What recent Pa. voter registration data tells us about momentum heading into Election Day

In less than two months, more than 8.86 million registered voters in Pennsylvania will have a chance to vote in the 2024 presidential election.

It's been a contentious race that's included historic moments for both major parties. The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump in Butler County on July 13 — and President Joe Biden dropping out of the race a week later — may have prompted a surge in new voter registrations in an election year where the prospective 2020 rematch initially made many voters across the country less than enthused to vote.

Roughly 281,861 Pennsylvanians newly registered to vote this year had signed up as of Sept. 2, according to records from the Pennsylvania Department of State, which oversees elections in the commonwealth. About 107,511 (38%) of those newer voters have registered since July 15.

While the Republican Party has seen the most growth this year — about 103,283 new voters since January — new Democratic voters started to take the lead for weekly new voters since late July, which is about the same week that Biden left the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee.

Out of the 96,822 new Democrats since January, about 39,893 voters (37%) registered to vote in the last six weeks. About 36.5%, or 39,333 voters, of the total Republicans who registered this year did so since late July.

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said Thursday that the increasing pace of new Democrats could be coming “just in time” for Harris. But he cautioned against interpreting that lead as a sign Republicans are slowing down.

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“When you look over the course of the lead-up to that over the year, in some way a lot of the gains (for Republicans) had already been realized,” Borick said.

“For Democrats, on the other hand, they were in the dumps and just the attractiveness of voting Democrat wasn’t there (before Biden dropped out)."

Republicans currently have added more voters this year than any other party in Pennsylvania, flipping a trend that saw Democrats leading consistently in 2022.

From blue to red

The 2022 midterms failed to bring about what some pundits and political analysts predicted as a national red wave, including two closely watched races in Pennsylvania.

Gov. Josh Shapiro beat Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Adams, by 12 points in the gubernatorial race that year and U.S. Sen. John Fetterman replaced retiring Republican Pat Toomey after taking about 51% of the vote against Dr. Mehmet Oz’s 46% in that race.

Democrats held a consistent lead over Republicans for most of 2022, and the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade led to a massive spike in new Democrats that June. New Republican registrations even lagged behind registrations for all independent and other parties combined after the ruling.

By late September 2022, there were 61,971 newly registered Democrats to just 41,889 new Republicans.

The 2023 Municipal Election also brought a blue wave across the commonwealth as Democrats swept statewide and local offices, with major upsets for Republican-led school boards where culture war issues dominated headlines.

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Those losses over the past two years seem to have helped galvanize Republican efforts to build up their voter rolls. The GOP has now flipped the script to lead in new voters, according to the department of state data.

In Beaver, Berks and Bucks counties, Republicans have become the registered majority.

Democrats led Beaver County by 2,666 voters in 2022, but the county now has Republican voters ahead by 2,192 voters. Berks County currently has 6,140 more Republicans than Democrats, who used to lead the county by 2,427 voters. And Bucks County recently turned red for the first time in at least a decade, as Democrats lost a 7,668-voter lead and the GOP picked up a 1,096-voter advantage.

Borick said the trends for new Republicans are “a good sign” and “a significant positive trend for the party as it heads to November.”

“That’s good news for Republicans, but just how good of news remains to be seen,” he added.

Voters don't always fall in line with their own party, and even a lead in registrations won't matter if certain groups don't show up to vote in a close race. Recent polling had Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania days prior to the Sept. 11 debate at the Constitution Center in Philadelphia.

Voters invigorated

Regardless of party affiliation, the historic events of the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden exiting the race appear to have reinvigorated voters in Pennsylvania.

Voter rolls averaged about 6,226 new voters a week through early July, but that average has more than doubled since then to about 15,358 new voters per week.

Outside of the two major parties, independent and unaffiliated voters in Pennsylvania have grown by about 81,756 people since January. There are approximately 90,059 more voters in these ranks than there were in 2022.

Borick said that’s an interesting trend for a segment of voters that Harris and Trump will be fighting to win over in coming weeks.

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The political science professor added that young adults especially have been bucking major parties in recent years, and that makes those voters a “wild card” in terms of predicting where they might land politically.

About 61% of people who registered to vote this year are younger than 30. Out of those 173,106 voters, about 36% are Republican, 35% are Democrats and about 29% went either with another party or no party at all.

Voters younger than 30 also make up about 1.59 million out of Pennsylvania’s 8.86 million voters, according to the registration data. About 45% are Democrats, 32% are Republicans and 23% are independent or unaffiliated voters.

“Where do they go? Do they vote? Do they break more for one party over another? How does this play out in terms of actual behavior?” Borick said.

The final day to register to vote in Pennsylvania is Oct. 21. The last day to register for a mail-in or civilian absentee ballot is Oct. 29.

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Nov. 5.

More information about how to register, where to vote and the deadlines for voting by mail can be found at your county’s board of elections website or online with the state department at vote.pa.gov.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: PA voter registration numbers for 2024