Where Trump turned things around in Bucks County, the most purple county in key PA
Turnout in Bucks County on Tuesday was just shy of the record-breaking 81% seen in 2020, but with a much different result compared to four years ago.
Unofficial results posted by the Bucks County Board of Elections estimates that 396,496 votes were cast compared to 493,870 registered on Election Day, a turnout rate of about 80.3% of voters.
Former President Donald Trump had a thin lead over Vice President Kamala Harris with a 49.4% to 49.3% split of the 394,903 votes cast in that race, according to the preliminary results. Some 13,000 votes, a mix of provincial ballots that need to be reviewed for eligibility and overseas ballots, will be counted in the coming days and are not included in this analysis.
Here’s a breakdown of how Bucks County turned out, how they voted in the presidential race and why Trump did well in the most purple county in southeastern Pennsylvania.
Turnout extremely high in every precinct
The majority of voters in each of Bucks County’s 304 voting precincts across its 54 municipalities turned out for the 2024 election on Tuesday.
The highest turnout was 92.5% in New Britain Township South 2, which votes at Simon Butler Elementary School along Brittany Drive, with an estimated 1,444 votes cast in the presidential race.
Nearly 200 precincts reported turnouts of more than 80% and most of the remaining precincts held above 70% turnout, according to the unofficial results.
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The lowest turnout reported in the county was at Bensalem Lower Middle 5 precinct — the Bucks County Free Library branch polling place along Hulmeville Road — where 57%, or about 823 voters, turned out.
There also doesn’t appear to be a correlation between turnout rates and either candidates’ victory.
Harris won that New Britain Township polling place by just approximaely 8 percentage points and Trump took the Bensalem one by approximately 3 percentage points, but the highest and lowest turnouts in Bucks are peppered with victories for both candidates.
The biggest wins for Trump and Harris in Bucks County
Bensalem had the most votes of any other municipality on Tuesday at 32,024 cast, with Trump taking 50.8% to 47.7% for Harris there.
Middletown voters were second with 27,891, a nearly identical but reverse split there with Harris winning by almost 3 percentage points.
Harris also took 50% of the 26,865 votes cast in Bristol Township, with Trump losing by 1.2 percentage points there.
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Trump took 55.7% of the 26,838 votes cast in Northampton, with Harris losing that municipality by approximately 12.6 percentage points.
Central Bucks County towns such as New Hope and Doylestown boroughs gave Harris some of her largest leads, defeating Trump by 35.7 percentage points and 32.8 percentage points in those towns, respectively, while Trump had his strongest showings in Upper Bucks County.
Trump took Nockamixon by 28 percentage points, Haycock by almost 22 percentage points and Durham by approximately 20 percentage points.
While Harris was able to claim victory in 20 municipalities across Bucks County, Trump ultimately walked away from this race with 34 in his corner.
Harris underperformed in Bucks County, compared to Biden in 2020
Following a national trend, one thing that stood out about returns for Harris on Tuesday: She largely underperformed in Bucks County compared to Joe Biden in 2020.
Harris received more votes than Biden did four years ago in just 20 precincts, and the largest gain was only 3 percentage points higher than Biden in the Middletown Upper 9 precinct — the polling place at the Middletown Township Building.
Harris was also unable to flip any precincts that previously went to Trump in 2020, while Trump on Tuesday was able to flip about 45 precincts that he lost four years ago.
The economy and rhetoric may have swayed voters
Republican political strategist Sam Chen, a principal director of the Allentown-based communications firm The Liddell Group, said Trump’s win in Bucks County was a bit of a surprise. He added that a few key benchmarks might explain the defeat for Harris.
While an algorithm that Chen’s firm runs had Harris ahead in Pennsylvania on Monday night, public perception of the economy was one issue across multiple swing states that may have helped feed Trump’s momentum going into the polls.
“What matters is where the economy is perception-wise," Chen said. "When the economy is perceived to do well, then other issues rise to the forefront, But when the economy is perceived to be doing poorly, then it's very bad for the incumbent party and no other issues rise to the forefront."
Trump’s campaign ads criticized Harris for inflation and repeated clips of her touting “Bidenomics” for months.
“The perception of the economy has not been good, despite what the numbers might say and … (Trump) just hammered her on that and that message stuck,” Chen said.
Chen also said that Harris was a “bad candidate” for Bucks County voters during the 2020 primary and that her campaign rhetoric seemed to drive away “disaffected independents or Republicans” in southeastern Pennsylvania overall.
But, in here a campaign stop in Washington Crossing in Bucks, Harris appeared with over 100 Republicans, urging voters to put country over party and with a message that she could be a candidate for all people, even those who had voted for Trump in the past.
Harris put too much emphasis on Trump as a threat to democracy, according to Chen.
“It wasn't even just calling Donald Trump as fascist, but calling these Republicans fascists and saying Republicans don't care about democracy. A lot of people felt that was personal — against them, not necessarily against their candidate,” Chen said.
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: How Trump took Bucks County, PA at polls in key swing state victory