Wildfires have ravaged the LA area for a week. Is there an end in sight?
As the deadly and devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area continue to rage, shell-shocked residents across the region are wondering: Is there an end in sight?
Experts told USA TODAY that long term, the blazes will be contained through a combination of firefighter effort and cooperation from Mother Nature.
The immediate forecast is far from helpful. "The Santa Ana winds will continue through Wednesday morning with moderate to strong gusts accompanied by low humidity," Toddi Steelman, a wildfire expert at Duke University, told USA TODAY on Monday. "These are tough conditions for firefighters and will make fire management challenging."
The National Weather Service issued a "particularly dangerous situation" red flag warning because of the forecast of high winds through Wednesday.
Still, there might be some hope for calmer winds by later in the week, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Heather Zehr told USA TODAY.
Steelman agreed, noting that Friday looks to be when the weather will shift to lower winds and higher humidities, which "will create even greater opportunities for the firefighters to make progress."
Is there much rain in the forecast?
Stanford University's Michael Wara told USA TODAY on Monday that the end of the fire season will be marked by precipitation: "Mother Nature decides when the fire season ends in California, and everywhere."
Indeed, an extended, major weather pattern shift would be extremely helpful in the firefight. This would include widespread rainfall, of which little is in the forecast. All of Southern California is expected to be drier than average over the next two weeks, according to a Monday forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.
Zehr said there may be some light showers next week, but nothing substantial. One concern about any heavy rain that might fall is that it might trigger mudslides in areas charred by the fires, the city of Los Angeles warned at a recent news conference.
Is there still such a thing as a fire season in California?
“We don’t have a fire season anymore; we have a fire year," Steelman said. "It is hard on communities and residents because they need to remain vigilant. At the same time, firefighters do not get much downtime because they are working year-round.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom confirmed this last week, saying: "November, December, now January ? there’s no fire season, it’s fire year. It’s year-round."
Are Santa Ana winds common this time of year?
“Santa Ana winds are typical for this time of year, but the drought and dryness are not ... This is yet one more sign that our climate is changing," Steelman said. "Drought is a climate signal."
In addition, she said that having Santa Anas that are 80-100 mph is "not typical. Those are pretty ferocious wind speeds and make firefighting very difficult. Aircraft and water drops are not as effective under those conditions and wind-driven embers leap over fire lines. Those are very dangerous conditions for firefighters and pilots."
And in California, though the Santa Ana winds and dryness are sometimes par for the course, climate change is leading to fire season starting earlier and ending later, according to CalFire. Longer and more intense dry seasons make forests more susceptible to severe wildfires.
How unusual was it for these blazes to proliferate in January?
“It is highly unusual to have fires in January like this – attributed to the very dry winter that Southern California is experiencing after a very dry summer combined with the Santa Ana winds,” Steelman said.
And could California see something like this again anytime soon?
"Yes, it could," said Wara, senior director for policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. Wara noted that the best way to prevent what happened last week is to build fire-resilient communities.
Steelman said, "It all depends on people and Mother Nature ? will the drought break? Will the winds cease? And will people be vigilant about not creating conditions for ignitions? For the sake of all the Californians who are suffering right now, I hope the answer to all those questions is yes."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When will the Los Angeles area wildfires finally be contained?