‘The odds are against us’: Democrats in once-blue West Virginia survey loss

Nibbling appetizers off American-flag printed paper plates in a city hall basement, the group of Democrat voters had been listening to a party official’s appeals to get active in politics when Terri Rodebaugh stood up to air a grievance.

“One thing I want to say is I’m tired of being called a baby killer, which I am not,” said Rodebaugh, her shirt pink and her hair, like most others in the room, gray. Yet having such epithets hurled at them is what it has come to for party faithful and pro-choice West Virginians like Rodebaugh in Nicholas county.

For much of the 20th century, voters in Nicholas county and much of the rest of West Virginia were reliably Democratic, backing the party even in its worst years. That changed in 2000, when George W Bush won the state’s electoral votes, and by 2020, nearly 78% of Nicholas county voters had cast ballots for Donald Trump. West Virginians overall gave him the second-highest share of support of any state in the nation.

A few weeks before that year’s election, the then president’s adherents paraded through the county seat Summersville, and the Democrats held a counterprotest. Trump supporters then turned up outside the party’s offices in their pickup trucks, burning out their tires and kicking up gravel. The landlords called not long after and told the Democrats to leave, and ever since, the party has been itinerant, meeting in churches, restaurants and, most recently, Summersville’s city hall.

“I never dreamed Nicholas county would ever go Republican,” said 81-year-old John Jarrell, who has served on the local party committee for decades. “And I never dreamed West Virginia would ever go Republican.”

The Democratic party’s power in the state now seems on the brink of reaching its nadir.

Even as the GOP was consolidating its hold on the state’s politics, voters kept electing one Democrat: Joe Manchin, a two-term governor who won a Senate seat in 2010 and just over a decade later became one of the most controversial politicians in the country for refusing to support proposals by Joe Biden to fight the climate crisis, poverty and a host of other social ills.

Related: Can a socialist ex-marine fill Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia?

Manchin was scheduled to face voters again in 2024, and whether he could win a third full term representing his ruby red state was a subject of fierce debate. Now, West Virginians will never learn the answer – earlier this month, Manchin announced he would not run again for the Senate, and is openly mulling a third-party run for the presidency.

Few politics watchers believe any other Democrat can win Manchin’s seat, and by the start of 2025, the party may hold none of West Virginia’s statewide elected offices for the first time since 1931.

“We’re going to be underrepresented,” Pam Tucker-Cline, the chair of the Nicholas county Democratic party, said of Manchin’s exit as the 27 supporters who turned up for the meeting filtered out into the Summersville evening. “I don’t think people realize what he’s done for the state.”

Party leaders refuse to give up, but acknowledge they’re not quite sure what the path back to power is in a state that lacks so much of what makes Democrats successful elsewhere.

“We don’t plan to give up on any seat, and we know that the odds are against us, but we feel that West Virginians are worth fighting for,” said Mike Pushkin, the state Democratic party chair and a lawmaker in the state house of delegates.

“It’s been extremely hard for anybody with a D after their name in rural America, as of late, but we feel that things are definitely never static in politics, things are always changing.”

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In the first two years of Biden’s administration, Manchin became the rare kind of lawmaker who goes from state-level star to national fixation for the way he used his power to manipulate the president’s agenda.

While Democrats had an effective majority in the Senate, it was only by a single vote, giving any member the power to derail legislation that did not attract Republican support.

Manchin made his objections known after the president proposed Build Back Better, a huge plan to fight the climate crisis and poverty, offer universal paid parental leave and make childcare more affordable. The White House spent months negotiating with Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona senator who was the other holdout to the plan and last year left the Democratic party to become an independent.

Kayla Young, a Democratic member of West Virginia’s house of delegates, remembers advocacy organizations from around the country descending on the capital, Charleston, seeking ways to get Manchin to drop his blockade. “I worked with some of those groups. We literally were all Manchin whisperers for a year, because everybody just wanted to come and figure him out,” Young recalls.

As 2021 drew to a close, Manchin said he wouldn’t vote for the plan, citing its estimated $2tn cost and rising inflation, and Young remembers the organizations that had been so keen to hear from West Virginians swiftly departed.

“Seeing all those groups that I align with still come in and use us was not good. That did not feel good to just be used,” Young said.

In the years before Biden took office, the GOP used a similar sense of abandonment among West Virginians to dismantle what had been decades of Democratic dominance.

