Will North Carolina be a top Trump-Biden battleground state? What Super Tuesday showed us
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — In 2020, Anderson Clayton was organizing on behalf of Democrats in rural Kentucky and Appalachia when the results came in showing her home state of North Carolina had once again chosen a Republican candidate in the race for president.
Donald Trump claimed North Carolina over Joe Biden for his narrowest victory of any state in the country — just 1.34 percentage points, or about 75,000 votes. Clayton called it “a kick in the teeth.”
Although Biden would still go on to win the presidency, Clayton said North Carolina’s 2020 results sent her a wakeup call. She moved back to her small hometown north of Raleigh and got to work.
Today, she’s the youngest state party chair in the United States, and she’s among those who have their eyes set on a 2024 rematch. And this time, she vows, Democrats will finally turn North Carolina blue.
“2020 was the kick in the gut that I needed, I think, to make me think that local organizing is what we have to get back to,” she said.
For years, North Carolina has been a tantalizing prospect for Democrats, who eagerly note its shifting demographics and its willingness to elect Democrats to state-level positions.
But, for all their attention, North Carolina has remained stubbornly red in presidential contests. With the exception of Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, the state has voted for a Republican in every presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In 2024, some pundits question whether North Carolina will remain as elusive as a Charlie Brown football — temptingly held out, only to be pulled away again at the last minute.
But it’s not stopping Democrats from trying.
The Biden campaign has said it’s all in, eyeing North Carolina as a key pickup opportunity to expand his election map this November — one of a handful of battleground states that will determine the next president.
And campaign officials pointed to Super Tuesday’s primary results as evidence they have an opening.
Trump’s “extreme agenda has lost him critical votes in suburban and exurban areas in key battlegrounds, which his primary contest with Nikki Haley has only reinforced,” Biden’s campaign leaders wrote in a strategy memo released Wednesday morning. “Primary after primary has exposed deep divisions among Republicans to Donald Trump’s detriment — particularly with moderate and suburban voters who will be critical to victory in November."
Although many Republicans agree the state will be competitive in November, some are quick to call for a reality check.
"Barack Obama ran one of the best campaigns in the history of Western civilization," said Jonathan Felts, a Republican political consultant based in Raleigh "… I only bring that up to level set and just point out that the only time the Democrats have won the state on the presidential level this century was Barack Obama in 2008. And he ran a picture-perfect, billion-dollar campaign."
And even with that campaign juggernaut, Felts said, Obama won by just a fraction of a percentage point over Republican John McCain.
“So, they've never had a big victory by any stretch of the imagination,” Felts said.
Super Tuesday results highlight opportunities, weaknesses for Biden and Trump in North Carolina
Trump easily won the Republican primary contest with 74% of the vote over former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley’s 23%.
But Haley, who ended her presidential run Wednesday morning, had a strong showing in well-educated, suburban areas around Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham that have trended toward Democrats — places the Biden campaign argued will be critical to winning a general election in November.
ABC exit polling showed 50% of Haley’s supporters in North Carolina said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, and 80% were unwilling to say they’ll support the party’s nominee — regardless of who it is.
The numbers suggest some of Haley’s supporters are up for grabs for Democrats, and Biden made an immediate overture to them Wednesday.
“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign,” he said in a statement after Haley announced she would suspend her campaign. "I know there is a lot we won’t agree on. But on the fundamental issues of preserving American democracy, on standing up for the rule of law, on treating each other with decency and dignity and respect, on preserving NATO and standing up to America’s adversaries, I hope and believe we can find common ground."
Trump, in a statement to his social media platform Truth Social, criticized Haley for getting “TROUNCED” and drawing support from Democrats before he, too, invited “all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our nation.”
Haley did not immediately endorse Trump Wednesday, as many of her competitors have done.
More: How Nikki Haley defied all expectations – except one
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the 23% of votes cast for Haley in the Republican primary could be seen as protest votes against Trump.
But he said there were also warning signs for Biden, who earned 87% of the vote in the state’s Democratic primary, while 13% voted “no preference.”
Kondik said those "no preference" votes could similarly be read as a protest.
“The results we saw in North Carolina and elsewhere were pretty familiar in that they illustrated some of the weaker points for both Biden and Trump” going into a general election, he said.
Will North Carolina truly be a presidential battleground in November?
North Carolina may not be a presidential swing state, having voted almost exclusively for Republicans for decades. But Republicans’ winning margins have grown narrower, culminating with Trump’s slim victory in 2020.
In an analysis of the economic climate that will help shape the presidential race, Moody’s Analytics predicts that Biden will win North Carolina by less than a percentage point in November, helping him to secure the White House over Trump.
Chief economist Mark Zandi, who helped author the report, said North Carolina is one of five states in the analysis that they expect to be decided by less than a percentage point, making it a clear battleground in his view.
But with such narrow margins, any minor fluctuation in the political or economic climate could change that outcome, he said. If gas prices hit $4 for any meaningful amount of time, for example, or if mortgage rates go up, the race shifts in Trump’s favor.
The race “is on a proverbial razor’s edge,” Zandi said. “It’s very, very close.”
Pulling off a victory would be an enormous lift for Democrats. Most recent polling there puts Trump ahead of Biden by anywhere from 3 to 15 percentage points.
Kondik said Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the North Carolina presidential race as “leans Republican,” rather than a true toss-up — largely based on its past voting behavior.
“It will be certainly more surprising if Biden won it than Trump won it,” he said. “Democrats have gotten close over the years, although only Obama broke through, and that was part of a kind of modern Democratic landslide.”
