Kamala Harris holds small lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, exclusive poll finds

WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris has a small lead over former President Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

With just six weeks until the election, Harris leads Trump in Michigan by three points, 48% to 45%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The results are within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error. The poll was taken Sept. 16-19.

Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes, is regarded as an important swing state by the Harris and Trump campaigns, as they look for different pathways to accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Four percent of Michigan voters remain undecided, the poll showed.

Most people who have made up their minds are firmly in one camp or the other. Nearly 93% said their mind is made up. Just 5% said they might change their minds.

Jeremy Parsons, who is a registered Democrat but considers himself more independent leaning, said he is supporting Harris, the Democratic candidate, because he thinks she can relate better to Americans and will be more willing to stand up to big corporations. He loathes Trump and is tired of the country being run by wealthy white men.

“I’d vote for a cockroach-infested hemorrhoid over Donald Trump,” said Parsons, 46, an antiques dealer from Holly, Michigan.

Trump might not be for everybody, but he knows what’s best for the country, said Olivia McKewen, 27, of Mount Pleasant, Michigan. An aspiring esthetician and a soon-to-be-married mother of a 2-year-old boy, McKewen said Trump’s directness is needed in these hard times.

“Trump reminds me of my father, who can be brutally honest, even if it hurts your feelings. Sometimes the truth can hurt,” McKewen said. “He’s not always there to make you feel better. He’s not going to fill your ears up with some good, soft words. He gets straight to the point: America can be better.”

Extra candidates make race less predictable

Eight candidates will appear on the Michigan ballot, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, the Republican candidate. Kennedy is supported by roughly 1% of those polled, while five other candidates get less than 1%.

Although those margins seem small, they could make a profound difference in the national race, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

"If the Kamala Harris margin shrinks to a 1-point lead, the entire state hinges on the fringes of the Michigan ballot," he said. The behavior of third-party voters ? people who are mocked for wasting their votes ? could make the difference if they rotate to either Harris or Trump."

Kennedy has been trying to get his name removed from some ballots, especially in battleground states such as Michigan (though he is trying to get his name on the ballot in New York despite not being a candidate, apparently in an attempt to weaken Harris' expected support there).

The Michigan Court of Appeals ordered Kennedy's name removed from the state’s ballot, but the Michigan Supreme Court, on which Democratic nominees hold a 4-3 edge, reversed that ruling in a split decision. Kennedy has appealed to the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals.

Harris leads Trump by three points (48%-45%) in the bellwether Kent County, which includes Grand Rapids and the surrounding area. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 48% to 45% in Kent County in 2016, while Joe Biden beat Trump there 52% to 46% in 2020.

The poll shows a huge gender gap between the leading candidates, with women backing Harris over Trump 56% to 37%. Men prefer Trump over Harris, 54% to 39%. Trump has a slight edge over Harris among independent voters, 42% to 41%.

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Greg Yoder, 63, of Muskegon, Michigan, is an independent voter who’s supporting Trump. Yoder, who is unemployed, said he prefers Trump’s foreign and immigration policies and believes he would be a better commander-in-chief than Harris.

“She’s very standoffish and talks in circles,” he said. “I don’t believe anything she says.”

Philip Robbins, a Democrat from Almont, Michigan, is backing Harris because he is concerned about the economy.

“This mass inflation is because of choices that were made during the Trump years,” said Robbins, 48, a crane operator. “And it’s great if everybody’s gas prices are real low. But if the rich are getting richer and the poor are staying poor, how’s that helping anybody? I’ve always been more for the working man and making sure that the middle class is taken care of.”

Roxann Alonzo, 61, a lifelong Democrat from Novi, Michigan, said Trump feeds off the chaos he helps to create. She doesn’t understand how he manages to keep the election a close race.

“I don’t like the hate he stirs up. The hate used to be hidden, but he’s normalized it. He festers it,” Alonzo said. “He creates controversy because that’s his only agenda.”

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Alonzo said that, as a Latina, she’s proud to see Harris, “a fellow woman of color,” emerge as the Democratic nominee, despite feeling that Biden was “bullied” from running again. But Alonzo thinks Harris wants to help Americans, unlike Trump who she thinks is “running to stay out of jail.”

“Kamala Harris gives me a sense of hope,” Alonzo said. “I want people to vote with their hearts and their pocketbooks because if Trump wins, we have these tariffs and nearly everything will be even more expensive.”

Still on the fence

In a sign of how close the race remains, Candy Meintze 64, of Stevenson, Michigan, said she’s “officially undecided,” even though she’s currently leaning toward Trump.

“I’m not staying home. I’m going to vote,” said Meintze a married grandmother of seven and great-grandmother of three. “My main issue with Trump is that he sometimes doesn’t know how to keep his mouth shut. I agree with his stances on abortion, the tax cuts and how he would handle immigration, but he just needs to stay on topic and be more focused.”

Kamala Harris' appeal to Republicans: Trump is weak on foreign policy

A part-time bookkeeper, Meintze said she has her doubts about Harris, especially on the economy. She’s uncertain where Harris would find the funding to give up to $25,000 in down payment support for first-time homebuyers and capping child care costs at 7% of working families’ income and tax credits for young families.

“During the debate, she was asked about a specific economic policy and I thought she avoided it and talked about her middle-class childhood. I want more specifics,” Meintze said. “I don’t know if she’s even presidential material.”

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Exclusive Harris-Trump poll shows VP holds small lead in Michigan