Democrats had controlled the governor’s mansion, the entire congressional delegation and the legislature with supermajorities simultaneously, and West Virginia Democrats see it as a point of pride that John F Kennedy, a Catholic, bagged the party’s presidential nomination in 1960 by triumphing in the mostly Protestant state.

There’s a feeling that we’ve been taken advantage of for years and years and years, and I think that plays into the the Maga message of score-settling

Mike Plante

That consensus ended in 2000 with Bush’s victory, and after Barack Obama won the White House eight years later, the GOP adopted an argument against his administration that proved especially potent: the Democrat was waging a “war on coal”. The industry has historically undergirded both the Appalachian state’s economy and cultural identity, but employment had been declining for decades as more mines automate extraction and power stations shift to cheaper forms of energy.

“West Virginia was ripe for flipping,” said Mike Plante, a Democratic strategist based in Charleston, describing a belief among the state’s residents that outsiders were intent on both harming its economy and disrespecting its culture. “There’s a feeling that we’ve kind of been taken advantage of for years and years and years, and I think that plays into the the Maga message of score-settling.”

In 2015, the GOP took control of both houses of the legislature for the first time in decades, and in the presidential election the following year, West Virginia voters gave Trump his largest share of support of any state.

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Four years later, Biden ousted Trump from office by rallying voters in suburbs and cities nationwide as well as racial minorities – all of which West Virginia lacks. The state is 91% white, and the population of Charleston, its largest city, is just over 47,000, while the rest of its 1.8 million residents are spread out in a handful of small cities, towns and villages dotting its landscape of rolling hills and narrow valleys.

Even strategies Democrats have used elsewhere to win elections in red states barely work in West Virginia. The GOP now holds supermajorities in both houses of the legislature, and after the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade last year, they quickly moved to ban abortion. Young represents one of the most competitive districts in the state, and says she successfully used her Republican opponent’s support for the ban to win a second term – but only by a razor-thin margin of 58 votes.

“In West Virginia, we thought that in 2022 … we would pick up more seats, and we lost them. So, it helped me. I don’t think it helped anybody else,” she said. The party today has three lawmakers in the 34-seat senate, and 11 in the 100-member house of delegates.

Last year, the Democrats did not field candidates for several legislative seats across the state, something Young, who serves as minority leader pro tempore in the legislature’s lower chamber, hopes the party will change. She also has her own re-election to worry about in 2024, a task she expects to be even more difficult now that Manchin has exited.

“Having him on the top of the ticket on the ballot was really good for all Democrats in the state, whether you agree with him or not, and sometimes I do and sometimes I don’t,” she said.

There’s no telling if Manchin would have won another term, but Sam Workman, director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University, said even an unsuccessful run would have forced the GOP to allocate resources to the state that they are now free to spend elsewhere – probably in Ohio and Montana, both red states with Democratic senators whose re-election campaigns will be crucial if the party is to keep control of Congress’s upper chamber.

At the state level, the Democrats are on the defensive, their elected positions confined to a handful of mayor’s offices and legislative districts in more populated areas.

Related: From coal to kayaking: West Virginia’s miners turn to tourism to pay the bills

But Workman said the party had an opportunity to champion West Virginia’s economic transition away from extractive industries like coal and towards tourism and renewable energy – areas where Manchin’s mark will be felt long after he leaves the Capitol.

After months of deadlock, the senator last year reached a compromise with Biden to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which lowers prescription drug prices and will subsidize the country’s transition to clean energy. He’s also been a champion of the New River Gorge, a recreation area popular with whitewater rafters, hikers and rock climbers, where he helped establish a national park in 2020.

“Whatever the Democratic party is going to be going forward, it has to come to grips with these transitions and have coherent messaging around those transitions, and I just don’t think we’re there yet,” Workman said.

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The long odds for Democrats have not dampened Tucker-Cline’s enthusiasm to find the party a new office in the center of Summersville in time for next November’s vote. She’s been looking all over town for a storefront to hang campaign signs and welcome volunteers, while trying to coax many of the county’s younger voters into supporting the party openly.

“The ones that really want to put signs in their yard are the old Democrats. You have to really work on these young Democrats to make them feel like they’re not going to hurt themselves or hurt their businesses,” Tucker-Cline said.

She’s got a lead on one property right in the middle of Summersville, but it’s on the second floor, and their most active volunteers are elderly – she worries they’ll struggle with the stairs, but insists on the party headquarters being right where Nicholas county residents can see it.

“If we have to go upstairs in the building in downtown we’ll do that,” Tucker-Cline said. “We want to be in the red country.”