Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania, new CNN polls show

WASHINGTON ― Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Republican rival Donald Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, and is tied with the former president in Pennsylvania, according to new CNN polls of the three so-called "blue wall" Rust Belt states that could decide next week's election.

In Michigan, Harris leads Trump 48%-43% among the state's likely voters, while Harris is ahead of the former president 51%-45% in Wisconsin, the polls released Wednesday found. Both leads are outside the surveys' margins of errors. Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania at 48% apiece, a third CNN poll found.

The polls were conducted Oct. 23 to 28. The Pennsylvania and Michigan polls have margins of errors of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and the Wisconsin poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

In an election defined by a historically wide gender gap, the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania polls found Harris faring better among women voters and Trump among male voters. Harris leads Wisconsin's likely women voters 59%-38%, and Trump leads Wisconsin's likely male voters 53%-41, the poll found. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads women voters 49%-46%, while Trump leads male voters 50%-46%

But in Michigan, CNN found Harris and Trump tied with male voters at 44%, while Harris leads among female voters in the state 49%-41%.

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In all three states, Harris polled better than Trump on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy: a 7-point advantage in Pennsylvania, a 16-point advantage in Michigan and a 17-point edge in Wisconsin.

Trump is seen as the better candidate to handle the economy, but by narrower margins than much of the race: a 3-point advantage in Wisconsin, a 4-point edge for Trump in Michigan and an 8-point edge in Pennsylvania.

Independent presidential candidate Robert. F. Kennedy, who dropped out of the race in August to endorse Trump, remains on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan. The CNN polls found he has support from 3% of likely voters in Michigan and 1% in Wisconsin.

A pair of polls from USA TODAY/Suffolk University this week found Trump in a stronger "blue wall" position than the CNN polls: leading Harris 48%-47% in Wisconsin and tied with Harris at 47% in Michigan.

More: Gender war: Historic gap between men and women defines Harris v. Trump

What is the blue wall?

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan ? each carried by President Joe Biden in 2020 ? have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates sweeping all three. Trump flipped the three "blue wall" states to the Republican column in 2016 en route to his defeat over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

If Harris carries all three "blue wall" states in the Nov. 5 election, then she would likely secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency even if she loses the four other battleground states ? North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That's assuming Harris wins Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, where she is polling ahead, and all other states she is heavily favored to win.

For Trump, a victory in any of the "blue wall" states ? particularly Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground ? would open a path for him to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes by pairing that win with victories in the Sun Belt states, where he is polling stronger.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly on Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania: new polls