The quiet power of third-party candidates: Here's how they could play a pivotal role on Election Day
Two weeks remain in the presidential race, and the campaigns are following the classic “persuasion” and “get-out-the-vote” textbook maneuvers. But is there another “under-the-radar” maneuver the campaigns can employ?
Many of you who read my columns know that I constantly write about the quiet power of third-party candidates in close elections. This is why we measure all listed candidates on a state ballot in a close election in our Suffolk University/USA TODAY polls.
According to our latest Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll, the race is essentially tied among likely voters in our 5-way ballot test. Democrat Kamala Harris (45%) leads Republican Donald Trump (44%), Independent Cornel West (1%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (1%), and Libertarian Chase Oliver (1%), with 5% still undecided and 3% refusing to respond. In our 2-way ballot test, Harris still leads by one point (50%-49%) with 1% undecided.
The quiet power of third-party Candidates
In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein (yes, the same Jill Stein) each received more votes in the 3 “blue wall” states than the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost:
Michigan: 172,136 Johnson votes, 51,463 Stein votes, 10,704 margin.
Pennsylvania: 146,715 Johnson votes, 49,941 Stein votes, 44,292 margin.
Wisconsin: 106,674 Johnson votes, 31,072 Stein votes, 22,748 margin.
I have a hard time picturing the supporters of a progressive environmentalist’s supporters choosing Trump over Clinton if Stein were taken off the ballot – but we’ll never know.
Then in 2020, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, the only significant third-party candidate, received more votes than the margin by which Trump lost in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin:
Arizona: 51,465 Jorgensen votes, 10,457 margin.
Georgia: 62,229 Jorgensen votes, 11,779 margin.
Wisconsin: 38,491 Jorgensen votes, 20,682 margin.
Remove the less-government-is-better, pro-business Libertarian from those ballots, and Trump is most likely re-elected. I’m generalizing, but you get the point.
Ballot engineering
Which takes us to 2024, and the ballot options at hand. It’s too late to try to remove third-party candidates from the ballot, but there is a way for Harris and Trump to make the composition of each state’s ballot work for them: forget trying to convince voters to choose you, and instead try to convince your opponent’s softest voters to pick someone else.
This is why RFK Jr., despite dropping out and endorsing Trump, tried to remove himself from the Michigan and Wisconsin ballots (and why Democrats fought to keep him on) – because he knew the harm his ballot presence could cause to Trump.
Democratic Operation Codename: “Chase Chase”
Democratic operatives and Super PACs could convince soft Trump voters – who won’t vote for Harris and are planning to hold their nose and vote Trump – to instead vote for Chase Oliver, a Libertarian with conservative principles without the Trump name.
The ad: “Send the Republican Party a message and vote your values.” In Pennsylvania, you can find these voters in counties where Nikki Haley overperformed in the Republican Primary: Chester, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Erie, Lancaster, and Montgomery.
Republican Operation Codename: “Stein is Fine”
Republican operatives and Super PACs could convince soft Harris voters ? who will never vote Trump but are sour on Harris (because of the Israel-Hamas War, fracking or personal finances) – to vote for Jill Stein instead, who has solid environmental bona fides (and who was arrested as a Pro-Palestinian demonstrator in April).
The ad: “Send the Democratic Party a message and vote your values.” In PA, you can find these voters in Beaver, Cambria, Fayette, Lawrence, and Schuylkill counties, where the Dean Phillips/write-in votes in the Democratic Primary were a rebuke to Biden-Harris.
Other options
The above playbook of “pumping” Stein and Oliver can be executed across the three blue wall states, which are all neck-and-neck. Michigan and Wisconsin have even more third-party options than Pennsylvania – including Cornel West, who Republican PACs could sell to older Democratic Black voters as an alternative and familiar voting option from the world of academia and political activism.
And on the flip side, RFK hurts Trump and helps Harris even by his mere presence as a ballot option in these states. So does Constitution Party nominee Randall Terry who could take away some staunch pro-life voters at the expense of Trump.
Our democracy is vulnerable to the active promotion of third-party candidates by the two major political parties. It will become part of the political process in order to win.
David Paleologos is director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jill Stein, RFK Jr.: Third-party candidates could play a pivotal role