Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump with a week to go
Editor’s Note: Follow along here for the latest presidential polls for Wednesday, Oct. 30.
The presidential election is just a week away and Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are neck and neck in their efforts to win over voters in key battleground states.
The latest polls show tight races between the two presidential candidates in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and North Carolina. On a national scale, a Morning Consult poll showed Harris leading Trump 50% to 47%, while a new survey from Reuters/Ipsos showed Harris' lead shrink.
Given the razor-thin margins of recent polls, it's no surprise that Trump and Harris have spent the final days of their campaigns hosting rallies and courting voters in swing states.
Trump, who was addressed media Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, was also set for an evening rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, located about 60 miles northwest of Philadelphia. Harris was set to appear for a rally in Washington, D.C..
Here is what to know about presidential polling on Tuesday, Oct. 29:
Election 2024 live updates: Trump holds PA rally, Harris delivers DC speech; latest polls
Harris leads Trump in Morning Consult's latest poll
A Morning Consult poll of 8,807 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 50% to 47%, outside of the poll's margin of error.
The poll, conducted Friday to Sunday (Oct. 25-27), had a 1 percentage point margin of error.
While Harris' lead was down from a 4-percentage-point advantage in a similar poll last week, 45% of likely voters say they've recently heard something positive about the Democrat, "maintaining the positive buzz advantage she's held throughout the campaign," the poll said. Meanwhile, almost half of those surveyed, 49%, said they've recently heard something negative about Trump.
At the same time, Republicans remain more favored than Democrats to handle the economy, national security, crime and immigration. Democrats, though, are more trusted on health care, climate change and abortion, the poll noted.
Harris' lead over Trump shrinks to one point in new national Reuters/Ipsos poll
A new poll by Reuters/Ipsos out Tuesday shows Harris and Trump nearly tied.
The poll of 1,150 adults nationwide including 975 registered voters, conducted over three days ending Sunday, showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 43%. Among respondents who appeared likeliest to vote, Harris led Trump, 47% to 46%, Reuters reported.
Harris' one-point lead falls within the poll's margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
Harris has led in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since July, when she entered the race in place of President Joe Biden, but the outlet reported the margin of her lead has shrunk steadily since late September.
Harris and Trump tied in North Carolina poll
Harris and Trump are deadlocked among likely voters in North Carolina, shows a SurveyUSA/WRAL poll released Tuesday.
The poll of 853 likely voters, conducted online between Oct. 23-26 and released exactly one week before Election Day, has both candidates at 47%, with 2% of respondents saying they will vote for a third-party candidate and 4% undecided. The result is well within the poll's margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
? James Powel
Trump leads Harris 48% to 47% Reuters/Ipso in Wisconsin in USA TODAY/Suffolk poll
Trump and Harris are almost tied in Wisconsin, 48% to 47%, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters.
The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 23.
In Door County, Wisconsin, which has been a bellwether for the state, Harris has a slight edge. Harris leads Trump in that area, 50% to 47%, the poll of 300 likely Door County voters found. The results are still within the margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.
While there is typically a gender gap between supporters of Trump and Harris, David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the effects of the gap are more pronounced in the state.
In Wisconsin, Harris has a 14-point edge over Trump among women, 55% to 41%. But Trump is up 18 percentage points among men over Harris, 56% to 38%.
Harris leads Trump 48%-45% in Minnesota poll
Precious few undecided voters are left in Minnesota to boost either Trump or Harris as the finish line approaches, a new MinnPost-Embold Research poll found.
The survey of 1,734 likely voters in the state showed Harris with a slight edge over Trump, 48%-45%, nearly mirroring the result of a similar poll last month. The results were within the poll’s 2.4 percentage point margin of error.
Just 2% of the poll’s respondents said they were undecided, down from 3% in September. The poll was conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 22.
Among the candidates and their vice presidential running mates, only Tim Walz had a positive favorability rating (2%) in a state where he is also the governor. Steven Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College, said Walz’s high favorability ratings “probably results in a small lift” for Harris.
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Harris leads Trump by three percentage points in new Michigan poll
Harris holds a narrow three-point lead over Trump in a new poll commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News.
The poll of 600 people surveyed from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24 showed Harris leading 47% to 44% with a margin of error of 4%.
Echoing other polls, the new survey found that jobs and the economy continue to motivate voters, with 41.4% saying it's the top issue in the election. Nearly 20% said immigration is the top issue.
Harris gains slight edge in latest TIPP poll
After a three-day stalemate, Harris appears to have gained a slight one-point edge on Trump in TIPP's Tracking Poll from Tuesday morning.
Harris now leads 48% to 47% in the latest online survey of 1,291 likely voters, conducted from Saturday to Monday with a 2.7-point margin of error.
However, the poll shows that 53% of Americans the economy is worse compared to pre-pandemic. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 51% saying they’re better off, while 68% of Republicans report feeling worse off.
Independents largely mirror the national mood, with 55% saying the economy is worse.
"This dissatisfaction is a headwind for Harris, which Trump could exploit," according to the poll.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
Contributing: Rebecca Morin, USA TODAY
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump