We all know Trump will tell many lies during his RNC speech. These are his favorites.

Let's begin with a prediction: The Republican National Convention is under way in Milwaukee and former President Donald Trump is likely to tell many lies there before it ends Thursday.

How do we know? History. The fact-checkers really earned their pay after Trump's nomination acceptance speeches at the 2016 and 2020 conventions.

Will Trump lean into the truth now, with his new national "unity" messaging, after surviving an assassination attempt Saturday? Seems unlikely. But we can hope.

Trump lies so often and so blatantly that it's easy to be bewildered in the whirlwind of prevarication. But he does become predictable if you listen to him long enough and understand the circumstances and context swirling around his remarks.

I met Trump as a failing casino operator in 2005 and then started covering him as a presidential candidate in 2015. With two decades of experience, I've narrowed the field to the five most likely lies Trump will tell this week ? if he returns to what he considers a normal way of politicking ? and why he feels the need to tell them.

Trump is such a prodigious liar because he knows a blitz of lies eventually becomes too hard to fight

But first, let's talk about why Trump lies so much.

First, and most obviously, Trump has a hypersensitivity to accountability that often makes acknowledging the truth impossible for him. Stop and think – when was the last time Trump took responsibility for anything that reflected poorly on him or his one term as president or his campaign?

Then there is ego. Trump is widely regarded – correctly – as a narcissist. And he has a loyal base of supporters eager to believe anything he says while lashing out at fact-checkers for the temerity of telling the truth. Imagine the sense of power an egocentric politician experiences from that kind of obedience.

GOP lets Trump lie: Republicans give Trump a pass on accountability. Biden needs that from Democrats.

But Trump is also an astute image merchant. Look at how he reacted after Saturday's shooting, understanding the moment, using it to pose for fist-pumping photos that have already become an iconic tool for fundraising.

Trump understands the impact of flooding the field with falsehoods, a deluge so inescapable that some voters might accept at fact what they don't know to be a lie. Here, Trump can chart how well he is doing by how successfully his lies penetrate the electorate.

Politicians from any party are likely to stretch the truth if it helps their campaigns. But Trump's Republican backers in the past eight years, so eager to win, have pushed aside reason and reality if they conflict with what they want voters to believe.

Trump will lie about the American legal system and defend the criminals who attacked the Capitol

Now to the lies.

First, I'm betting we'll hear at least once during the convention the version of the "The Star-Spangled Banner" sung by the "J6 Prison Choir," inmates serving time for their roles in the attack and riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump has made the song part of the opening act at his rallies.

Here Trump is openly trying to rewrite history, to tell voters they didn't really see what we all saw on that day, when his supporters assaulted police officers, smashed windows and defaced property while trying to overturn the election. In his rallies, Trump calls these criminals "warriors" and "victims" while vowing to pardon them.

Trump on Monday cited what he called "the January 6th Hoax in Washington" in a long screed against the country's criminal justice system in a post to his social media site Truth Social.

And, among the many Republican delegates nominating Trump this week are people who attended his Jan. 6 rally before the riot and some who have been criminally charged in fake-elector schemes drawn up to overturn the 2020 election, The Washington Post noted Tuesday.

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Second, and speaking of the criminal courts, expect Trump to blame President Joe Biden for his conviction in May on 34 felony counts, along with indictments in Georgia and Washington, D.C., for alleged election interference, and in Florida for allegedly refusing to return classified documents after leaving office.

A judge in Florida dismissed the documents case Monday, but it might be revived in a U.S. Department of Justice appeal.

One of the 20 planks in the Republican platform for his convention calls to "end the weaponization of government against the American people." The only American person they're talking about there is the guy at the top of the ticket.

Trump will tell lies about immigration and Black voters

Third, Trump has always relished in casting himself as the only person capable of fixing the country's long-lingering immigration problem.

He has revived his previous distortions from the 2016 campaign about a crime wave crossing the border. In last month's debate with Biden, Trump claimed that "millions" of migrants have "come in here from prisons, jails and mental institutions" to "destroy our country."

The GOP lies on immigration: Republicans really want you to think noncitizens are voting in droves. They're not.

There's no proof that foreign governments are emptying prisons and mental institutions into America. And Trump, earlier this year, forced Republicans to ditch a bipartisan immigration reform bill because he didn't want Biden to score a victory in an election year.

Also, violent crime rates are falling, not rising.

Fourth, Trump often pivots from immigration to economics for Black American voters. Here, he revisits and revises one of his most astounding lies. Trump in 2020 claimed he had "done more for Black Americans than anybody, with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln." Trump in 2024 again puts himself on par with Lincoln.

Trump suggested during the debate that migrants are taking "Black jobs." That backfired for the ex-president, with many asking what exactly is a "Black job"?

And the unemployment rate for Black Americans is lower with Biden as president than it was for Trump.

You knew this was coming. He's definitely going to lie about the 2020 election.

Fifth, no modern presidential election would be complete without Trump complaining before, during and after that he is being cheated. Nobody loves playing pretend victim more. He pitches phony claims of voter fraud as a transgression against his supporters.

Trump won an election in 2016 (while claiming he was cheated) and lost an election in 2020 (while threatening Democracy with his fake claims of being cheated).

Remember his ego and narcissism and inability to accept responsibility? Trump ran an inept campaign four years ago. But he can't take that kind of blame. Much easier to say it was stolen.

A standard line in Trump's rally speeches is that his enemies are "not after me. They're after you. I just happen to be standing in their way."

Expect to hear that, too, this week. It usually gets a cheer, as Trump enjoys watching supporters swallow the lie and the supporters soak up the false affinity of fake victimhood.

Follow USA TODAY elections columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump RNC speech: Expect these lies from the Republican convention