Do vice-presidential candidates matter? Voters say JD Vance, Tim Walz make a difference
Rhonda Woods is a 71-year-old retired nurse who has voted across party lines her entire life.
She cast ballots for Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush twice, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. This year, she said, voting for Trump is not an option ? something she felt even more sure about when the Republican presidential nominee tapped Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate.
"I think it is important that we get somebody in office that can take over," said Woods, who lives in the battleground state of Michigan. "It's kind of stupid to think that a vice president isn’t important, right?"
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Vice presidential candidates have often been seen as understudies, silver medalists or the forgotten middle child. This year could be different. Voters like Woods say they are indeed paying close attention to Vance and his Democratic rival, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, during this truncated general election cycle as the candidates barnstorm the swing states.
It's a spotlight that is likely to intensify as their Oct. 1 debate approaches in New York City.
Recent polling from USA TODAY and Suffolk University found that when pitted against one another, Walz is more favored than Vance. And while Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be atop the nation's presidential ballots and therefore top of mind for voters, observers say their running mates could help tip the scales in an election that may come down to the narrowest of margins in any one critical battleground.
Interest in this year's vice presidential candidates has been top of mind for much of the campaign cycle. The COVID pandemic, the ages of both Biden (81) and Trump (78) and the assassination attempt against the former Republican president serve as stark reminders that every chief executive needs a capable No. 2, just in case.
"I think they matter, but on the margins," said University of Dayton professor Christopher Devine, who's studied the impact of vice presidential candidates. "If this is an election decided on the margins, we could look back and say that was consequential."
VP resumes, gaffes dominate headlines
For both VP candidates, the attention hasn't slowed down since they each secured their party's nomination this summer.
Reporting by the Associated Press and New York Times highlighted Vance's connections to the people behind the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, a policy blueprint for a future Republican administration which both the Ohio senator and Trump have sought to distance themselves from. Harris' campaign resurfaced Vance's past remarks about women and families, including his criticism of "childless cat ladies" and suggestion that women who focus on their careers are on a "path to misery."
Democrats have accused Vance of fixating on childlessness. It's literally part of what first inspired Walz to brand Vance as "weird" before Harris had even picked the governor as her running mate. Vance's debut also invoked comparisons to Sarah Palin, the little-known former Alaska GOP governor who some believe cost John McCain the presidency in 2008 for her tendency to invite scandal and go rogue once she'd made the national spotlight as his running mate.
"That kind of s---'s just bizarre, and that could peel away some Republicans," said Chris Redfern, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. "You're not going to gain Republican support from JD Vance, but you could certainly lose thousands of votes in a state like Michigan."
More: 'He seems real to me': Tim Walz leads JD Vance on favorability in exclusive poll
Criticism of Vance isn't limited to his policy ideas. Social media users have been quick to mock his interactions on the campaign trail, including an awkward stop at a Georgia donut shop that went viral. But allies of Vance and Trump say they've been impressed with the Ohio senator's media savvy and willingness to face his detractors head on.
Walz, meanwhile, has received renewed scrutiny for his resume as governor and congressman.
GOP leaders have attacked Walz's progressive policy actions as governor, such as making menstrual products available in boys' and girls' school bathrooms and protecting reproductive rights. Vance went after Walz's military record and accused the governor of stolen valor, which angered some veterans and Republicans alike.
Walz's response to the violence following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, as well as his administration’s oversight of the nation's largest pandemic fraud scheme, has painted a complicated picture of his actions during his tenure as governor and whether he’s fit to serve as No. 2.
Walz and his administration's responses to his actions during the civil unrest in 2020 have remained vague. A public records non-profit recently sued the Minnesota Department of Public Safety (DPS) for information and transcripts of interviews done with Walz's staff and possibly himself to learn more about how the administration handled the violence that resulted in an estimated $2 billion in damages. The non-profit requested a jury trial and is waiting for an answer from the state.
What do voters think of Vance, Walz?
Will the good, bad and ugly publicity be enough to sway voters? Trump in one recent interview said he doesn't seem to think so.
"Historically, the choice of a vice president makes no difference," Trump said during the National Association of Black Journalists Conference in July. "You're voting for the president. You can have a vice president who's outstanding in every way, and I think JD is. I think that all of them would have been. But you're not voting that way. You're voting for the president, you're voting for me."
Washington state resident and lawyer Erik Thacker, 35, disagrees. He believes vice presidential picks matter, and they were a part of why he voted for Biden in 2020. Thacker saw Harris as a more progressive version of Biden, who he described as an "establishment Democrat" to USA TODAY.
"I was like, 'I'm on board with this,' (picking her as running mate) made me more likely to vote for him," he said.
Thacker, a self-described independent, voted for Obama, then Mitt Romney, in 2016 he wrote in a third-party candidate, and in 2020 he voted for Biden.
"When I was younger, I sort of thought VPs didn’t really do anything at all," Thacker said. "I do feel like they've taken on more responsibility, we've at least sort of increased scrutiny of them in the public eye. I think we’re talking about them more."
Thacker said he'll vote for Harris this year. Choosing Walz as her running mate wasn't necessarily the deciding factor, but a solidification that Thacker is making the right choice for himself.
"I like a fair amount of Walz’s policies from Minnesota," he said. “I thought (his picking) was a little bit of signal that (Harris) might be breaking from the more centrist administration of Joe Biden."
Republican Roxanne Hoben is also heartened by her preferred candidate's running mate. The 55-year-old Pennsylvania resident was all in on Trump from the beginning ? and she initially hoped the former president would choose South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott as his No. 2. But the more she learns about Vance, the more she likes.
"I like that he was in the Marines," Hoben said. "He has that disciplined mindset about him. I think he has family, God and country foremost in his mind, so that's a big plus. He’s very personable. I could listen to him for hours. He doesn't get on my nerves, if you know what I mean."
More: Donald Trump missteps stir growing Republican worry, campaign seeks Vance reset
While Trump's choice ultimately didn't affect her decision for November, Hoben said the assassination attempt against him in July underscored the need for him to choose the right running mate.
"If he would've had his head turned slightly more, he would've been gone," she said. "You’re going to need somebody who's going to step right into his shoes."
Woods, the retired nurse, isn't sold on either vice presidential pick yet. Vance is just a younger Trump, she told USA TODAY, "worse in a way."
On the flip side, Walz being "one heartbeat away from being president of the United States" isn't reassuring to her either.
"Walz is a nice guy," Woods said. "Can I see him being president? I don’t know."
Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA TODAY focusing on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's candidacy. You can reach her at [email protected], on X @woodyreports, and on Threads @samjowoody. She reported from Minneapolis.
Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio. She reported from Cincinnati.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How JD Vance, Tim Walz could shape 2024 presidential election