Hurricane Helene aftermath poses election hurdles in critical battlegrounds

Hurricane Helene has thrown up new hurdles for voters and election officials alike in Georgia and North Carolina, threatening disruptions to the voting process in two of the most critical battleground states.

Flooding, stormy conditions and power outages have displaced residents, interrupted postal services and impacted election offices across the Southeast. The fallout could complicate early and mail voting in some places and demoralize voters from casting their ballots.

Helene “creates unexpected, substantial new barriers to voting,” said Michael Morley, a law professor at Florida State University who has studied elections in the wake of natural disasters and other emergencies.

“It imposes a lot more unexpected burdens on election officials, puts more strain on the election administration system, and it requires election officials to take emergency steps [to] mitigate the impact of the hurricane on both the election as a whole, and more specifically, on people’s ability to participate in the election,” Morley said.

Helene battered the Southeast last week with heavy rains, winds and flooding. The storm has killed more than 200 people, The Associated Press reported Friday, and roughly half the victims are said to be in North Carolina. Many residents were still without water and electricity this week, and rescue crews were still helping people stranded or missing in the wreckage.

“The destruction is unprecedented and this level of uncertainty this close to Election Day is daunting,” Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, said in a press conference Tuesday, calling the storm’s impact on the western Tar Heel State “like nothing we’ve seen in our lifetimes.”

Roughly 17 percent of North Carolina’s registered voters are in the disaster areas declared late last month by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), or nearly 1.3 million voters, according to data compiled by Michael Bitzer, a politics and history professor at Catawba College in the state.

“It is going to be a monumental task to try and implement an election in [a] quarter of North Carolina’s counties,” Bitzer said. “We’re into crunch time when it comes to holding an election and how this will be pulled off will take a Herculean effort.”

Multiple election offices in the disaster area were still closed as of Thursday morning, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections. It’s also possible that some absentee ballots that were in the mail when the hurricane hit have been lost or damaged, while the Oct. 11 voter registration deadline looms.

But North Carolina election officials are projecting confidence in the face of the crisis. The state fully intends for all counties to begin early voting as scheduled on Oct. 17, the state board’s public information director Pat Gannon told The Hill, though some inaccessible or damaged sites may have to be moved or consolidated.

Voters can contact their local office to check the status of their ballot, Gannon said. And if a ballot looks like it’s been lost, North Carolinians can ask for it to be reissued, and state election systems will ensure only the one is counted. Individual counties are also assessing poll worker needs amid displacements, and the office is making plans to fill in any gaps.

“If nothing else, the counties and their boards of elections and their election officials and workers are going to do their utmost because they know that it’s dependent on them to make sure that the voters’ voices are heard,” Bitzer said, though he said it may take “some potential creativity” over the coming weeks.

Over in Georgia, more than two dozen deaths have been attributed to the storm, according to Savannah Morning News. Some rural communities near the Florida-Georgia line have been hit hard, and rebuilding efforts may take longer than in other, more urban areas.

The Georgia secretary of state’s office started working before the storm landed to prepare for potential disruptions, and preparations remain on schedule, communications director Robert Sinners told The Hill. Early voting is set to kick off in the Peach State on Oct. 15.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said this week that no election offices have suffered long-term damage, and that his office was working to make sure election workers are safe and equipment is functional.

“We have to let the first responders finish doing their jobs, but as power is restored and voting locations can be assessed, we will make sure that the upcoming election is safe, secure and convenient for all Georgia voters,” Raffensperger said.

But even if the states’ election systems can weather the storm, Helene could hamper voters on the way to casting their ballots. For some, wrecked roadways and homes mean physical barriers — while others simply may not have time to think about the election as they grapple with the fallout.

In Georgia, for example, the voter registration deadline is this coming Monday, Oct. 7 — and checking that off the to-do list isn’t likely to be top of mind for Americans struggling with Helene’s destruction, said Georgia State University policy and politics professor Tammy Greer.

At the same time, some say the crisis could actually motivate voters in the affected states and elsewhere.

“The underlying thought, when we consider the damage, the recovery, food, water, shelter — comes down to your elected officials,” Greer said. “So while the voting or registering to vote … it may not be top-line, yet it is the through-current. It is that thread all the way through the response to the hurricane to how long the recovery is going to take.”

Though Helene has wrought unique devastation, Election Day “is always during hurricane season” in the South, Greer noted. She stressed that the systems are strong and that, if affected voters want to cast their ballots, they’ll be able to make their voices heard, albeit with some new hurdles.

North Carolina and Georgia are both critical battlegrounds in a competitive contest between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, and observers say Helene’s disruptions could roil the razor-tight race.

The latest polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill show Trump is up by just a fraction of a percentage point in both states. In Florida, a state Democrats have grown optimistic about flipping and has also borne Helene’s impacts, Trump is up 2 percentage points.

Both North Carolina and Georgia could be decided by a small number of voters, meaning any obstacles keeping voters from the polls could potentially tip the scales. Trump won both states in 2016, then North Carolina in 2020, while President Biden eked out a win in Georgia.

One of the areas hit hardest by the storm is Asheville, N.C., a Democratic stronghold, but the data suggests registered unaffiliated and Republican voters dominate the Helene-affected counties in the state.

John Gasper, an associate teaching professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, said incumbents can sometimes be “punished at the ballot box” for issues outside of their control when catastrophe hits. But disasters broadly can serve as “good, exogenous tests of leadership” for politicians and officials alike, Gasper said, and a strong response can sometimes mean they’re “rewarded” at the ballot box instead.

Both Trump and Harris have made visits to the Southeast in recent days, as has President Biden. The White House has provided $45 million in aid and deployed thousands of personnel to help with recovery.

“The election is just one aspect of the recovery process. Efforts to restore electricity, save human life, obviously, are just as important, if not more important in the immediate aftermath,” Morley said.

This story was first published on Oct 5, 2024 at 5pm.

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