Hurricane season: NOAA makes highest storm forecast on record. What are chances SoFla impacted?
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center made its most aggressive early hurricane season forecast on record Thursday, joining other seasonal predictions in an unwavering and unnerving message that the Atlantic basin is ripe for tropical tumult.
The center is predicting 17 to 25 named storms, including eight to 13 hurricanes. Of the hurricanes, four to seven could be major Category 3 strength storms or higher. That is the most named storms the center has predicted in a May forecast since it began forecasts in 1999.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Of the seven hurricanes, three are Category 3 or higher.
Driving the center’s high numbers are record warm waters across the Atlantic basin’s stretch from Africa into the Caribbean, which are running nearly 4 degrees above normal in some areas.
“The extent of the marine heat has never been greater heading into hurricane season,” said Michael Lowry, a meteorologist with South Florida ABC affiliate Channel 10 in a column for Yale Climate Connections. “Although record-setting sea surface temperatures alone don’t guarantee a busy hurricane season, they do strongly influence it.”
Lowry noted that simmering water temps are widely outpacing what they were in May 2005, which had 28 named storms, including eight hurricanes and seven major hurricanes.
NOAA is confident this season, which begins June 1, will be especially fertile, giving it an 85% chance of being above normal, a 10% chance of being near-normal and only a 5% chance being below normal.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, who previously led the National Hurricane Center, tried to temper fervor about the forecast, noting that the use of "alarming" terminology can do more harm than good.
"We have a responsibility to keep everyone calm out there," Graham said. "Yes, it's the highest number of storms, but at the same time, let's bend it very quickly as a community to say this is about being prepared."
The second contributor to the widespread predictions for an above-average hurricane season is the demise of El Ni?o, which is expected to transition to a more hurricane friendly La Ni?a by peak hurricane season.
La Ni?a is a climate pattern that occurs when the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean cool. The ripple effect through the atmosphere reduces the wind shear in the Atlantic, giving budding storms room to grow.
“People ask what can change to make things better this season,” said Colorado State University senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach at the Governor’s Hurricane Conference in West Palm Beach this month. “Basically, a major volcanic eruption that will launch a bunch of aerosols into the atmosphere and knock down global temperatures.”
More: Storm season 2024: Experts at Governor's Hurricane Conference braced for active six months
Although NOAA doesn't predict where hurricanes will make landfall each season, Colorado State University started using a new method last year to determine the probability of a storm tracking within 50 miles of an area using NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website.
With its conspicuous peninsula dangling into the overheated Atlantic, Florida has the highest vulnerability in the United States with a 96% chance this year that it will be impacted by a named storm, according to CSU. There is a 75% chance for a hurricane and a 44% chance that a major hurricane will reach Sunshine State shores.
The top counties in Florida most likely to have impacts from a named storm this season are Monroe (71%) and Miami-Dade (62%). Brevard, Broward, Collier and Palm Beach counties all have a 61% chance of seeing the effects of a named storm.
And that’s a concern considering the high number of new residents who relocated to South Florida during and after the pandemic. Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties have seen a population surge since 2020 of 137,000 new residents, according to an April report by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Susan Cohen and her husband bought a house in Jupiter this year and will spend part of their time there and part in Ohio.
“I am nervous about hurricanes because they seem to be getting stronger and bigger geographically, which I’m sure makes it more difficult for FEMA to respond,” Cohen said.
More: 2024 hurricane season: Florida Emergency Manager Kevin Guthrie pledges better communication
While they were careful to buy a newer home several miles inland with hurricane impact windows, they’re still learning about whether they are in an evacuation zone and what supplies they’ll need if a storm threatens.
“My strategy is just to educate myself as opposed to saying, ‘I’m not coming to Florida,’ because there are so many other benefits,” Cohen said.
Since 2000, nine hurricanes have tracked within 100 miles of West Palm Beach. The most recent include hurricanes Nicole and Ian in 2022, Hurricane Dorian in 2019, 2017's Hurricane Irma and 2016's Hurricane Matthew. Others include Wilma (2005), Katrina (2005), Jeanne (2004) and Frances (2004).
Following Florida, the top five states most vulnerable to named storms this season are North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Texas and Alabama.
Register for the Palm Beach Post's 2024 Storm Season Preparation forum
The 2024 hurricane season is forecast to be one of the most active on record with most predictions calling for more than 20 named storms. To help our communities get prepared, The Palm Beach Post is hosting a forum on storm readiness Wednesday, June 5, from 6:15 to 8:30 p.m. at Palm Beach State College's Lake Worth Beach campus. To attend, please scan the QR Code to register or click this link.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: NOAA 2024 hurricane forecast is for an active hurricane season
