Opinion: This is Republicans' election to lose. Could Trump tank it for them? Heck yes.

After nearly four years of living under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, it turns out Americans are ready to go in a different direction.

At least that sure seems like what they’re saying.

These are the realities that the country has faced: a nearly open southern border; out-of-control spending; high costs for about everything; illegal executive branch overreach; lies about the president’s fitness.

It’s no surprise the top issues for voters this election are the economy and immigration. And as much as Harris has tried to brand herself the change candidate, that defies logic given her current role in the White House.

All this points to what should be a knockout year for Republicans. Recent polls and surveys make that clear.

Yet, there’s one glaring impediment to GOP success in November.

Donald Trump.

Republicans are in a better position than they've been in decades

A recent blockbuster survey from Gallup highlights how key measures before the election are all pointing in the Republican Party’s favor.

As the report states: “Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”

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For the first time in decades, more U.S. adults identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party (48%) compared with those who identify as Democrats or lean toward that party (45%). According to Gallup, this is also the first time Republicans have had “an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year.”

In addition, the survey found that Americans say the Republican Party has the edge (46%) over Democrats (41%) when it comes to addressing the country’s most pressing problems, including the economy, inflation and immigration.

Similarly, a new poll from YouGov found that the Republican Party is seen as better than the Democratic Party at handling immigration (44% vs. 32%) and the economy (43% vs. 31%). On inflation, Republicans also had a significant edge (42% vs. 28%).

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As if that weren’t enough, recent polling from CNN shows remarkable gains by the Republican presidential nominee among working-class voters. For instance, with trade and vocational school graduates, Trump holds a whopping 31-point lead over Harris.

Trump has also gained support among union households, and he’s up an impressive 17 points better than he was in 2020 among voters of color who didn't graduate from college. Biden won that group by 45 points in 2020, and now Harris leads by 28 points.

“Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation,” CNN’s chief data reporter Harry Enten observed on X.

Those numbers definitely spell trouble for Harris in labor-heavy swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which helped Trump win in 2016.

The guy at the top of the ticket could still blow it for GOP

This all is great news for Republicans ? and for any American who is ready for a new administration and Congress to address these top concerns.

I’m worried, however, that having Trump at the top of the ticket will put the kibosh on any hopes for a true red wave. Recall his involvement in the 2022 midterm elections and his backing of candidates, many of whom failed miserably.

Don’t get me wrong: Trump still has a tremendous following among his MAGA faithful. That won’t change. But the former president comes with too much baggage for many moderate Republicans and independent voters. His steady stream of outrageous comments, his legal woes and 2020 election claptrap are just too much for many voters.

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Democrats have overplayed their hand about Trump’s danger to democracy, however, and some voters actually see Democrats as more of a threat to our country.

For instance, a CBS News/YouGov poll taken last month of registered voters in Georgia found that 63% said they were “very concerned” about whether the country would have a functioning democracy in the next few years.

Yet, even in the battleground state where some of Trump’s worst attempted 2020 election meddling took place, voters say they think his policies would make democracy stronger (45%) than Harris’ approach (42%).

Americans are fed up with the direction of the country and are more open to supporting Republicans than they have been in years.

Will Trump screw it up?

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] or on X, formerly Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Opinion: Voters favor GOP, but Trump could still lose the election