Democrat Angela Alsobrooks to face ex-governor Larry Hogan in Maryland Senate race

The Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will face off against the former Republican governor Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race this November, setting up an unexpectedly competitive election in the reliably Democratic state. Republicans have a rare opportunity to flip a Senate seat in Maryland, and the outcome of that race could determine control of the upper chamber in November.

Alsobrooks and Hogan won their parties’ Senate primaries on Tuesday, as Maryland voters cast ballots in the presidential race as well as congressional elections. Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won the state’s primaries after already securing enough delegates to capture their parties’ nominations.

Leaders of both parties were closely watching the results of the Senate contests, as the retirement of Senator Ben Cardin has created an opening for Republicans to potentially capture the seat, thanks to Hogan’s late entry into the race. A Hogan victory would mark the first time that a Republican has won a Maryland Senate election since 1980, and it could erase Democrats’ narrow majority in the chamber.

As expected, Hogan easily won the Republican primary, with the Associated Press calling the race less than an hour after polls closed. Alsobrooks faced a more competitive primary against Congressman David Trone, the owner of the beverage chain Total Wine & More. Trone used his personal fortune to boost his Senate campaign; according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission, he loaned at least $61.8m to his campaign.

But that investment was not enough to secure a victory, as the AP called the race for Alsobrooks about two hours after polls closed.

The Maryland Senate race has historic implications, as Alsobrooks would become the first Black person elected to represent Maryland in the Senate and just the third Black woman to ever serve in the chamber. But Alsobrooks’s victory is far from guaranteed, as Hogan presents a formidable threat to Democrats’ hopes of holding the seat. When Hogan left office last year, a poll conducted for Gonzales Research & Media Services showed that 77% of Marylanders, including an astounding 81% of Democrats, approved of the governor’s job performance.

Hogan’s candidacy will force Democrats to allocate resources to a Senate race that they had previously assumed would be an easy win in the general election. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 33 points in Maryland, but Hogan also won his 2018 re-election race by 12 points. Polls of potential general election match-ups have produced mixed results, but both parties will almost certainly have to spend heavily to compete in the state. The Cook Political Report currently rates the Maryland Senate race as “likely Democrat”.

“Electing Angela Alsobrooks will stop Republicans from taking control of the Senate, and ensure that Republican Larry Hogan’s party cannot pursue their dangerous agenda like passing a national ban on abortion,” said the senator Gary Peters, chair of the Democratic senatorial campaign committee. “Marylanders know the Senate majority is on the line, and that’s why they are unified behind Angela and ready to defeat Republican Larry Hogan in November.”

Elsewhere in the state, the former US Capitol police office Harry Dunn, who wrote a bestselling book about his experience protecting lawmakers during the January 6 insurrection, lost his primary bid to the Democratic state senator Sarah Elfreth. Although Dunn had the largest national profile, Elfreth benefited from the support of the pro-Israel Super Pac United Democracy Project.

Dunn, a first-time candidate, proved himself to be a prodigious fundraiser, bringing in $4.6m across the election cycle. In comparison, Elfeth’s campaign raised just $1.5m, but she received outside help from UDP, which is affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). UDP spent at least $4.2m in support of Elfreth’s campaign, flooding the district with ads promoting her candidacy.

The race to succeed Trone in representing Maryland’s sixth congressional district also attracted a crowded field of candidates. In the Democratic primary, the former Biden administration official April McClain Delaney defeated the state delegate Joe Vogel, while the former state delegate Neil Parrott prevailed over his fellow former delegate Dan Cox to win the Republican nomination. Of Maryland’s eight congressional districts, the sixth is viewed as the most competitive for the general election, and Cook rates the seat as “likely Democrat”.

Although Biden and Trump have both already secured their parties’ nominations, Maryland’s presidential primaries still offered clues about the general election. Biden’s name appeared on his party’s ballot alongside those of the Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips and the self-help author Marianne Williamson, but Maryland Democrats also had the option to choose “uncommitted to any presidential candidate”.

Mirroring similar efforts in states like Michigan, pro-ceasefire advocates urged Maryland voters to cast ballots for uncommitted to protest against Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. As of 10.30pm ET, uncommitted had won 10% of the Democratic vote compared to Biden’s 87%.

In the Republican presidential primary, only the names of Trump and the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley appeared on the ballot. Although Haley dropped out of the race in March, she has continued to win votes in the weeks since, which has been viewed as a potential warning sign for Trump heading into the general election. As of 10.30pm ET, Haley had captured 20% of the Republican vote compared to Trump’s 80%.