Rochester has seen a wet start to 2024. How precipitation compares to normal

Walking my dog the past few days has been a rainy affair and the ground has been saturated to match the conditions.

While finding spots of standing water has added an element of novelty to those exploratory jaunts in my new location, it’s also a reminder that the Rochester area has received above normal precipitation this month. Rochester typically sees about 2.25 inches of precipitation by Jan. 27; this year we’re already at 3.78 inches.

Paired with above normal temperatures — the average temperature is more than 3 degrees warmer than normal — it’s a recipe for damp conditions. And while January has helped get the region’s snowfall count back on track, with 24.7 inches of snow compared to the normal 23.8 inches, this winter as a whole remains well behind normal (33.5 inches to 54.3 inches).

The early snowfall totals don’t bode well for Rochester’s shot at the ever-elusive Golden Snowball, but also show a marked improvement over this time last year, when only 17 inches of snow had fallen.

What is lake effect snow?

While temperatures have been warmer than normal, there has still been lake effect snow this season, especially in the Buffalo area and the Tug Hill Plateau. Those regions are ripe for those events, located in the path of the predominant southwesterly winds and parked at the termination of the longest spans of the lake.

Lake effect snow forms into narrow, intense bands, the result of instability generated by cold arctic air blowing across the warmer, open surface of a large lake, like Lake Ontario or Lake Erie. Lake effect typically happens in the late fall and early winter before the lakes freeze over, but can continue through the winter and into the spring in a warm winter.

The first significant lake effect snow event arrived across both lakes Nov. 27 to 29, with 23 inches falling in Chautauqua and 46.2 inches in Highmarket, Lewis County.

The National Weather Service report of the event noted the late arrival of the event, which snarled evening commute traffic in the Buffalo Southtowns and dropped heavy snow in higher elevations east of Lake Ontario. Rochester only saw a few inches from the storm system.

What is the lake effect snow paradox?

As long as the lakes remain somewhat uncovered and relatively warm and cold air comes down from Canada, there is the possibility for lake effect snow. Despite warmer winters — December 2023 was the second-warmest on record for Rochester and Buffalo — lake effect snow remains a threat to Western New York deeper into winter. Those temperatures have led to limited ice cover on the Great Lakes, including the smallest recorded ice cover for New Years Day.

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I spoke with SUNY Oswego assistant professor of meteorology Yonggang Wang about the lake effect paradox, and he said that in the near future, there’s likely going to be more lake effect snow due to a longer time of open lake water.

“So, it’s very possible that we may have more lake effect snow overall per year,” Wang said.

Over a longer time frame, like 30 to 40 years, however, the lake will remain open longer in the winter, but the air coming down from more northern climes will be warmer and won’t create the instability needed to generate snow bands.

So, snow lovers rejoice for the next couple decades, but further down the road, lake effect snow could begin to peter out if climate change follows current projections.

— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lake issues for the Democrat and Chronicle. The longest hike he's taken with his dog is 11 miles. Have any insight into changing weather or climate? Share with him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rochester NY weather: Wet conditions, above normal snow in 2024