What we learned in March primary for November election
Ohio got left out from much of the national focus on the 2020 general election, with the former bellwether state won handily a second time by Donald Trump even as he lost the election. And there wasn’t a U.S. Senate race.
However, there will be plenty of attention this November with Ohio as the scene of one of the nation’s most consequential races in the struggle for control of the Senate. Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, coming off an impressive March 19 primary victory, will try to unseat third-term Democrat Sherrod Brown, among the state’s historically most successful politicians.
Some lessons from March and look-aheads to November:
Look-Ahead: Can Ohio be competitive in the presidential race?
Some Democrats and pundits have suggested the high-profile Senate race, likely to bring in record amounts of campaign spending as well as a parade or campaign surrogates into the state, could help tighten Ohio’s presidential race after two straight 8-percentage-point Trump victories. The thinking is that Democratic and independent turnout will be higher because of Brown’s battle, providing an opening for President Joe Biden to at least make Trump spend resources defending the state.
That sounds like wishful thinking to David Niven, a University of Cincinnati political science professor.
"Presidential elections revolved around Ohio for more than 100 years," he said. "Trump is no Galileo, but since he arrived on the scene Ohio hasn't spent a single day as a competitive state, much less as the center of the presidential universe."
Trump’s general election domination of Ohio appears likely to continue, with a half-dozen other states serving as the 2024 battlegrounds.
"It's unlikely there will be any spillover from the Senate race to the presidential race. Brown will be running to save himself, and Biden will not be running here at all," Niven said by email.
Lesson: Trump a valuable Ohio campaign surrogate
While a sitting president’s visit would automatically draw extensive (and free) coverage, Trump, former president and current leader in many polls, accomplishes the same. He draws crowds and coverage any time he comes to Ohio and his Dayton-area rally three days before the primary gave Moreno a major late boost.
His endorsement of Moreno two years after he endorsed Senate winner J.D. Vance indicates he has more impact in Ohio than in some other states.
So Moreno has the Trump card to play this fall.
Look-ahead: Republicans try to pin labels on Brown
Brown has long made any list of the most-liberal members of the Senate. And Republicans have taken to lumping him with Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator who has described himself as "a democratic socialist."
Moreno, a wealthy business executive, upped the ante on primary night, saying it’s time to retire "the old commie."
Brown has long been able to rely on his "dignity of work" brand of relating to and defending working-class Ohioans.
"I saw Bernie Moreno call Sherrod Brown an 'old commie,' and what I heard was a state campaign," Niven commented. "It’s just tired, paint-by-numbers rhetoric that doesn’t even serve his purpose. Moreno says 'commie' and Brown will say 'I fight for working people: who do you fight for?'"
Asking voters to choose between his new face and the very familiar Brown could backfire.
"Sherrod Brown is known and respected. Bernie Moreno’s a car dealer with a record of unfair labor practices. It’s not a favorable comparison for Moreno."
Niven suggested Moreno should run against Washington, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Shumer and Democrats not getting results on issues such as the border.
"Make it about party and that’s a comparison ? however hyperbolic ? that Moreno could win. Make it about the two people running, and Moreno will be helping Sherrod Brown win a fourth term."
Lesson: Democrats confident Moreno is vulnerable
In the last days of the Republican primary, TV commercials appeared highlighting Moreno’s support from Trump and his conservative positions. Helpful to Moreno with Republican voters but coming from a surprising source ? a group supporting Democratic majority control of the Senate.
As Republican Gov. Mike DeWine observed, that was a sign Democrats wanted to face Moreno, not DeWine’s choice, state Sen. Matt Dolan.
Moreno’s primary campaign was dogged by negative reports surfacing, such as his having settled a series of wage theft lawsuits and getting caught shredding a case document. His primary opponents highlighted past inconsistencies on positions such as immigration.
Like Vance in 2022, Moreno is in his first general election race. With little experience in debates and off-the-cuff questioning and campaign banter, he faces someone who’s been in elective office nearly continuously for 50 years. Brown’s personal and political lives have been probed for years, while investigative reporters and Democratic opposition research diggers are taking first looks into his Colombia-born opponent’s past.
Look-ahead: The role of abortion in Ohio’s campaigns
How much abortion and related reproductive issues will influence voters’ choices this fall is a big unknown at this point.
Abortion rights supporters such as Brown can take encouragement from two statewide votes less than a year ago in which Ohioans expressed support at some 57% for abortion access, voting in November to make it part of the state constitution.
Moreno takes an anti-abortion stance, supporting a 15-week ban although he’s said he would support exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the pregnant woman’s life.
Lesson: Don’t put too much stock in polls
The saying is that polls offer a snapshot of the status of a race at a given time. It seems many Ohio polls were showing blurred pictures.
Entering March, most polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Moreno and Dolan. While Trump’s late campaign visit certainly gave Moreno a push, it doesn’t fully account for Moreno’s nearly 20-percent margin landslide.
While polls reflected Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s looming also-ran status, the election-night drama they had indicated quickly turned into a rout for Moreno after the vote counts began.
Polls in other recent statewide Ohio races also hadn’t looked so good on Election Night. Something to consider when new polls are rolling out this fall.
EXTRA POINT
Time to change on Rose's ban from baseball
I’ve just become a switch-hitter about Pete Rose’s lifetime exile from baseball.
The Enquirer’s Reds beat writer Gordon Wittenmyer and sports columnist Jason Williams have debated this issue in their columns. Wittenmyer finds the Hit King’s continued ban for betting on baseball hypocritical after Major League Baseball formed links to casino gambling and now plans to move the Oakland A’s franchise to the U.S. capital of gambling itself, Las Vegas.
I’ve long agreed with the stance Williams expressed in their most recent exchange: "It’s a lifetime ban. He bet on baseball, and he knew better ? and then he lied about it."
Sure, Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame based solely on his playing career. But AFTER he served the sentence he knew awaited him, was also my thinking.
However, this past weekend, I was at a sports memorabilia show in West Chester where Rose was the featured attraction.
Although Rose’s autograph is hardly a rare commodity ? besides hits, he’s undoubtedly also MLB’s all-time leader in autographs sold ? hundreds of people lined up both days to pay prices starting at $59 to get him to sign baseballs, cards, seats from Crosley Field and Riverfront Stadium, and even that goofy photo of him and Tony Perez grinning while sitting in adjacent toilet stalls.
And to take photos with him, chat briefly, and remember all the good times.
Several said that with Rose due to turn 83 in a few days, and after the recent deaths of his Big Red Machine teammates ace pitcher Don Gullett and reserve catcher Bill Plummer, they didn’t want to miss this chance to see the Cincinnati-born star in person at least one more time.
They forgave Rose long ago. Now they just want to savor all the good memories.
Think of the excitement and smiles across Reds Country if you give the fans the chance to watch another Rose event they will long remember and cherish: his Hall of Fame induction.
Dan Sewell is a regular Opinion contributor. Contact him at [email protected]
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: What we learned in March primary for November election
