Storm tracker: National Hurricane Center tracking 5 disturbances in Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking five tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, the agency said in an advisory that was updated Thursday afternoon.
There has been a surprising lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the last few weeks, and the numerous disturbances, but no active storms, continues to be unusual.
"In my recent memory, it's the first time we've had no active named storms but five systems being monitored by NHC at the same time that were all listed as low probability," Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach said.
Where are those predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they're still coming.
Klotzbach says the five disturbances show how difficult it is for storms to organize currently: "I think I think what this highlights is just how marginal conditions are at the moment," he said.
The Atlantic has seen no named storm formations since Ernesto on August 12, according to Klotzbach, who said that only one other time since 1966 has the Atlantic not produced any named storms between August 13 and September 3. That other year was 1968 when a total of only 8 named storms formed.
"This pronounced quiet period is especially remarkable given that it coincides with the time of year where the Atlantic climatologically gets very busy," Klotzbach wrote in an online forecast update published Sept. 3.
5 waves … but no storms
The tropical disturbances currently being tracked are far from being named tropical storms. They're just tropical waves ? elongated areas of relatively low pressure that move from east to west across the tropics. To the west of the system, there is often good weather. To the east, though, cloudiness and heavy rain are often found.
Tropical waves can lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone, according to NOAA. This includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
As for what this means meteorologically, "We're now near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so there are areas that are trying to form, but right now vertical wind shear is pretty elevated across most of the basin."
Wind shear acts to tear developing storms and hurricanes apart before they can get organized.
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Atlantic storm tracker
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NHC tracking 5 tropical waves in Atlantic
The first system is currently producing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas, the NHC said Thursday morning.
The hurricane center said upper-level winds are expected to become "less conducive for development" by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system. However, although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so, the NHC said.
The National Weather Service in New Orleans said a Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for portions of southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast, with three to five inches of rain possible through Saturday with locally higher amounts "not out of the question."
The second wave is currently described by the NHC as a "non-tropical area of low pressure" and is located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina.
The system is producing "limited shower and thunderstorm activity" and could acquire some "tropical or subtropical characteristics" over the next few days as it moves north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern coast of the United States, the NHC said.
"Once the low moves over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not expected," the NHC said in its advisory, giving it a 30 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The third wave is currently producing showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow development is possible during the next several days as it moves northwestward or northward, the NHC said. This wave has a 20 percent chance of development in the next seven days.
The fourth wave is currently moving quickly westward at about 20 mph over the western Caribbean Sea and continues to produce a "broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms," the NHC said.
Some development is possible in a few days after the system crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives this wave a 20 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The fifth and final wave is currently several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong winds are expected to limit development of this system during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward, the NHC said.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development by early next week while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The NHC gives this system a 10 percent chance of formation through the next seven days.
Where are the hurricanes?
Despite the widespread warm water across the basin, an abundance of dry air, dust from the Saharan Desert and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development, according to AccuWeather. “We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, adding that it is interfering with the showers and thunderstorms that commonly go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes.
So far this year, there have been more storms in the Pacific than the Atlantic, and that's a bit of a surprise, forecasters say.
Some forecast teams, including AccuWeather, are revising their predictions of an extraordinarily active hurricane season. AccuWeather, which had predicted that as many as 25 storms would form, has revised that number down to 16-20, which is still above the average of 14.
For the immediate future, Klotzbach's team sees below-average activity over the next couple of weeks, as large-scale weather factors continue to conspire to reduce storm activity.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: National Hurricane Center tracking 5 disturbances
