Kamala Harris nudges to a 4-point lead over Trump in Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters

Vice President Kamala Harris has a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters in Wisconsin, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday.

Among registered voters, 52% supported Harris and 48% supported Trump. The numbers were the same among voters considered likely to vote, based on their voting record since 2016.

That represents a slight boost for Harris from the last poll released in early August. In that poll, 50% of registered voters supported Trump and 49% backed Harris. Among likely voters, it was 50% for Harris and 49% for Trump.

The new poll surveyed 822 registered voters, 738 of whom are considered likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters was plus or minus 4.7 points, and plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters.

"These changes are all inside that margin of error," poll director Charles Franklin noted. But other findings in the poll show "Harris is in a little bit better shape this time than last time."

More: Harris and the Democrats are outdueling Trump and Republicans in the Wisconsin ad wars

The poll release comes a day after the first debate between Harris and Trump, though the poll was conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 5. The Marquette survey is considered one of the highest-quality polls in the country.

RFK Jr.'s polling has declined, most voters know he dropped out

Factoring in third-party candidates like Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver, Harris leads 47% compared to Trump's 43% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support had dropped steadily over the past months, now down to 6% in the new poll from 8% in the August poll.

That multi-candidate race adds up to about a 9% total third-party vote in Wisconsin, Franklin said, which is "a good bit bigger than what we normally see. The biggest total third-party vote recently was in 2016, when it was 5 1/2% total for all the third-party candidates. In 2020, it was only 1 1/2%."

The poll released Wednesday is the first installment since Kennedy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23. The vast majority of Wisconsin voters were aware Kennedy decided to drop out: 86% of registered voters said they heard the news he was suspending his campaign, while 14% did not.

Kennedy's name remains on the November ballot in Wisconsin, after election officials cited a state law that prevents him from removing his name. Kennedy has since sued to pull his name from the ballot. Local clerks in Wisconsin must start sending absentee ballots to voters by Sept. 19.

Voters view Walz more favorably than Vance as VP pick

The Wednesday release is also the first Marquette poll conducted after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was nominated as Democrats' choice for vice president. Democrats consider Walz helpful to the campaign in Wisconsin, especially in the western part of the state, which shares media markets with Minnesota.

More: Gilbert: Why presidential campaigns heap attention on western Wisconsin

In the poll, 43% of Wisconsin voters viewed Walz favorably and 37% viewed him unfavorably, with 19% saying they haven't heard enough or didn't know. Republican vice presidential candidate and Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance is viewed favorably by 37% of voters and unfavorably by 47%, with 16% having no opinion.

About 90% of Democrats considered Walz an "excellent" or "good" pick for vice president. In the poll released in early August, about 77% of Republicans considered Vance an "excellent" or "good" running mate selection.

That still means a majority of Democrats and Republicans are pleased with their party's vice presidential nominee before the two debate Oct. 1, Franklin noted.

More voters also consider Vance to be "very conservative," while fewer consider Walz to be "very liberal." Voters don't consider Walz as liberal as Harris, while more voters consider Vance more conservative than Trump.

"Whatever Walz's record as governor was, which has been a point of attack for Republicans against him, the public at least so far, at least here in Wisconsin is not seeing him as extremist," Franklin said.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Kamala Harris nudges to a 4-point lead over Trump in Marquette poll