While convention ratings show waning viewership, experts say there is more to watch for
Republicans have been swarming Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention starting Monday to formally nominate former president Donald Trump as their 2024 presidential candidate.
After the assassination attempt on Trump Saturday, convention officials have said the gathering will go on as planned, albeit with enhanced security in some areas.
A convention committee already signed off on a party platform that closely mirrors Trump's common talking points. The schedule so far includes stops at lots of breweries and a speech from Kanye's ex Amber Rose.
Experts say the very presence of television coverage changed the nature of the conventions, making them more choreographed and strategic rallies. The now-predictable nature of the conventions has not helped television ratings. In 2020, 24.6 and 23.8 million Americans older than 2 tuned into the DNC and the RNC respectively, compared to 29.8 and 32.2 million in 2016, according to Nielsen.
But conventions still have the potential to make an impact for viewers and the parties.
More: The Trump bump shows up in presidential debate ratings, but how do these clashes compare?
Ratings: How many people watch the conventions?
For convention audience, Nielsen measures the percentage of television-owning households that tuned in. The data does not capture people streaming the conventions online.
The final day of the conventions usually draw the most viewers. In 2020, in-person events were canceled or scaled back due to the pandemic and proceedings were broadcast virtually.
Here were the day-by-day Nielsen ratings for the 2020 conventions:
2020 RNC
2020 RNC Day 4 - 14.7
2020 RNC Day 3 - 11.0
2020 RNC Day 2 - 12.2
2020 RNC Day 1 - 10.7
2020 DNC
2020 DNC Day 4 - 15.6
2020 DNC Day 3 - 14.6
2020 DNC Day 2 - 12.6
2020 DNC Day 1 - 12.7
Looking back further, average ratings across all convention days have been on the decline since 2008 when John McCain and Barack Obama accepted their nominations, Nielsen data shows.
What viewers at home don't see and why it matters
Conventions were once days-long debates amongst the party to weigh their options for candidates. But with television coverage, the appearance of conflict within the party became politically risky and the events morphed into something more scripted, according to Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University.
"They became giant pep rallies for both parties trying to put forth a united front in support of their nominees," Panagopoulos told USA TODAY. "Over that time period, we saw a corresponding decline in viewership at conventions."
But Panagopoulos said that conventions are still significant this election and future elections. The conventions can give rising stars within the party a chance to get on the national stage and plant seeds for a bigger run in the future. For example, Panagopoulos saw a lot of potential in Barack Obama at the 2004 DNC when he delivered a "stirring speech."
And while viewership has declined, millions of people still tune in and some could be undecided voters
"When elections are very close and decided by razor thin margins that can be consequential," Panagopoulos said. "So you can't over look that."
Lastly, he said there is always the potential for a surprising big change as the party leadership gathers.
Why more people might tune in this year
The assassination attempt on Trump will increase the focus around the RNC, but even before Saturday's shooting, Frank Sesno, a professor and director of strategic initiatives at the GW School of Media and Public Affairs, said conventions have potential impact that goes beyond the number of viewers. Even in how they position their platform, they hold the power to inspire delegates and motivate decided voters.
Conventions were also once an opportunity to polish the narrative of a candidate to sway swing voters, he said. But this year may not lend the same opportunity.
"The more the narrative is is established, the harder it is to change the narrative at a convention," Sesno told USA TODAY in an interview. "And the narratives of these two men are very, very well established."
However, persisting questions on Biden's candidacy could upend a once predictable outlook for the conventions.
"If Biden stays in, there is a lot of suspense...If he's not the nominee, then we're in a completely different place," Sesno said. "Then what would be normal ratings gets blown out of the water, because now what we're watching is a reality show."
Even in the RNC, surprises are possible and voters should still look for how the party packages their message, Sesno said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: RNC ratings: What to know about TV coverage in history