Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why
A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.
Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.
At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.
However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.
As of Thursday morning, Miller now predicts Trump will win the election with 275 electoral votes – just above the 270 minimum needed - putting Harris on 263. However, the expert is unable to explain why the change has happened - and isn’t convinced it will last.
“We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7,” Miller’s website reads.
Miller’s methodology relies on PredictIT, a popular political betting website. Miller translates daily pricing data from the site to estimate vote share, claiming this method is more reliable than typical opinion polls.
“Prediction markets are more reliable than pollsters and pundits,” Miller told Northwestern University. “A betting market isn’t asking people to give an opinion or preference but to put their money down.”
“When you put your money down, you believe what you are betting on,” he added. “You might not like the outcome, but you believe it will happen.”
This election marks “the first time in history” a race has switched between a tossup and a landslide so many times, Miller told Fortune Magazine.
“The dynamic of this election is that after one candidate jumps way out in front, the race always works its way back to even,” he said. “That’s where it stands now. I follow this minute by minute, and the results keep toggling back and forth around the 270 electoral
However, Miller does not believe Trump will remain ahead in his predictions as November 5 gets closer.
“We’re an incredibly divided nation,” Miller told Fortune. “The most likely trend over the next 26 days to November 5 is that the forecast keeps going back to a tossup. The next month will be a crazy time.”
Meanwhile, the latest average of national polls places Harris with a 2.6-point lead over Trump. Vance has also seen a popularity spike following his debate with Walz, according to a recent YouGov poll.