Opinion: Why is Trump doing so well in the polls? It's the economy, stupid.

James Carville, strategist for then-candidate Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Really, there’s no better way to sum up the state of this year’s presidential election, which is just two weeks away.

Voters for months (even years) have expressed their concern over the economy and inflation, and that remains the top issue as they prepare to vote – or already have voted in several states.

Vice President Kamala Harris is in the awkward position of trying to promise she’d be “different” from President Joe Biden, while not being able to offer any substantial ways in which she would differ from Biden. Add to that the reality that Harris has been in the White House as an active member of the Biden-Harris administration the past four years.

So you can’t blame people who have felt economic struggles in recent years for wanting to go in a different direction.

Recent polling shows former President Donald Trump gaining ground, especially in battleground states. And while Harris is losing popularity as the election approaches, Trump seems to be garnering more support – at least compared with the previous two presidential elections.

Trump is in a much better place in the polls at this time than he was in 2016 or 2020.

And a lot of that has to do with how voters feel about their finances.

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Majority of Americans say they’re worse off than four years ago

A new poll from Gallup highlights how dissatisfied the country is when it comes to the economy.

The survey found 52% of Americans say they are worse off now than they were four years ago – when Trump was still president. Only 39% said they are better off. Gallup states that the last time similar economic frustration showed up in a presidential election year was in 1992, when Carville made the economy an essential part of Clinton’s successful campaign.

Americans’ feelings about their own financial standing are tied, not surprisingly, to how they feel in general about the U.S. economy. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index showed a score of -26 (indicating concern with the economy and fear that it will get worse), which Gallup describes as “one of the worst election-year readings.”

That all spells trouble for Harris, who would rather keep voters’ focus on “democracy” and abortion.

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And it’s a boon to Trump, who can harken back to the strong economy during his term, before COVID-19.

As Gallup concludes: “Historical trends suggest that perceptions of personal wellbeing and economic confidence can significantly impact election outcomes.”

Shaming voters isn't an effective strategy

Harris’ struggles with key Democratic voting blocs, including Black men, have her campaign worried.

Former President Barack Obama has hit the campaign trail in a direct appeal to Black voters. On Tuesday, he’ll be in Detroit, with polls showing an extremely tight race in Michigan.

Obama has played up the idea that misogyny could be the culprit in voters' lack of enthusiasm for Harris.

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But Black men may be worried about the economy – much like the rest of the country.

A New York Times/Siena College poll this month of likely voters found 23% of Black men said the economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote.

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Last week, Harris hurriedly released an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” in a blatant ploy to buy their votes. Embarrassingly, the Harris campaign had to quickly clarify that the programs she outlined would be available to everyone on a “race-neutral basis.”

Such racial constraints in any government program would pose huge constitutional concerns and likely not survive a legal challenge.

These targeted gimmicks are likely not enough to distract voters from their very real economic troubles.

And Harris hasn’t given them any confidence she’d be able to handle things better than Biden – which is exactly what Trump wants.

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] or on X, formerly Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Opinion: Americans say they're worse off than 2020. It may help Trump