Rally shooting likely won't keep Trump out of Pa. Swing state critical to election win
An assassination attempt probably won’t stop former President Donald Trump from future campaign stops in Pennsylvania.
Trump was speaking to supporters at a rally in Butler, near Pittsburgh, Saturday evening when the presumptive Republican nominee fell to the stage following several gunshots. He was pictured with blood on his face as Secret Service surrounded him and escorted him to an SUV, but was quickly confirmed to be "fine" by his campaign.
Thomas Matthew Crooks, a a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, Pa., was identified as the shooter, and the FBI continues to investigate.
Is Pennsylvania a swing state?
Pennsylvania is one of six swing states that could decide the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election; the others are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
Republican political strategist Sam Chen, a principal director of the Allentown-based communications firm The Liddle Group, said he doubts the shooting will keep Trump from campaigning in Pennsylvania, where the former president has already visited at least five times in recent months for fundraisers and rallies.
“There's no chance the shooting at President Trump's event in Pennsylvania will stop him from coming back and campaigning in the state,” Chen said Saturday night. “That's not the former president's personality and, more broadly, Americans are known for pressing on — even more relentlessly — in the face of such attacks.”
Both Trump and President Joe Biden have been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania this year.
Where is Butler?: Where is Butler Pa? Trump taken off stage after reports of shots at rally
Biden did a three-day blitz through the state in April, including an event in his hometown of Scranton, and was back in Harrisburg and Philadelphia, where he's been at least six times, as recently as July 7
The rally in Butler was one of at least five events Trump has made to Pennsylvania this year alone. His first rally was in Schnecksville, near Allentown, in April. That same day he attended a private fundraiser in Buck County and was greeted by hundreds at an organized street rally as his motorcade passed. Trump also held a rally in Philadelphia just a few days before he and Biden squared off in their first televised debate last month.
Red states and blue states
During a presidential election, many states are considered Red or Blue states because the results historically favor Republicans or Democrats, respectively.
For example, California is considered a Blue state because voters there have chosen the Democrat over the Republican candidate in every Presidential Election since 1992, according to www.270towin.com.
On the other hand, Texas has consistently voted Republican for president since 1980.
PA leaders condemn Trump shooting: Pennsylvania political leaders condemn Trump shooting at Butler County rally
States that have historically voted for both parties in major elections or where the margin of Republican and Democratic voters is very thin can be unpredictable and typically referred to as “swing states,” or sometimes also referred to as battleground states.
Pennsylvania has gone to the Republican candidate in every major election of the 1980s and in 2016, while the Democrats have won the state in eight of the past 12 presidential elections.
Democrats also lead Republicans by about 371,280 voters, or just 4% of the state’s 8.7 million voters, according to July registration data from the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Why is Pennsylvania so important in 2024 presidential election?
In order to win the election, one candidate will need to secure 270 electoral college votes — votes assigned to each state based on its population determined by the census. The District of Columbia is given three votes and considered a state for the purposes of the electoral college.
Pennsylvania, the fifth most populous state in the country as of the 2020 census, holds 19 electoral college votes.
None of the four states ahead of Pennsylvania — California (54 votes), Texas (40 votes), Florida (30 votes) and New York (28 votes) — are considered swing states this year, making Pennsylvania the largest unknown for both Trump and Biden.
Road to 270 goes through PA: Electoral math: Biden needs to take these swing states to win in 2024
Chen also said Pennsylvania’s role as a bellwether in the election is also equally important. Bellwethers in elections are places that can often be used to predict the outcome of an election.
Since 1976, Pennsylvania has voted for the winner in each presidential election except in 2000 and 2004.
Pennsylvania voters are politically very diverse, Chen said, a “microcosm” of the nation with a mix of liberal and conservative voters who often split their ticket between Republicans and Democrats.
“It's not like if you win these 19 votes, you're guaranteed the presidency,” Chen said. “It's more if you've done the work to be able to win in Pennsylvania, you hit some kind of sweet spot where you're able to speak across different demographics.”
Chris Ullery is the Philadelphia Hub Data Reporter for the USA Today Network. Reach him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter at @ulleryatinell.
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This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Why Trump won't avoid Pa after rally shooting. Swing state key to win