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Your guide to the most interesting — and consequential — races in all 50 states
Election Day will be about more than just Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Though the presidential election is commanding the most attention, a host of down-ballot races across the country will determine control of Congress, the direction of state legislatures and major policy battles on issues such as abortion rights and marijuana.
House races in states like Arizona, Alaska and California will determine control of the control of the 435-seat House, where Democrats seek to upend the current 220-212 GOP majority. Likewise, Democrats currently control the Senate but only by a razor-thin margin. Which party will gain control of the upper chamber?
But there are other, less high profile but still important races on the Nov. 5 ballot. Voters will get to decide on ranked choice voting in multiple states and in Maine voters will decide whether to change their state flag for the first time in a century.
Here is our guide to some of the most consequential — and interesting — races in all 50 states.
— Melissa Brown and Duane W. Gang, USA TODAY NETWORK
Learn more about the races
Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Georgia | Hawaii | Idaho | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Hampshire | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | South Dakota | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming |
Alabama
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Republican Caroleene Dobson, Democrat Shomari Figures
What's at stake: Alabama’s congressional map was redrawn in 2023 after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the proposed Alabama congressional district map was gerrymandered, discriminating against Black voters in the case of Allen v. Milligan. While the state initially refused to redraw the map, defying a federal court order, a new map was eventually drawn. This allowed for another nearly majority Black district in Alabama and set the stage for the competitive primaries as a minority opportunity district. The winner of this race will be the first person to represent the new district. If Figures wins, Alabama will have two Democrats in the House for the first time since 2008 when it had three Democratic representatives.
The race: 7th Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Terri Sewell, Incumbent, Republican Robin Litaker
What's at stake: Sewell is currently the only Democratic member of Congress from Alabama. If unseated, all nine of Alabama’s Congress members could be Republicans, depending on the outcome of the closely watched race in the 2nd Congressional District. It would also be the first time District 7 has ever been represented by a Republican.
— Victor Hagan, USA TODAY NETWORK
Alaska
The race: U.S. House
Who is running: Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, Democrat Eric Hafner, Republican Nicholas Begich and independent John Howe.
What's at stake: Holding onto Alaska’s sole House seat is key to Democrats regaining control of the House. Peltola narrowly won in 2022, defeating former Gov. Sarah Palin, becoming the first Democrat from the state elected to the House since 1972. The state’s rank choice voting system advances the top four primary candidates and places them in the general election, regardless of party. Hafner, who’s a New Jersey resident, is currently serving a 20-year sentence for making false bomb threats over the phone and threatening judges, police officers and lawyers, pleading guilty to the crimes in 2022. He’s previously ran for office outside of his home state, running in Hawaii in 2016 as a Republican and in Oregon in 2018 as a Democrat.
The race: Ballot Measure 1
What's on the ballot: Increase the state's minimum wage to $15 per hour and require employers to provide earned paid sick leave for employees.
What's at stake: If passed, Alaska will become the 8th state (not including Washington D.C.) to install a $15 or higher minimum wage.
The race: Ballot Measure 2
What's on the ballot: Repeal the top-four ranked-choice voting system that was adopted in 2020
What's at stake: If repealed, the state will resume traditional voting. There are currently four other states, Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, and Oregon, with rank choice related measures their ballots this election.
— Victor Hagan, USA TODAY NETWORK
Arizona
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Republican Kari Lake, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona
What's at stake: It’s one of the marquee races across the country that could help determine which party will control the chamber. Lake appears to have gained ground on Gallego, but he has held an advantage in the polls since the outset of the race. The seat is now held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who announced in March she would not seek a second term.
The race: Proposition 139 – Arizona Abortion Access Act
What's on the ballot: A measure to protect abortion rights
What's at stake: This measure would create a fundamental right to abortion under the Arizona Constitution. If passed by voters, the state will not be able to interfere before fetal viability unless it has a compelling reason and does so in the least restrictive way possible. Polling shows strong support for the measure.
The race: 1st Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Republican David Schweikert, Democrat Amish Shah
What's at stake: David Schweikert, a seven-term member of Congress, is locked in a tight race with emergency room physician Amish Shah, a former state lawmaker, in Arizona’s most affluent congressional district. Schweikert is a free-market Republican; Shah is a “practical” Democrat who won a crowded six-way primary. The race is rated a toss-up.