In 2020, North Carolina was one of seven states decided by 3 percentage points or less, and it was the only one Biden lost. So it makes strategic sense for the Biden campaign to target it in 2024, Kondik said.
Putting Trump on defense in North Carolina and forcing him to spend precious time and resources campaigning there — particularly in the midst of his ongoing legal battles — may be a strategic win on its own.
Kondik and other analysts agree that North Carolina is a nice-to-win state for Biden — but it’s a must-win for Trump.
“I can't imagine Trump winning the general election without North Carolina,” Kondik said.
North Carolina Republican Chairman Michael Whatley, who is Trump’s choice to be the next national GOP chairman, shared a similar sentiment at a Greensboro rally for Trump ahead of Super Tuesday.
“We cannot win the White House without winning North Carolina, without winning battleground states all across this country,” he said.
What might be different for North Carolina Democrats in 2024?
North Carolina’s Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who will leave office after November’s election because of term limits, said in an interview he believes the “road to the presidency” will go through his state.
He said he’s conveyed that sense of urgency to the president's reelection arm, including to Biden directly.
“We'd like to see a strong investment in North Carolina, and a strong grassroots get-out-the-vote campaign effort, which I believe they are going to do,” Cooper told USA Today.
“You also have to think about 2020, that race was close, but Democrats didn't get a chance to do what we do best, and that is taking people to the polls and knocking on doors. The pandemic prevented that. … You're going to see a significant explosion of that 2024.”
Clayton, the state party chair, said the Biden campaign has begun organizing on the ground earlier than in past years, and she hopes it will pay off.
“In 2008, when Barack Obama won the state, it was because people around the state would say that they felt somebody was everywhere on behalf of him,” she said. “And I think that we didn't have that same type of infrastructure or apparatus in 2020. And we're building it earlier this year than we had ever anticipated, and that's a really exciting thing for us.”
The Biden campaign installed a five-person North Carolina leadership team earlier this year to kickstart the efforts.
The Biden campaign said it has been running ads in North Carolina since the campaign’s launch, including many targeting the state’s increasingly diverse population.
The ads include a spot featuring a Black farmer from North Carolina speaking about the administration’s rural investments: one focused on protecting abortion access and another highlighting the administration’s investments in historically black colleges and universities.
Republicans predict North Carolina will remain fertile ground for Donald Trump
The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
But Felts, the Republican strategist, said although Trump has not yet installed a state team in North Carolina, the state’s Republican Party is active and organized so the campaign can “plug and play” when it comes to time to campaign more aggressively.
Nicole Schlinger, a Republican political consultant with clients in North Carolina, said the race to replace Cooper for governor will be an added dynamic to the presidential contest.
Republicans on Tuesday nominated Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as their gubernatorial nominee. He’s seen as a rising star on the right made in Trump’s image, but he’s been dogged by numerous controversial statements, including accusations of antisemitism.
The race is expected to be among the most competitive in the country.
More: The North Carolina governor matchup is set. Here's what to know ahead of general election.
“This is a turnout election,” Schlinger said. “The question is not necessarily, ‘Will I vote for the Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?’ It's really is, ‘Is it worth it for me to go out and vote at all?’ And candidates who are extremely energizing like Mark Robinson or Donald Trump tend to get people to come out who are not regular voters, people who don't always vote.”
North Carolinians weigh their role as potential battleground voters
Ava Roseboro, a 58-year-old independent voter from Charlotte, said she isn't thrilled about either choice at the top of the presidential ticket.
“It sucks,” she said. “I don’t think any of them really care about the everyday people.”
Roseboro said she was still deciding exactly how to vote, but she thinks Trump is more honest, and she said she appreciates North Carolina’s potential role as a battleground state.
“I think everybody's feeling that way. They're feeling like hey, I have a choice and my choice will make a difference,” she said. “And that's what people don't understand. Voting is a power, right? It's a privilege, and it's a power. You have the privilege and the power to do what you want with it.”
Tanya Lewis, a precinct chair with the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party who was volunteering outside a polling location Tuesday, said there’s high energy around getting Biden re-elected. But she worries about whether the campaign will focus enough attention on Black and brown voters.
“I have to be honest with you, I am not completely satisfied, because I do not think that there's sufficient focus and resources going into Black and brown communities, especially the African American community,” she said. “… So you know, I'm glad that they're (organizing in the state) early. Because that says, ‘OK, we hear you, you're in play.’ But I definitely want to see a much greater focus on the African American community and the Latin X community.”
Maxine Carr, a 71-year-old Charlotte resident, cast a vote for Biden outside an elementary school Tuesday afternoon.
“Donald Trump is insane. Joe Biden is old," she said. "But he's the lesser of the two evils. And my concerns would be benefits that are being taken away from senior citizens. Certainly the border. That's the only thing I agree with Donald Trump on. There needs to be some stuff going on at the border to protect us from that.”
Carr said she feels the importance of North Carolina’s role this election, and she’s doing everything she can to encourage her friends and family to get involved early.
“I got up today and did my part,” she said. “I made sure I called all the young people in my family who are voting age and encouraged them to go do the same thing. And that's all we can do is our part.”
Her encouragement may have also come with a steep threat.
“I threatened them no Sunday dinner,” she laughed. “If they don't come up with that little (I voted) sticker, no Sunday dinner at grandma's house!”
USA Today Chief Political Correspondent Phillip M. Bailey contributed reporting.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Democrats eye North Carolina as a top target. Republicans are skeptical
