Russia just bought lethal drones from Iran to use in Ukraine. Why this matters
WASHINGTON – Russian officials immediately signaled buyer's remorse after they received their first shipment of lethal drones from Iran to bolster their depleted arsenal, U.S. officials said Tuesday.
The weapons sale underscores the toll the six-month war has taken on Russia's military, the international isolation that has forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to depend on an unsavory ally, and the low quality of the drones supplied by Iran, U.S. officials say. U.S. officials and experts regard the drone sale as escalatory but unlikely to turn the tide in what has become a grinding war of attrition. Ukraine, armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons, is in the early stages of pushing back Russian gains in the southern part of the country.
More: War crimes in Ukraine may be unprecedented. So is the country's push for swift justice.
The latest
Russian troops have been receiving training in Iran to fly the drones for weeks.
But Russian officials are not satisfied with purchase, citing concerns about their "operability," according to a senior U.S. administration official who spoke about intelligence assessments on condition of anonymity. While potentially lethal, the Iranian drones have reliability problems and Ukraine has air defenses to counter them.
The purchase of drones from Iran shows that the Russian defense industry can't keep pace with battlefield losses and that sanctions have prevented Russia from importing the high-tech parts it needs to build them, a second U.S. official said. At least 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since its invasion of Ukraine Feb. 24. Ukraine's fierce, effective defense – armed largely by western nations – has destroyed thousands of Russian tanks, troop transports, warplanes and ships.
Why this is a big deal for U.S. support of Ukraine
Increased stockpile: Ukrainian troops have used Turkish-made drones to great effect on the battlefield, gathering targeting information on Russian armored vehicles and troops to be destroyed by Ukrainian artillery and rockets. The Pentagon has supplied Ukraine with hundreds of small, kamikaze drones that can fly a relatively short distance, dive bomb and blow up armored vehicles or troops. Recently, the U.S. has begun shipping longer-range reconnaissance drones called Scan Eagles.
Is the new nuke deal hanging in the balance? A senior administration official insisted that Iran's sale of drones to Russia will not affect ongoing talks to curb Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities. The pact was negotiated in 2015, but Tehran stopped adhering to its limits after the Trump administration withdrew from it. The Biden administration does not conflate Iran's "malign activities," including the sale of drones to Russia, with the nuclear talks, the official said.
Risks vs. rewards: Ukrainian officials have been seeking more sophisticated drones from the Pentagon, including the Gray Eagle, which has a greater range than Scan Eagles and can be armed with Hellfire missiles. Advocates for Ukraine say concerns about provoking Russia by furnishing with better drones have been diminished by the sale of Iranian drones. Others, including members of Congress, say the risk of losing a technologically-advanced drone to Russia, which could copy its sensitive parts, outweighs the battlefield advantages to Ukraine.
More: US to ship $775 million aid package of arms, drones to Ukraine, official says: Recap
What's about to happen
Russia could soon deploy the drones to fly behind Ukrainian lines and use them to target troops and vital weapons systems like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. The Pentagon has supplied Ukraine with 16 of the launchers, which have been used to destroy Russian command posts, artillery depots and logistics hubs.
The Pentagon, and other western allies, have been supplying Ukraine with air defense systems that can target drones and other warplanes. The Ukrainian defense has been so stout that Russia has not gained air superiority. In addition, the Pentagon recently announced that it will send Ukraine a weapon that kills drones with small missiles.
What they are saying
“Quantity has a quality of its own. If it’s quantities in the hundreds, this could have a significant impact,” said Alexander Vindman, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who was the Director for European Affairs on the National Security Council during the Trump administration. Vindman, who was born in Ukraine, said Kyiv has become “pretty decent at air defense,” and has been successful at knocking down the Russian Orlan-10 recon drones that Moscow has been using since the beginning of the war.
"It’s basically giving more tools to a war criminal, Mr. Putin, to perpetuate war crimes," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and a member of the Armed Services Committee. "Iran is aiding and abetting a war criminal in perpetuating genocide."
"These are not cheap drones, costing upwards of $100 million (each)," Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., and a member of the Armed Services Committee, said of the Pentagon's Gray Eagle, which Ukraine would like to have. "We want to make sure they can use them effectively and without allowing them to fall into the hands of Russian adversaries on the battlefield."
More: Russian attack kills 22 on Ukraine's Independence Day; US pledges nearly $3B in new military aid
Why it matters
Drones have changed warfare in the 21st century, allowing the surveillance and destruction of troops and equipment without putting troops in harm's way. Ukrainian forces have exacted a steep toll on Russian forces by locating them behind enemy lines with drones for destruction by artillery. The concern with Iranian drones is that Russia will use them in a similar fashion to spy on and destroy Ukrainian troops and infrastructure.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iranian security and political issues analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a national security thinktank in Washington D.C. said Iran has been pouring resources and research and development money into its drone program. They are also expanding the geographic areas of operation including in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
“Politically, the changing direction of arms trade between Iran and Russia cannot be ignored,” said Taleblu. “It is a testament to Tehran's decades long-investment in the unmanned aerial threat space that Russia now seeks these weapons.”
Iran's widening radius of drone proliferation also means its asymmetric military capabilities could potentially cause problems for Western allies in Europe.
The drone sale also raises the issue of whether President Joe Biden would consider terrorism sanctions on Russia, given the high likelihood Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, was involved in the training, production, sale, supply, or transfer of the drone systems, saidTaleb lu.
“And what punitive measures will Biden, who continues to seek a weaker and shorter nuclear deal with Iran, consider against the mullahs?”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Russia escalates Ukraine war buying lethal drones from Iran