The race: 6thCongressional District
Who’s running: Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani, Democrat Kirsten Engel
What's at stake: In a rematch from 2022, Ciscomani faces Engel, an environmental lawyer and former state lawmaker whom he defeated by less than 2% of the vote. He is a free-market Republican and served as an aide to former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey. The race is rated a toss-up. Arizona’s congressional delegation is now 6-3 Republican, so flipping both seats could flip the delegation to the Democrats.
— Arizona Republic, USA TODAY NETWORK
Arkansas
The race: Arkansas Supreme Court Chief Justice
Who is running: Arkansas Supreme Court Justices Karen R. Baker and Rhonda Wood are competing for the position of chief justice in a runoff election.
What's at stake: While the outcome of this race won’t likely affect the ideological breakdown on the seven-member court, it could serve as a symbolic referendum on the two justices who have diametrically opposed views on a number of issues, notably around direct democracy. Both justices recently took strong stances on Secretary of State John Thurston’s disqualification of a ballot measure that if approved would have guaranteed a limited right to abortion in the state Constitution. Wood wrote the majority opinion in the controversial decision to uphold Thurston’s rejection of the measure, while Baker wrote a scathing dissent.
The race: Arkansas House District 62
Who is running: In House District 62, Dexter Miller, a tech worker at the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, is challenging Republican Mark McElroy, a moderate Republican who’s served on and off in the legislature since 2012, also having run as a Democrat and an independent.
What’s at stake: Miller ran against McElroy in 2022, losing by less than 200 votes. If 2024’s rematch is nearly as close this time around, the race could be an opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a district in eastern Arkansas, contiguous with the blue counties around West Memphis. Arkansas Democrats are mounting a big push to challenge Republican incumbents in the state legislature and in Congress, many of whom have run unopposed for years.
The race: Arkansas House District 56
Who is running: Conway eye doctor Steve Magie, an incumbent Democrat, is defending his state House seat against conservative Republican Kim Slaughter, the owner and operator of a miniature golf course.
What’s at stake: If the results of the 2022 elections are any indication, Magie might be one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the Arkansas General Assembly. He won by only 10 votes while running for his seventh term representing District 56, outside of Little Rock, in the last election. Republicans in the Arkansas House command an 82-seat supermajority in the 100-person chamber. Picking up a handful of seats could allow the state’s Democrats to gain some leverage, since spending bills require a three-quarters vote. But this will be challenging without holding onto seats like Magie’s.
The race: Arkansas House District 24
Who is running: Moderate Democrat Ryan Intchauspe, an employee for a training contractor that works with the Dept. of Transportation, is running against conservative Republican Brad Hall, a rancher.
What’s at stake: This matchup is part of a trend of Arkansas Democrats running for seats which have been solidly Republican for years and where a blue win might be a long shot. Outgoing incumbent Republican Charlene Fite ran unopposed in 2022. In 2020, before redistricting, she won in the equivalent district by close to 40 percentage points in a three-way race, and in 2018 by almost 45%. Intchauspe, a relatively conservative Democrat with some talking points that could appeal to Libertarian-leaning voters, as well as a military service record, might be a good indicator of whether districts like this are necessarily as safe for Republicans as they appear.
— George Russell, USA TODAY NETWORK
California
The race: 13th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican incumbent and freshman Rep. John Duarte is hoping to keep hold of his seat in this rural swing district, facing his 2022 challenger, Democrat Adam Gray, a second time.
What’s at stake: The rematch is one of five highly competitive House races in California, all of which forecasters say will help decide which party is in the majority next year. They’re also all held by Republicans, despite the state’s overwhelming Democratic majority, making them rare purple races in a state not known for dramatic election face-offs. The 13th district is among the tightest of those five, and with Gray and Duarte facing off again, it’s expected results will be razor-thin. Just two years ago, Duarte won by fewer than 600 votes, the second-slimmest margin in the nation.
The race: 27th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia is defending his seat from Democrat George Whitesides, a deep-pocketed political newcomer and who once headed space-tourism company Virgin Galactic.
What’s at stake: In this Northern Los Angeles County district, Garcia picked up the seat in 2020 in a special election and has held on to through the general election and 2022 midterm. But all those prior victories were against Democrat Christy Smith, a former state assemblywoman. With a new Democrat in the mix in Whitesides, the race could see an upset. It’s one of the five most competitive races in California this year, all of which have Republican incumbents representing areas that went to Biden in 2020. Garcia’s record could present challenges in deep-blue California. A staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, he is one of a few California Republicans who voted against certifying election results Jan. 6, 2021, and signed a 2021 amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs. Wade.
