Can Nikki Haley’s campaign survive Super Tuesday?

What’s happening

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley hasn’t won a single Republican primary or caucus.

She finished behind former President Donald Trump by 32 percentage points in Iowa; by 11 points in New Hampshire; by 20 points in her home state; and by more than 40 points in Michigan. In the Nevada primary — a contest that Trump skipped — Haley lost to “none of these candidates” by 33 points.

Meanwhile, Trump is lapping Haley by an even larger margin in the current GOP delegate count: 122 to 24.

And there’s no sign that this dynamic will change anytime soon.

Super Tuesday is just a few days away. Fifteen states and one territory — including the big delegate prizes of California and Texas — are set to vote. A full 874 delegates, or 36% of this year’s GOP total, will be up for grabs.

Polling is sparse, but recent surveys from Vermont, Maine and Virginia — three Super Tuesday states with relatively moderate reputations — show Haley trailing Trump by 30 points, 58 points and 59 points, respectively.

Until now, Haley has been able to focus on one state at a time. She spent heavily in New Hampshire and South Carolina, placing second in both with about 40% of the vote — due in large part to her outsize support among independent voters, who were allowed to participate in those states’ open primaries.

But in Michigan, where Haley had far less time to campaign and invested far less money, she hit only 27%.

This same pattern is now likely to play out with increasing frequency in the next phase of the GOP nominating contest. Winner-take-all and winner-take-most primaries will become more common; contests that award delegates proportionally like Iowa and New Hampshire (where Haley came away with 8 delegates and 9 delegates, respectively) will largely peter out.

Some primaries will be open to independents, but many will be limited to registered Republicans (who overwhelmingly favor Trump). Unless something seismic happens, the former president’s lead will probably explode as a result.

So can Haley keep soldiering on?

Why there’s debate

In public, Haley — a former accountant — makes a seemingly simple argument for staying in the race: It’s the math, stupid.

“You need 1,215 delegates. Coming out of New Hampshire, [Trump] had 32, I had 17,” she told NBC News in February. “We’ve got multiple states after South Carolina — within 10 days, we’re going to have hit 20 states. Let it happen.

“Don’t discount that I ended up with 20% in Iowa when y’all said I wouldn’t make it,” Haley continued. “Don’t discount that I got 43% in New Hampshire, and don’t discount me now.

“Why would I get out as long as we keep it competitive?” she added.

Haley has a point. In a presidential primary election, candidates compete in a months-long, state-by-state calendar of primaries and caucuses. Whoever gets the most votes in a specific state is typically awarded the most delegates, and whoever is first to collect a majority of the total available delegates — or whoever remains after everyone else has dropped out — becomes the party’s “presumptive” nominee.

But runner-up candidates can win delegates too. And technically, the race isn’t over until the last states vote and the delegates make the nomination official at their party’s summer convention.

The problem for Haley, however, is that while Trump has only 122 delegates today, he’s about to win a lot more.

In a memo shared with the press, senior Trump advisers estimated that even if Haley performs relatively well in upcoming contests, Trump will secure the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination on March 19. If Haley underperforms, they added, Trump will hit the 1,215 mark a week earlier.

What’s next

Haley has vowed to compete through Super Tuesday. But she has pointedly refused to commit to anything beyond that.

March 5 is “as far as I’ve thought in terms of going forward,” Haley told reporters after casting her own vote in Saturday’s South Carolina primary.

And Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative group founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, announced Sunday that it would no longer be spending money on her behalf.

So it’s possible that Super Tuesday will be Haley’s last stand, or that she will drop out as soon as Trump reaches the 1,215 delegate mark.

Or not. Theoretically, Haley could also remain in the race even after Trump becomes the presumptive nominee. Anti-Trump conservatives have been floating various rationales: to weaken the former president for the general election; to set up a third-party run of her own; to tee up a post-Trump comeback in 2028.

Haley offered a justification of her own this week: that Trump winning the Republican nomination would be “like suicide for our country.”

“This may be his survival mode to pay his legal fees and get out of some sort of legal peril, but this is like suicide for our country,” she told the Wall Street Journal. “We’ve got to realize that if we don’t have someone who can win a general election, all we are doing is caving to the socialist left.”

And though Trump’s four upcoming trials on 91 criminal charges have mostly been delayed, it’s still possible that he could be a convicted felon by the time the GOP convention starts in July — in which case Haley might seek to position herself as a more “electable” plan B.

“People are not looking six months down the road when these court cases have taken place. He’s going to be in a courtroom all of March, April, May and June,” she told the Associated Press ahead of the South Carolina primary. “How in the world do you win a general election when these cases keep going and the judgments keep coming?”

Perspectives

Who knows what will happen if Trump is convicted

“As hard as it is to envision a scenario in which she wrests the nomination from Trump [at the convention], there isn’t much precedent for a nominee with four criminal indictments either. A felony conviction would breathe oxygen into the case for Haley, particularly if it led to a scenario where Haley continued to lead Biden in the polls and Trump was trailing, or where independents, women and suburbanites turned even more sharply against him.” — Charlie Mahtesian, Politico

I do: Republicans will just rally around him (again)

“Most of Trump’s trials won’t get formally started for a while, and they won’t be decided until much later this year, after most of the primaries have been held. I do not put much stock in the idea that a criminal conviction of Trump would prompt grassroots Republicans to abandon him and look around for other options. A conviction will probably just make the MAGA base love him even more, providing further evidence of how the sinister deep state is out to get him.” — Jim Geraghty, National Review

Haley doesn’t have to win. She just has to hurt Trump.

“The longer Haley stays in, the more she becomes a rallying point for Republicans who do not wish to be ruled by a degenerate cult. And the more Republicans grow accustomed to opposing Trump, the more precarious his situation becomes. A wave of Democratic voters might be needed to swamp Trump. But only a trickle of Republicans, withholding their support, can achieve a similar result.” — Francis Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times

She doesn't even have to hurt Trump. She just has to use him to improve her own brand.

"Every day that she officially remains an alternative to him ... is a day when Americans with an unfavorable view of him (the majority, mind you) have a newly favorable view of her. ... It’s a big, bold billboard for the new model Haley, who is taking on a titan and telling inconvenient truths." — Frank Bruni, New York Times

And maybe, in the process, Haley sets herself up for a third-party run ...

“The No Labels group that has contemplated backing a third-party ticket for president should recruit Nikki Haley. ... No Labels is a bipartisan effort to offer candidates who would appeal to a broader swath of voters, including moderates and independents. Haley has designed her campaign around being that kind of candidate, which has turned off the far right of the GOP — the ones who traditionally show up for primaries. It will be a different story in the general election.” — Ingrid Jacques, USA Today

... or 2028

“Instead of gunning for some sort of role in MAGA world, Haley can portray herself as the last person standing in the war against Trumpism — a position that many men before her have fought for and failed to achieve. If she can do that, she can consolidate a leadership future for herself, post-Trump.” — Elaine Godfrey, the Atlantic

Or perhaps she lays the groundwork for another 'traditional conservative'

“While the internal party reckoning that comes with a loss can be delayed, it can’t be denied. Over time, the opposition girds for its turn in power. … Haley’s determination to stay in the race probably won’t lead to her being president one day. But if the GOP is ever going to have a traditional conservative as a standard-bearer again, it will be because she helped preserve a safe space for them within the party.” — Jonah Goldberg, Los Angeles Times