As Hurricane Milton Nears Landfall, Mass Tornado Warnings Hit Florida
Powering through the Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds as heavy as 145 mph, Hurricane Milton formed a string of reported tornadoes in Southwest Florida Wednesday—a troubling omen for supply chains and overall public safety in the state as millions of residents have been urged to evacuate.
The National Hurricane Center warned in an 11 a.m. advisory, “The time to prepare, including evacuate if told to do so, is quickly coming to an end.” As of 3 p.m., the National Weather Service branches covering Tampa Bat, Miami and Melbourne have issued 53 total tornado warnings.
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The storm is expected to make landfall late Wednesday night on Florida’s central west coast as a Category 4 hurricane, with its highest storm surge expected to exceed 10 feet. As of 2 p.m., maximum sustained winds are 130 mph, with rainfall expected to range between six and 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches.
The Port of Jacksonville (Jaxport) followed in Port Tampa Bay’s footsteps by shuttering operations entirely on Wednesday, as more preparations are made for the storm. Jaxport plans to reopen main gates Monday.
As of Tuesday, there were 74 container vessels near the path of Hurricane Milton, according to data from supply chain visibility tech provider Project44. With these ships inevitably moving out of the danger area, shipping delays can be expected in the eastern part of the Gulf.
FedEx Freight is offering no service to 1,227 ZIP codes in Florida, while 80 FedEx Office stores have been closed. FedEx Ground still offers limited service in 474 ZIP codes, with another 356 ZIP codes offering no service. FedEx Express is still operating on a limited basis in 326 ZIP codes, but is no longer offered in 840 ZIP codes. As expected, delays and disruptions are possible for inbound and outbound shipments in markets along the west coast of Florida.
UPS also said “some delays are possible” and that the services in the southern U.S., specifically Florida, may be impacted by Milton.
The trucking and delivery sectors are likely to see massive service disruptions that delay shipments once Milton passes, if the fallout from Hurricane Helene is any indicator.
Truckload shipments will endure hurricane-related roadblocks and flooding, especially as some areas are still recovering from Helene, which made landfall less than two weeks ago on Sept. 27.
Across the southeast, on-time truckload performance rates are beginning to recover from the damage caused by Helene, but it is likely to dip again as Milton approaches landfall.
Florida will see a decline in truckload performance as it is expected to bear the brunt of Hurricane Milton. Operating at a lower-than-normal level of 72 percent on Monday, Project44 expects to see a decrease similar to or greater than the 7 percent drop experienced in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
Inbound shipments to warehouses are most susceptible to service disruptions, evidenced by the 11 percent drop in performance level due to Helene. Outbound shipments to consumers and retailers also saw a 7 percent decrease.
This decline is expected to be even greater for both inbound and outbound shipments due to the mass evacuations, which contribute to traffic congestion and reduce the available labor force in impacted areas.
Fuel has been a major concern as more residents flee the area and logistics companies prepare their storm response.
GasBuddy’s fuel availability tracker says that as of 2:43 p.m. Wednesday, 24.3 percent of Florida’s 7,915 gas stations were without fuel. The highest proportion without fuel is Tampa-St. Petersburg at 62.3 percent, with Sarasota at 43.7 percent. Gas stations at Fort Myers-Naples are also concerning, at 36.6 percent without fuel.
With no refineries in the state, Florida is dependent on waterborne imports. Port Tampa Bay’s closure would be a huge hit to the state’s fuel distribution and capacity, since supplies for much of Florida, especially central Florida, arrive from Texas and Louisiana through the hub.
More than 17 million tons of petroleum- and natural gas-related products move through Tampa Bay in a typical year, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Wells Fargo set a wide range for potential damage from Hurricane Milton, setting it at $10 billion to $100 billion. Another investment firm, Jeffries, went on the high end for the Tampa area alone, saying losses would amount to $175 billion.