The North Carolina governor matchup is set. Here's what to know ahead of general election.
Super Tuesday is over, and the matchup for North Carolina’s 76th governor is set. Now, the actual race begins.
Josh Stein, the Democratic attorney general, and Mark Robinson, the Republican lieutenant governor, will be their respective party’s nominee for governor in the general election on Nov. 5.
Stein won against former state Supreme Court Associate Justice Mike Morgan, while Robinson defeated State Treasurer Dale Folwell and attorney Bill Graham.
Primary election results: 2024 North Carolina Primary Election Results
Stein and Robinson are polar opposites on hot-button issues and in their personal background. If Stein were to win in November, he would become North Carolina’s first Jewish governor. Robinson would be the state’s first Black governor.
As the general election in November inches closer, here are four things you can expect in the race for the highest seat in the state.
1. Expect national attention
With Robinson endorsed by Donald Trump and Stein by Gov. Roy Cooper, the gubernatorial race has already made national headlines for its importance and reflection of the likely faceoff between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
As of now, the race is expected to be a toss-up. A February East Carolina University Center for Survey Research poll, taken before Super Tuesday results, showed Robinson and Stein tied at 41%.
NC governor's race: Robinson, Stein win primaries, headed for faceoff in November
2. Candidates to court Black North Carolinians
Robinson, the first Black lieutenant governor in North Carolina, does not garner broad support from Black voters across the state.
In a poll from Meredith College, taken before Super Tuesday results, a presumptive match-up between Stein and Robinson showed that 62.2% of polled Black or African Americans would vote for Stein, whereas 3.1% would vote for Robinson. Jason Roberts, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said he expects Robinson to pursue African-American voters’ approval.
3. North Carolina is changing and fast
The Tar Heel state may have been an easy win for Republicans in years prior, but thanks to growth in population and diversity, the competition has heated up, according to reporting from Phillip M. Bailey and Savannah Kuchar at USA TODAY.
Sarah Treul, an associate professor with UNC Chapel Hill’s Department of Political Science, said the key may be convincing dissatisfied voters that the governor race actually matters.
“There are a lot of voters out there who are turned off by the candidates at the top of the ticket,” she said. If either gubernatorial candidate can make a case for turning out to vote for governor—can argue that this race is critical to the state—that person might be at an advantage.”
4. Hot topics: Will they shy away?
Robinson and Stein field largely different stances on divisive issues like abortion, immigration and education.
Robinson has a history of addressing these topics head-on. At a Trump event in Greensboro recently, he echoed Trump’s sentiment that the border was “open and gushing.”
“The strength behind me is Jesus Christ, but folks, we have trouble in this country. We have a wide-open border,” Robinson told the audience, according to reporting from USA TODAY.
Roberts said it’s hard to predict if the race will generate more or less heat, but voters can expect Stein to pressure Robinson on his abortion stance and Robinson on Stein’s immigration stance.
Treul said post-Super Tuesday could be a turning point for conversation around these issues.
“In his acceptance speech, Robinson shied away from some of the ‘hot-button’ issues such as abortion, guns, and transgender that often appear in his speeches,” Treul said. “He took a much more moderate approach. That said, I still expect healthcare, including abortion and transgender care, to appear in the campaigns of both candidates.”
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Truel explained that Stein might be able to clinch more voters if he displays his accomplishments while avoiding some of those hot-button issues—a decidedly challenging balancing act.
No matter the details, Roberts said he expects the race to be “expensive and tightly contested,” meaning “voters will have lots of opportunities to learn more about the candidates.”
This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: NC governor's race: 4 things to watch for in Robinson-Stein faceoff