After JetBlue 'blow,' experts weigh in on future of Tallahassee International Airport

There wasn't much Tallahassee could have done to keep JetBlue Airways in the capital city, some aviation experts say.

The New York-based airlines announced it would be eliminating its in-state route from Tallahassee to Fort Lauderdale by late October, leaving residents shocked and disappointed since the airline had only been in town since January.

It comes down to demand. Tallahassee's sole flight, a daily early-morning leg, had an average of 60% to 65% daily occupancy rate from January to April, which aviation consultant Mike Boyd said was hardly enough to remain viable.

"Import another million people to the population base. That's about it," said Boyd, regarding what Tallahassee could have done to prevent the decision. "There's nothing (Tallahassee) could do. The issue is they were serving Fort Lauderdale, and they could barely fill much more than half of their airplanes. So it's logical (JetBlue) would go somewhere else."

Boyd is president of Boyd Group International, an aviation consulting and forecasting firm based in Colorado. His company, with more than 40 years experience, analyzes industry trends for airports and aircraft manufacturers throughout the country. He said Tallahassee's flight with JetBlue needed a minimum 80% occupancy rate.

And, despite some claims by city leaders, Boyd said finding another airline would be an uphill battle and talks of snagging one is an exercise in "civic hubris," adding "you've got to be realistic."

"Let me put a rainstorm on this parade. There aren't many airlines out there," Boyd said. "I hear this all the time, 'We'll find another airline,'" like there's this giant pool of airlines that exist. There aren't any others."

In his interview with the Tallahassee Democrat, he rattled off familiar names that already service Tallahassee: Delta Air Lines, American and United airlines. He also said Southwest Airlines was a longshot because Tallahassee doesn't have the population to support its numbers.

Like other airlines, JetBlue is challenged with rising costs

Tallahassee's flight service will be one of several impacted by JetBlue's decision to eliminate routes in communities throughout the country as the airline looked to cut costs.

The International Air Transport Association, a trade association representing airlines and aviation trends, issued a report last month that said industry expenses are expected to grow to $936 billion in 2024 (+9.4% on 2023).

Fuel is a large expense, representing 31% of an airline's operational expenses. Boyd said JetBlue, like other carriers, are facing "skyrocketing costs" that include labor and maintenance costs.

"Those are all going up in double digit percentages," he said. "So increasingly, they've got to put their airplanes where they can put the most people at the highest fare."

Still, JetBlue's arrival in Tallahassee sparked excitement and hope for more travel options, not to mention a means to reducing the volume of passengers who choose to fly out of cities like Jacksonville, Panama City and Orlando for cheaper fares. Some residents were thrilled to fly JetBlue out of Tallahassee; others said the sole JetBlue flight wasn't always ideal for their travel needs.

Loida Salicrup, who's lived in Wakulla County for more than 20 years, said she flies to Puerto Rico several times a year to visit her elderly parents.

"My choices are Delta or American for a decent price and not to drive to Orlando to pick a cheaper flight from JetBlue. I am a member of the perks from JetBlue but I couldn't used the points or credit card I have because the flights and the choices to fly to Puerto Rico from Fort Lauderdale were very limited."

She couldn't understand why a larger city, such as Orlando, wasn't selected as Tallahassee's first introduction to JetBlue since there are more international flight options compared to Fort Lauderdale.

"To me the JetBlue choice to (Fort Lauderdale) was economical suicide, and it's no surprise they failed in the end," Salicrup said.

Boyd said the economics of the aviation industry may preclude Tallahassee's wish list of flying to South Florida, adding "you're probably not going to have non-stop flight service to South Florida; end of discussion."

"That's hard for people to understand," said Boyd, who also applauded JetBlue as an airline carrier.

"This is not really a reflection on Tallahassee. Not at all," he added. "It has to do with an airline, a good airline by the way, they came in to try to make it work, to fill what they thought might be a need. And, there is a need, it's just not a big enough need to fill airplanes."

Former TLH airport director chimes in on JetBlue departure

Tallahassee spent more than a decade courting JetBlue. One person central to those earlier discussion was Chris Curry.

He was head of Tallahassee's airport from 2014 to 2017 and said JetBlue's announcement to leave Tallahassee was partly surprising and "some of it is not."

"Everything the airlines do these days is surprising," said Curry, who's now executive director of the Mobile Airport Authority in Mobile, Alabama. "Certainly with JetBlue in Tallahassee, a lot of the management from JetBlue that was in place that set up the service from Tallahassee to Fort Lauderdale is no longer there. And so airlines tend to go through different changes when they have different personnel."

Curry said JetBlue's imminent departure is a blow to Tallahassee's airport, adding "It's a blow whenever an airport, especially airports our size, lose air service."

He was instrumental in Tallahassee's push to attract JetBlue and, for years, led the charge with numerous conversations and visits to create a relationship. Landing JetBlue, he said, took considerable effort by many people.

"So to spend that much effort and time in attracting air service and losing it is always a blow, and it's quite unfortunate," Curry said. "But the airlines are constantly evolving. The environment is changing, and so you know you have to go with the best that you got, and hopefully your community responds in a way that allows them to stay and be profitable."

A seasonal service approach may have been a better fit for JetBlue, Curry added and said Tallahassee doesn't have enough students and state employees traveling to Fort Lauderdale year round.

In addition, should JetBlue ever take another chance on Tallahassee, Curry said the airline may need to downsize its Airbus A320 jet, which has a capacity of up to 170 seats, to a smaller plane that seats around 135 passengers.

"That could be a lot more effective for a smaller market like Tallahassee," Curry said.

TLH 200: Tallahassee's 110 years of aviation history fueled city's growth

New customs facility will be much-needed tool in Tallahassee's economic toolkit

While JetBlue's imminent exit is unfortunate, construction continues for Tallahassee's $28-million International Processing Facility that's slated to unlock international access for travelers and economic development.

According to city leaders, residents will be able to book non-stop flights overseas, including charter, business or general aviation flights. Some could include flights to the Caribbean, Central and South America and Canada, as previously reported in the Tallahassee Democrat.

Tallahassee City Manager Reese Goad said construction for the processing facility is slated to be completed by the end of the year or early 2025.

"It's in progress (and) on target, and so we'll have that in place," Goad said.

The International Processing Facility, which will include an on-site federal customs and immigration services office, will be the airport's next big step toward new economic heights. The addition is considered one of the key missing pieces in the airport's economic impact.

Boyd described Tallahassee's incoming customs facility as an "incredibly valuable" investment.

"If you've got business aviation that comes and goes, and if you don't have a processing station, they'll fly into someplace else," Boyd said. Yet, he also added, "It's not going to attract an international airline. You've got thousands of business jets and business travelers ... if they can fly in from London right to Tallahassee and go through all the processing there, that's a home run for Tallahassee."

Contact Economic Development Reporter TaMaryn Waters at [email protected] and follow @TaMarynWaters on X.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: After JetBlue exit, what's next for Tallahassee International Airport?