Senate border bill tees up key campaign opportunity for Democrats

WASHINGTON – The Senate shot down a border security bill Thursday that was clearly doomed to fail – but provided a key opportunity for vulnerable Democrats to stake out a position that may protect them this fall.

It marks the start of a phase of Congress when passing substantive policy is all but impossible until compromising on tough politically-fraught legislation becomes slightly easier after the November election.

Instead, leaders focus on passing safe bills – such as naming new post offices and confirming non-controversial federal judges – and helping out their vulnerable members who face tough re-elections by giving them the chance to vote on bills that may resonate with voters.

“The angle of analysis ought to be, ‘would it be a good 30-second ad?’” said Mordecai Lee, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

The border bill killed Thursday with a 43-50 vote was negotiated by a bipartisan group of senators over the winter as a carrot to bring Republicans on to the foreign aid supplemental bill that would eventually send $95 billion to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

The sweeping border package would shorten the timeframe for consideration of asylum claims, make it harder for migrants to qualify and create a new temporary policy to shut down processing of applications from people who crossed illegally if certain crossings reach a threshold. President Joe Biden has endorsed the bill and encouraged GOP leaders to adopt it.

It was initially supported by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and a sizable portion of the GOP conference.

But former President Donald Trump began railing against the legislation as he became the presumptive Republican 2024 nominee and the border proved to be a salient election year issue. Senate Republicans quickly closed ranks and the bill failed in February.

Both sides point the finger at politics

Democrats hammered their Republican peers’ reversal as a show of hypocrisy. Biden pledged to remind voters of it “every day” until the election.

“The same bipartisan bill that Donald Trump killed saying ‘please, blame it on me.’ So blame it on him, make sure you do,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. said Tuesday.

“Those who say we need to act on the border will get a chance to show this week that they’re serious about fixing the problem.”

He was referring to his Republican colleagues, who would go on to vote against the bill in large numbers. They cite concerns that the bill doesn’t go far enough to restrict the border, and say Biden can take action on his own that would make a difference.

But Schumer’s statement also applies to vulnerable Democrats – Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Jon Tester of Montana, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and Jacky Rosen of Nevada – who need to show that they have taken action on an issue that is consistently ranked among the most important to voters.

“Certainly we have a broken immigration system, and this measure was negotiated between Republicans and Democrats,” said Baldwin. “I support it and think it’s a really important step to bring order to something that has been lacking that.”

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said campaigns are about explaining this kind of dichotomy: "A campaign is about putting out what sort of action individuals are taking. In this case, our incumbents are stepping up to have strong border security in this country."

The bill got fewer votes than it did in February, with Democratic Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J. and Laphonza Butler, D-Calif., flipping to a no along with GOP Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Mitt Romney, R-Utah, James Lankford, R-Okla., and independent Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema. Nobody switched their vote to yes.

Some Democrats have raised concerns that it doesn’t include major liberal priorities, such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented adults brought to the United States by their parents as children.

“If we are going to do work in the immigration area, we’d like more security and a pathway to citizenship for people who are working hard for the United States of America,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

Republicans, in turn, said Democrats were pulling a political move by forcing another vote on the same legislation.

McConnell called the effort a “gimmick” and GOP Whip Sen. John Thune, R-S.D. said: “The reason all of a sudden they’re interested in doing something – or at least appearing to be doing something – is because they know they’ve got a big political vulnerability on this.”

Even Lankford, the chief GOP negotiator who helped craft the bill, said ahead of the vote that he planned to vote against it because there have been no efforts to change the legislation to garner more votes since February.

“It’s not real,” he said. “There’s no negotiations trying to make this thing right at all.”

Messaging bills across the Capitol

Bills that won’t become law but provide some electoral use for vulnerable members aren’t contained to immigration or to the Senate.

The Senate plans to consider a bill next week that would guarantee a right to contraception – a major Democratic priority that is sure to be stopped by Republicans in the closely-divided chamber, where 60 votes are needed to pass legislation. Reproductive rights have proven a salient political issue that favors Democrats since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

And last week the Republican-controlled House passed a bill that would force the Biden Administration to continue sending bombs to Israel, forcing the chamber’s Democrats to take another vote on the controversial foreign policy topic.

The House also passed legislation Thursday that would eliminate a Washington, D.C. law that allows non-citizens to vote in local elections – a bill that stands no chance of passage in the Senate or getting signed by Biden.

House GOP Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. told reporters that people who work at foreign embassies shouldn’t be allowed to vote in America’s elections. It is already illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections.

“That's something I think most Americans agree with,” he said. “We're going to find out who here in Congress agrees with that when we have a vote on that bill tomorrow.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A Senate border bill sure to fail will provide opportunity for Democrats