Harris sees betting odds shrink over Trump to razor-thin margin less than a month before the election
Kamala Harris has seen her betting odds shrink over Donald Trump to a razor-thin margin with less than a month to go before November’s election.
The vice president’s lead over the former president has significantly narrowed to a single point as bets surge in favor of Trump, according to the Election Betting Odds tracker.
Bookmakers now give Harris a 50.1 percent chance of winning the race for the White House, while Trump is close behind on 49.1 percent.
Last week, Harris was leading by 3.5 points.
The tracker works by consolidating betting numbers from five major markets – Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi.
Out of the five bookies, crypto-based betting platform Polymarket has given Trump’s odds of winning a boost, predicting he is now the slight favorite at 51.1 percent to Harris’s 48.3 percent.
The platform has also increased Trump’s odds of winning the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. Bookmakers give him a 55.5 percent chance of victory in the state compared to a 49 percent chance last week.
Other bookmakers give Harris a slight lead over Trump. On Kalshi, bookies put Harris ahead at 51 percent compared to Trump’s 49 percent. On PredictIt, the VP has 54 cents per share, which roughly equates to a 54 percent chance of winning, compared to 50 cents per share for Trump.
And, the British betting site Smarkets predicts Harris has a 50.5 percent chance of taking the White House compared to Trump, whose odds are 48 percent.
The polls, meanwhile, are incredibly close. The vice president currently has a 2.7-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight.
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks. In the key battleground states, the polls are almost neck-and-neck.
Harris is ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania – but only just, according to the New York Times. Trump, meanwhile, has narrow leads in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
In better news for Harris, Trump’s lead in his home state of Florida has dwindled, putting it in play for the vice president, a poll suggests.
The former president now leads Harris by just two percentage points in the Sunshine State, home to his Mar-a-Lago residence, according to a Thursday survey by Napolitan News Service conducted by RMG Research, which has historically favored Republicans.
There appears to be a stark age divide in the poll’s findings. While Harris has a stark lead among young Floridians, with 55 per cent of those polled supporting the Democratic presidential nominee to just 43 per cent supporting Trump, the former president leads significantly with the older crowd.
More than half (53 per cent) of those aged 65 and older expressed backing Trump compared to 44 percent backing Harris.