The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh's replacement. Here are the possible contenders

BEIRUT (AP) — The militant Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.

Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago following the group’s attack on southern Israel.

“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.

Haniyeh headed the group’s political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri’s post has remained empty since his death.

The group’s Shura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh’s funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council’s membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group in Gaza, the West Bank and diaspora and those imprisoned.

A full leadership meeting may be complicated by their inability to convene. Many of the group's nearly 60 members are in Gaza.

Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said a consensus candidate may be named before the Shura is able to convene, with a formal election to be held by the council later. The elections were already delayed this year because of the war.

One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances, and with that, his good offices with Iran and other backers.

A-Masri said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, another Haniyeh deputy and a former leader of the group, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.

“It will not be easy,” said al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.

Hamas’ new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises — an unlikely option at this stage.

The role of the group’s leader is also important in maintaining relations and support from Hamas’ allies outside the Palestinian territories. Equally important is the backing of regional allies of the next leader.

Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him.

But Mashaal has good relations with Turkey and Qatar, where the group is based, and is considered a more moderate figure who headed the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.

Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figu re leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.

Al-Hayya, who is Sinwar’s deputy, is a prominent leader living originally in Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran, Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. He was the first leader to speak after the attack on Haniyeh.

He said the killing of Haniyeh proves that “our options (with Israel) is blood and resistance,” not talks or negotiations.

“As much as it pains us the killing of Haniyeh, we reassure the nation, our option in Hamas and resistance is continuing with a clear strategy...that doesn’t deviate with the martyrdom of a leader or 10,” al-Hayya said, speaking from Tehran. Jabarin was standing next to him.

After years of cold relations with the Iran-led “axis of resistance” over Hamas’s backing of the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria’s conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.

Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad.

“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn’t see his leadership as problematic,” al-Masri said.

A third possible contender, said al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief, and is considered close to Mashaal. Moussa Abu Marzouk, Mashaal’s deputy, is another potential candidate.

With cease-fire talks faltering, Israel’s strategy so far appeared to have left the group with few options now: surrender or continue war.

Hugh Lovatt, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Haniyeh’s killing and the faltered cease-fire talks are likely to “strengthen hardliners within the movement and further shift Hamas toward hardline strategies and away from diplomacy and politics.”

But it is not down to Sinwar alone to back the successor, said Lovatt. It is more about internal consensus-making between the Gaza leadership and those abroad.

Qatar, which has been hosting Hamas leadership and is a key mediator in the negotiations for a cease-fire, could play the role of arbiter in naming a successor in case of a lack of internal or regional consensus.

The war in Gaza started on Oct.7 after the Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 people. The group also took 250 others hostage.

Israel’s retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced most of the population to flee their homes. Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count. The war has also weakened Hamas’ role in Gaza, and possibly in choosing the group's future leader.