Trump is likely to violate his gag order again. Jail him if he does.
Donald Trump spent most of his adult life testing the limits of what he can get away with.
That way of life cost him $9,000 for contempt of court in the first of his four criminal trials. Trump had been repeatedly warned but, like in previous court cases, could not control himself.
His next transgression – and history strongly suggests there will be another – must sting more than a four-figure fine for a billionaire politician who raises millions from his supporters by playing victim to being held accountable.
New York Judge Juan Merchan must jail Trump for at least one night if he steps out of bounds again. It might be the only way to get through to him.
Trump has to sit quietly in court. It's not something he loves to do.
Trump is a control freak, freaked out by his lack of control in a dingy Manhattan courtroom. He must sit still and silently listen to the seedy allegations against him.
Michael Cohen, a once-loyal lawyer and fixer, will spell out at some point in the trial exactly how he says Trump paid $130,000 in 2016 to keep a porn star quiet about a sexual encounter out of fear that it could impact the presidential election that year.
Stormy Daniels, the adult-film star, gets a shot at telling her story, too. And she's not so impressed with the defendant, who long styled himself as New York's most interesting Lothario celebrity.
Their testimony will deconstruct the story of Trump, as told by Trump, and the notion that he commands fealty from his inner circle.
Trump was already primed to erupt. He continually complains about how cold the courtroom is. He seems convinced the courtroom artist is out to get him. And hours in court inhibit his well-known habit of downing Diet Cokes, which may contribute to his tendency to nod off while an audience mocks him.
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Things in the courthouse aren't going great for Trump
Merchan's order finding Trump in contempt Tuesday could be the thing that prompts his next gag-order-violating outburst. The judge cites seven posts Trump made on his social media site Truth Social and two posts on his campaign website this month as violations of the order. Each one carried a $1,000 fine. And he must remove the posts.
But it's Merchan's conclusion that shows the real looming threat. The order warns that the court "will not tolerate continued willful violations of its lawful orders and that if necessary and appropriate under the circumstances, it will impose an incarceratory punishment."
That's what the prosecutors have asked for if Trump again violates the order. And they've played a winning hand so far. Merchan agreed with them in nine out of 10 instances where they accused Trump of crossing the line.
And Trump's defense in challenging those claims was so inadequate that the judge warned his lawyer last week, "You're losing all credibility."
Trump has been awake long enough in this trial to know things are going badly for him. And there's nothing he can do about it.
Trump seems comfortable being in contempt of court
So we've got prosecutors who want Trump jailed if he violates the order again. And we have a judge who seems willing to jail Trump if necessary. How will Trump respond?
We know from his recent civil court defeats that Trump doesn't learn much of a lesson about contempt on his first or second try.
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He was found to be in contempt two years ago for not turning over documents in a New York civil case that accused his company of engaging in business fraud in how it valued properties. That put in place a $10,000-per-day fine that eventually reached $110,000 before Trump paid up.
During a civil trial in October, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron fined Trump $5,000 for contempt of court for a social media post attacking his court clerk and then $10,000 the following week when Trump repeated the attack while speaking with reporters outside the courtroom.
Trump lost that case in February, and the $454 million verdict stands as he appeals.
We can expect more of the same from Trump
Trump also pushed his luck in another civil case that ended with a verdict holding him liable for defaming the writer E. Jeanne Carroll. Judge Lewis Kaplan, hearing the case that ended with Trump on the hook for $83.3 million in punitive and compensatory damages, threatened at one point to have Trump removed from the courtroom for loudly muttering during testimony.
"Mr. Trump, I hope I don't have to consider excluding you from the trial,” Kaplan warned Trump. “I understand you're probably eager for me to do that.”
“I would love it,” Trump told the judge
"You just can’t control yourself in these circumstances, apparently,” Kaplan said to that.
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That's the ball game for Trump. He can't control himself. To do so would be to acknowledge a flaw in how he behaves. He could never muster that type of introspection. So he attacks and attacks and attacks.
That's what he's likely to do here. It's his only way of thinking. He's boxed in by his own lack of imagination.
So box Trump in for real if he pulls another stunt. Put him behind bars. Lock the cell door. Feed him jail food. Make him follow jail rules and a jail schedule.
Finally take control of the control freak, if only to let him know it can't happen.
Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump's gag order fine won't change his control freak behavior
