Trump’s other victory: How he shifted the conversation on immigration

On Friday, the Senate voted to advance the Laken Riley Act, legislation that would allow for the deportation of migrants who are arrested for theft, burglary, or shoplifting. The biggest surprise? Ten Democrats joined along.

That vote came after 48 Democrats joined Republicans in the House of Representatives to advance the bill, despite civil rights groups warning that the legislation could grease the skids for Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation push.

As if that weren’t enough, 61 Democrats joined House Republicans on Thursday to advance legislation by Nancy Mace that would make sex crimes like rape a deportable offense, even though sex crimes are already subject to the punishment.

All of this comes as Trump prepares to return to the White House. The Republican has promised to enact mass deportations of immigrants living in the United States illegally, and polling shows that a large slice of American voters support Trump’s plans. A decade after his rhetoric was slammed as xenophobic, racist, and out of step with much of the American public, it seems a significant number of Americans are in line with where Trump is.

It signifies a shift in the politics of immigration since Trump announced his first candidacy for president. Back then, his calling Mexicans rapists, drug dealers and criminals lost him multiple brand endorsements from Macy’s and ESPN. NBC stopped broadcasting The Apprentice in response.

In 2013, Marco Rubio, an up-and-coming freshman Republican from Florida, co-authored an immigration bill with Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham to offer a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

But even though it passed the Senate, Republican voters loathed the legislation and out of fear of his right flank, then-House Speaker John Boehner refused to put the bill up for a vote. Republicans faced a predicament: They needed to appeal to a broader swath of the country that was becoming browner, but their largely white GOP base did not want the party to take any steps to fix the problem.

In response, Hillary Clinton’s campaign adopted slogans like “stronger together,” and “love trumps hate.” When Trump won in 2016, Democrats put signs in their front yard proclaiming “no human is illegal.” During the 2019 Democratic presidential primary debates, almost all of the candidates supported decriminalizing crossing the border. Joe Biden was one of two who didn’t, insisting, “If you cross the border illegally, you should be able to be sent back. It's a crime.”

Biden would later become the 2020 nominee, and eventually president. But there were signs of cracks when Hispanics in Miami and the Rio Grande Valley shifted to the right in 2020. When he entered the White House, an influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border led to voter discontent.

As White House sources told The Independent last week, some in the administration believed that Democratic opposition to Trump’s immigration policies in his first term made it nearly impossible for Biden to take a tougher approach when migrant numbers increased.

However, the increase in immigration led to public opinion shifting. The number of Americans in favor of less immigration spiked. Even Latino support for a wall along the border and mass deportations increased, as immigration emerged as a top issue for the group.

Much of the coarse rhetoric Trump used about invasion has now pervaded the rest of the Republican political discourse. Democrats, in desperation, hoped to tie border security provisions to aid Ukraine and Israel to stave off critiques they were soft on the border.

Not only that, Trump has been rewarded for all his tough talk. Far from alienating Latino voters, he flipped numerous majority-Hispanic areas in Texas and won over younger Hispanic men, which proved crucial to winning states like Arizona and Nevada.

In short, Republicans got the best of both worlds. They won over Hispanic voters while not having to alienate their core base of largely white voters without college degrees. Moreover, Trump won over his Republican critics like Graham and Rubio, who is set to be his secretary of state.

This means Trump will likely face less opposition to his agenda on immigration in the way he did in 2018, during the height of family separation at the border. Moreover, rather than being the loyal opposition, Democrats will feel compelled to show voters they side with Trump on border security and vote along with these provisions.

None of this is to say that Trump’s policies will be the consensus permanently. It could be, just like in 2018, that many people see his policies as too draconian or too cruel. They could fail to pass Congress or people simply forget about immigration altogether.

But the fact remains that Trump moved the Overton window of what was politically palatable for a nation that sees itself as welcoming toward immigrants. They might still be welcome, but it will come with stipulations.