Presidential election polls 2024: Two new surveys show Trump, Harris in neck-and-neck race

WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been neck-and-neck in polls for weeks, a trend that's not changing according to a pair of surveys released on Sunday.

A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Harris leading Trump nationally by 50%-49% among likely voters, slightly down from a 51%-48% advantage in mid-October, but well within the survey's margin of error.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump by 51% to 47% among likely voters, in part to Harris' advantage among women voters. The results are slightly outside the poll's margin of error, +/-2.5 percentage points.

Pollsters agreed that that the election will likely be decided by which campaign does the better job of turning out voters in the stretch leading up to Election Day. That is particularly true in the seven battleground states widely expected to decide the race for the White House.

Here's what to know about presidential polling results on Sunday, October 27.

ABC: Harris is up – but the race is still tight

While reporting that Harris has a 51%-47% advantage among likely voters nationally, ABC noted that the race is too close to call in the deciding states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

The race is also tighter among all registered voters, not just those likely to cast their ballots this year. Harris leads Trump 49%-47%, within the poll's margin of error.

The poll was conducted online from Oct. 18-22 in English and Spanish among 2,808 adults. It has a margin of sampling error +/- 2.5 percentage points for likely voters, +/- 2 percentage points for registered voters and +/-5.5 percentage points in swing states.

Economy, border most important for Republicans; Democrats say health care, democracy

The ABC News/Ipsos poll, like others, underscored how both campaigns are trying to put together coalitions based on specific issues.

Harris has advantages with voters who support health care access and want to protect democracy; Trump scores well with voters who are concerned with the economy and immigration policy.

Among Democratic survey respondents registered to vote, 90% said health care was highly important to them, compared to 64% of Republicans. Additionally, 91% of Democrats said the same about "protecting American democracy," compared to 80% of Republicans.

On the other side of the aisle, 96% of registered Republican voters surveyed said the economy was highly important to them, compared to 86% of Democrats. And and 90% of Republican survey respondents said the "the immigration system at the U.S.-Mexico border" was highly important, along with 50% of Democrats.

CBS: Trump, Harris in a deadlock

CBS found that Harris leads Trump by 1 percentage point nationally, and the two are tied 50%-50% in battlegrounds.

The outlet cited demographic factors, particularly what could wind up as a record-setting gender gap. By ten percentage points, women voters are more likely than men "to say that only Kamala Harris has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, and Trump does not."

Overall, 55% of Democratic survey respondents who are likely to vote this fall said they're choosing Harris at the ballot box, compared to 45% of Democratic men surveyed. When it comes to Trump, 43% of Republican women said they're backing the former president, compared to 54% of GOP men.

The CBS/YouGov survey was conducted among 1,261 voters between Oct. 23-25. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points, and the swing states surveyed include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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Things to keep in mind about polling

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.

Contributing: Kinsey Crowley

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Trump, Harris in neck-and-neck race