What happens if Democrats flip the House? What it would mean for Donald Trump's second term

WASHINGTON – Republicans appear poised to retain the House, cementing full GOP control of Capitol Hill for the next two years as President-elect Donald Trump returns to Washington.

It's still possible for Democrats to flip the 435-seat chamber if they clinch victory in outstanding races in districts in California, Arizona and Oregon. But the GOP holds the edge.

Democrats initially did well by catapulting a handful of New York Republicans in suburban areas out of office. Those gains were offset, however, by the the GOP flipping seats held by Democrats in Michigan and Pennsylvania, coming as Vice President Kamala Harris saw pivotal losses in the swing states.

As of Sunday morning, a count by the Associated Press showed Democrats at 202 seats while Republicans claimed 212, meaning the GOP only needs to win six more seats to hold the narrowest of majorities in the lower chamber whereas Democrats need 16.

House Democrats have urged patience as the results trickle in among these states, while House Republicans have expressed optimism that the final districts will break their way.

"We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next speaker should Democrats prevail, said in a Nov. 7 statement.

The lack of a result almost a week after Election Day is frustrating some Republican lawmakers. They have claimed without evidence that states were "slow walking" results.

"Every congressional district has roughly the same number of voters," Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., said on X, formerly Twitter.

"So there is absolutely no excuse for Arizona and California slow walking counting ballots over the course of weeks after the election has ended. I knew the results of my election a few hours – not weeks – after the polls closed."

States follow varying procedures for counting ballots after Election Day, and some states rely more on mail-in ballots and other voting options. It's not evidence that anything has gone wrong in races.

But what would happen if Democrats narrowly take the House instead of Republicans? What would it potentially mean for Trump's second term? Here's what you need to know.

From mass deportations to corporate tax cuts: Trump's agenda on the line

Which side prevails will be the difference between a House that advances Trump's agenda or one that stymies him at every turn.

With a GOP House majority, Trump, his agenda and the priorities of his conservative allies would have a much easier time in Washington. But if Democrats retake the chamber, they're likely to argue voters want some check on Republicans.

The president-elect's largest stated goal is immigration and border security. That includes hardline initiatives such as a 2024 campaign promise to begin the "largest deportation effort in American history" of undocumented immigrants.

Paying for such an exertion of federal resources — Trump has said the price tag is "not a question" — would have to go through the House, for example. While Democrats have expressed an appetite for immigration reform, Trump's signature campaign promise wouldn't make it through the lower chamber if the left is in control.

But House Democrats wouldn't just fight Trump on his immigration policies. Without a House majority, Trump would be forced to negotiate with Jeffries and Democrats on must-pass legislation like the spending bills that keep the government's doors open and stave off catastrophic shutdowns.

These are moments that already produce high drama showdowns, even when Republicans hold a majority in the lower chamber. After all, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by some of his fellow Republicans over his willingness to work with Democrats to dodge a shutdown.

But the temperature would climb even higher if Democrats control one chamber against a Republican White House and Senate.

For example, Trump's $1.5 trillion tax cuts that were passed in 2017 are set to expire next year. Whether they are continued or not, and what form national tax policy looks like, will be determined largely by who wins the House majority. While there was some bipartisan consensus on initiatives like cutting federal taxes on tips (Trump and Harris both supported the move) the president-elect's pitch to cut the corporate tax rate would depend on the balance of power in the House.

Any hardline conservative domestic policy ideas, however, such as repealing the Affordable Care Act, codifying further restrictions on abortion access, scrapping climate change regulations or cutting federal funding for schools using curriculum conservative activists have opposed on race, gender identity and U.S. history, would be impossible to pass Congress unless Republicans hold into their lead in the race to control the House.

After a bitter loss at the presidential level, Democrats potentially represent the only hurdle for Trump, and they would have little reason to work with him on substantive legislation as far as their progressive base would be concerned.

Investigations and impeachments

Another area where Trump, already twice impeached, would prefer to avoid a Democratic House is with the various investigative powers it wields.

In addition to deciding which bills actually get a vote, the majority party in Congress also controls the committees that can investigate presidents of the opposing party and their allies. In the House, that often includes inquiries that create headaches for the sitting administration, even if they don't result in substantive changes.

For example, the House Oversight Committee and the House Judiciary Committee under the leadership of Reps. James Comer, R-Ky., and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, spent months investigating President Joe Biden for evidence of corruption or abuse of power, though they eventually found no evidence of wrongdoing and did not recommend articles of impeachment against the president.

But would Democrats quickly launch their own inquiries after the new Congress takes office in January? Jeffries, for his part, told NY1 on Thursday that his party will work to "find bipartisan common ground whenever and wherever possible with the new administration, but also being very clear that we will push back against MAGA extremism whenever necessary."

Trump is already the only president in U.S. history to have been impeached twice. A phone call between Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2019 ? in which Trump threatened to withhold U.S. aid to Ukraine if he didn't investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden ? led to Trump's first impeachment.

The lower chamber also eventually approved articles of impeachment against Trump shortly before his term ended in the wake of the Capitol riot, though the Senate acquitted him in both cases.

Should Republicans keep the House, you could envision a continuation of probes into the origins of COVID-19, but also other investigations into the outgoing Biden administration's past actions, such as the prosecution of rioters involved in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.

During the campaign, Trump was open about going after political opponents and calling for their prosecution, which would be much easier to do if the House was in his party's hands. While Trump and his supporters have also said that any successes in office would ultimately be his revenge, other allies have left the door open the door to legal ramifications.

"President Trump will not use the DOJ for political purposes, that is to go after individuals simply because they are political opponents," Mark Paoletta, who served as lawyer in the first Trump administration, said in a Nov. 7 post on X.

"But just because you are a political opponent," he added, "does not give you get a free pass if you have violated the law."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What's at stake for the GOP to keep the House for Trump's second term