What does Trump need most from his vice president?

What’s happening

Now that Donald Trump and President Biden have cruised through their respective party primaries, and rumors that Biden might replace Vice President Kamala Harris have been put to bed, there’s only one real question left about what the presidential ballot will look like in November: Who will Trump select as his running mate?

Though the final decision may not come for another couple of months, Trump’s “veepstakes” appears to be in full swing. Over the weekend, the former president invited several of the top contenders onstage with him at a high-dollar Republican fundraiser at his Mar-a-Lago resort, an event many considered to be an “audition” of sorts for vice presidential hopefuls. According to a flurry of recent media reports, Trump has kicked his search for a running mate into high gear over the past few weeks and is relishing the opportunity to put the potential choices to the test.

Countless names have been floated as Trump’s running mate, some more far-fetched than others. But even the shortlist of the truly realistic contenders can swell to include dozens of people. The most-frequently suggested options include South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem had been widely viewed as a top contender, perhaps even a frontrunner, but reports suggest that her recent revelation that she killed her family dog years ago may have derailed her chances.

One name that never appears is Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence, who instantly became a villain among the MAGA faithful when he refused to cater to Trump’s demands to block the 2020 election from being certified. Pence, who briefly joined the race for the GOP nomination last year, has said he will not support Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Why there’s debate

Historically, vice presidents have tended to be chosen based on how they might help counter a presidential candidate’s perceived weaknesses. Choosing Pence, for example, was seen as a way to comfort evangelical voters who may have been skeptical of Trump in 2016 and Harris added both a woman and a person of color to Biden’s ticket.

The same could be true for Trump this time around, though his needs are different. Many political analysts argue that he’d be best served by selecting a woman as his running mate to counter his vulnerabilities on abortion and high-profile legal cases centered around his alleged mistreatment of women. Some also make the case that a person of color like Scott or Rubio could bring new voters into the GOP fold or that a more mainstream Republican like Burgum might prove appealing to swing voters who are turned off by Trump’s erratic behavior.

But others argue that none of these considerations matter to Trump. In their eyes, what he really needs is someone who is loyal to him above anything else, regardless of their personal demographics.

There’s also a lot of skepticism about whether vice presidents really matter much at all. That may be true with Trump, who is such a towering figure that very few voters may have their opinions of him influenced by his choice of running mate.

What’s next

Trump could announce his VP pick at any time, but most reports suggest he won’t reveal his choice until shortly before the Republican National Convention in mid-July.

Perspectives

A female VP would help counter Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities

“A woman vice presidential pick would also help Trump on two issues on which he will have to play defense: abortion and his own baggage in dealing with women.” — J.T. Young, The Hill

Trump’s choice should show voters that he’s able to make sound, practical decisions

“To broaden his appeal, Trump needs the most un-Trumpy option available, which is the kind of decision Trump is extremely unlikely to prefer. But Trump would need someone stable, reassuring, safe, predictable, interested in the details of policy and preferably a generation younger. ‘Less erratic than Trump’ is a really low bar to clear.” — Jim Geraghty, Washington Post

The only real criteria is being onboard with Trump’s campaign to undermine democracy

“Trump will select for loyalty — not to a set of ideas or to the Republican Party but to his absolute right to power, with or without the consent of the governed. And this vice president will be expected to do what Pence would not: to keep Trump in office no matter what the Constitution says.” — Jamelle Bouie, New York Times

The old logic behind running mate selections doesn’t apply to Trump

“Conventionally … The VP rounds out the ticket, compensating for a presidential nominee’s demographic, geographic, or ideological deficiencies. Once selected, the VP then serves as the attack dog on the trail, retailing criticisms of the opposing party that are too sordid or callous to come from the august mouth of a potential American president. None of that much applies to Donald Trump this go around.” — Noah Rothman, National Review

A VP who’s too mainstream could disappoint Trump’s most fervent followers

“Trump's net is already quite wide—just look at any swing state poll. If anything, widening the net too much could yield some dangers, particularly a decline in enthusiasm.” — Juan P. Villasmil, Newsweek

A running mate’s race or gender doesn’t seem make much difference

“I agree that Trump will be inclined to choose a woman or person of color. … But I think it's important to note, too, that many arguments made about the benefits of an identity-based VP pick aren’t always backed up by evidence. Not to say that there isn't good reason to pick someone who’s not a white man! Just that the expected electoral advantages don't always materialize.” — Cooper Burton, ABC News

He should pick someone who’s a worthy heir as leader of the GOP

“Who, as heir apparent, would have the healthiest influence on the GOP long-term? Ideally, conservatives should prefer someone as vice president who’ll not only behave responsibly in office and prefer classically liberal policies but who’ll stand a chance at defeating the various authoritarian monsters who are destined to contend for the party’s nomination in 2028.” — Nick Catoggio, Dispatch

Superficial characteristics matter the most

“He’ll want someone who looks good on television but not someone who might outshine him. Someone who isn’t polarizing to the MAGA base but who demonstrates range. He’ll choose a candidate with experience, or at least with some record of being a winner.” — Elaine Godfrey, Atlantic

Trump’s vice president won’t matter at all

“Trump is a known quantity, with 100% name identification. The idea that a sidekick could change voters’ opinions about him seems implausible.” — Jonah Goldberg, Los Angeles Times