Trump poised to sweep "Super Tuesday." But poll raises some warning signals for the fall.
Former President Donald Trump is poised to sweep the "Super Tuesday" electoral contests but a poll issued Monday revealed some warning signs signaled by voters in those very states.
The survey of voters in the "Super Tuesday" states showed Trump trailing President Joe Biden by a narrow margin in which the incumbent is up 47% to 45% among those who said they intend to cast a vote, with a 1.7 percentage point margin of error.
The poll's scope is limited as it surveyed electorates in only the March 5 primaries that are taking place in mostly solid blue and red states, including California, Massachusetts, Alabama and Oklahoma. But they also include states that have been battlegrounds in recent elections, including Colorado, Maine and Virginia.
One area of concern for the former president and his White House comeback campaign in the poll by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research was the responses of those who said they refused to cast votes for Trump.
Why some voters said they would choose Trump on their ballots
Asked why, the top three responses were his connection to the Jan. 6 violence at the U.S. Capitol (30%), his "personal behavior" (21%) and the four sets of criminal indictments against him (14%).
Kevin Wagner, an FAU pollster and political scientist, said it caught his attention that 28.5% of the Republicans surveyed showed unhappiness with the former president's conduct.
"Some of those things, especially Jan. 6, might be durable," Wagner said of voter turn-off by Trump. "It might give us an early insight into voters who just won't change their minds that they're not going to rejoin the former president's coalition."
The poll findings, however, come as a running average of Trump's favorability has him on an upswing.
The FiveThirtyEight website listed Trump on Monday at a 52.2% unfavorable rating versus 43.4% favorable, a gap of 8.8 points underwater. But that is markedly better than the negative 18-point gap on July 19 when Trump's unfavorable rating stood at 56.8% against a just a 38.8% favorable average.
Speaking on Monday afternoon from his Palm Beach club, Trump said the indictments against him have helped his candidacy, not hurt it.
"Historically, a thing like what I've been going through would have hurt a political party or a political candidate terrifically. You wouldn't even run. You wouldn't be able to run, you'd get out, it's happened over many years, many times," Trump said from Mar-a-Lago. "In this case the polls show I am much more popular than before weaponization."
Trump again asserted the indictments are the result of a conspiracy led by the Biden White House, and called on the president to "drop" the charges.
"Biden ought to drop all of these things," he said. "Frankly he may do better if he does because people would say, 'Wow that was really reasonable.'"
FAU-Mainstreet poll: Will non-Trump voter some home in November?
Wagner said one of the important "puzzles" that are pieced together after presidential primary seasons is the courting of intra-party voters by that party's nominee.
"The expectation is that, once the dust settles, that the voters who didn't vote for the one that won tend to come home at a very high rate, almost universally so," Wagner said.
Even in cases where there has been a bitter or unusually divisive primary fight — Wagner cited the 2016 dual between eventual Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont — a party's various factions ultimately do join forces.
Trump should expect the same, but the FAU-Mainstreet poll results could be hinting that it's an open-ended question on the eve of Super Tuesday, Wagner said.
"Because of how unique the former president is, and how well held beliefs are about him, we don't know to what extent the voters choosing to vote for Nikki Haley or somebody else are likely to come home," he said. "Many have expressed that they not going to come home."
Wagner allowed that it's still relatively early in the GOP primary season — just a handful of states have held primaries and caucuses so far — and what voters say now may be very different than how they act in November. But he said it's still a factor to watch.
"In an election that is likely to be close, and we have it very close, if a good number of those non-Trump voters do not return to the former president then he is going to have a tough time," said Wagner.
2024 politics Trump hails ruling allowing him on Colorado ballot. Will speak on the case from Mar-a-Lago.
Unpopular rematch? FAU-Mainstreet poll suggests Republicans and Democrats eager to cast votes
Nonetheless, voters in both parties seem eager to decide the 2024 presidential election as 89% of all respondents said they are "very likely" going to vote in November.
That included 91% of Democrats, 90% of Republicans and 84% of independent voters.
"The enthusiasm across the board is very high. Both for the primary and the general election," said Wagner. "That was a little higher than we thought it would be. Especially when there's a lot of concern being expressed around that people don't like the match up. But whether they like it or not people do seem to be intending to participate."
The high number for Democratic voters, Wagner, said also "surprised" him as the chatter surrounding Biden has often focused on "dissatisfaction" with the president and his advanced age. At the recent Michigan primary, a protest vote against Biden resulted in more than 101,000 "uncommitted" votes, or 13.2% of ballots cast.
Biden got the support of 86% of Democrats surveyed in the FAU-Mainstreet poll, which Wagner said is not unusual for a presidential incumbent.
Overall, the poll "didn't see sizable portion of dissatisfaction with Biden "in our numbers" that Wagner said would "suggest" those voters would not come home to him.
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at [email protected]. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Trump to sweep "Super Tuesday." But FAU poll raises warning signs.