The race: 41st Congressional District
Who is running: Rep. Ken Calvert, who has been in Congress for nearly three decades, is up against Democratic upstart Will Rollins. It’s a rematch, as former federal prosecutor Rollins attempts to grab the seat again after his 2022 defeat.
What’s at stake: Whereas most of California's toss-up House races feature relative newcomers who assumed office within the last few years, Calvert is one of the state’s longest-serving representatives. Calvert won against Rollins in 2022 by less than 5 percentage points, and the Democratic challenger boasts a much larger war chest this time around. The race has attracted much attention and cash, making it the most expensive House race in the state as of early October. Polling roughly a month out from Nov. 5 has the pair at a dead heat. While Calvert has defended his seat many times over, this second match-up against Rollins is increasingly competitive, especially as 2021 redistricting looped in more liberal areas like Palm Springs.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Colorado
The race: 4th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, Democrat Trisha Calvarese and three third-party candidates: Paul Noel Fiorino, Unity; Frank Atwood, Approval Voting; and Hannah Goodman, Libertarian
What’s at stake: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert has been a U.S. House member since 2021, but in a different district: the 3rd Congressional District that covers western Colorado. She decided to run in the 4th Congressional District last year after longtime Republican Rep. Ken Buck announced he wouldn’t be seeking a sixth term, saying many within his Republican Party have strayed from its ideals and are no longer addressing solutions. If Boebert is not elected, it will shift the representation of a portion of Colorado that has long been represented by a Republican and will represent a significant shift in the political makeup of Colorado's representation.
The race: Proposition 127
What’s on the ballot: A measure regarding the hunting of mountain lions, bobcats and lynx
What's at stake: Citizen-initiated Proposition 127 seeks to make it illegal to hunt bobcats, lynx and mountain lions in Colorado, though it’s important to note that it’s already illegal to hunt lynx under state and federal law. With appropriate licenses, the hunting of mountain lions has been allowed in Colorado since 1965. Hunting of bobcats in the state has been allowed even longer. Trophy hunting mountain lions is illegal in the state. By law, mountain lion meat must be prepared for human consumption. Bobcats are considered furbearers, so you do not have to eat their meat under state hunting laws. This initiative would allow bobcats, lynx and mountain lions to be killed if they are deemed a threat to human life, livestock or property.
The race: Poudre School District R-1 Ballot Issue 4A
What’s on the ballot: A local measure on levy for schools
Why it matters: This local ballot issue represents a critical crossroads school districts face as they grapple with school funding woes and aging facilities: Do they cut services, ask for help or do both? And if they do ask for help, will they get it? Poudre School District is asking voters to approve a debt-free mill levy to support a wide range of wants and needs, including repairs, maintenance and capital improvements to school facilities.
— Kelly Lyell, Miles Blumhardt, Rebecca Powell and Sarah Kyle, The Coloradoan
Connecticut
The race: 5th Congressional District
Who is running: Democratic incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes is seeking a fourth term against Republican challenger George Logan in a highly anticipated rematch. Logan, a former state senator, narrowly lost to Hayes in 2022.
What’s at stake: The 5th District is a key swing seat and the outcome could help decide which party controls the U.S. House. Both candidates are focused on economic issues, but their approaches differ. Hayes backs more federal funding for affordable housing and wage increases, while Logan advocates for reducing government spending. Other major topics include immigration reform and abortion rights, with Hayes supporting federal protections for abortion access and Logan opposing them.
The race: No-Excuse Absentee Voting Amendment
What’s on the ballot: Connecticut voters will decide on the No-Excuse Absentee Voting Amendment. A "yes" vote would allow any voter to request a mail-in ballot without providing a reason. A "no" vote keeps the current rules, which require voters to give an excuse, like being out of town or having a disability.
What's at stake: If passed, this amendment would make voting more accessible by expanding the use of mail-in ballots. Supporters say it’s the next step in ensuring all voters have the flexibility to cast their ballot. Opponents worry about the potential for misuse and prefer keeping in-person voting as the primary method. With many states already allowing no-excuse absentee voting, this decision could reshape how elections are conducted in Connecticut.
The race: Key state legislative races
Who is running: Connecticut's state legislature expects to see several highly competitive races. In the 8th Senate District, incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Seminara faces Democrat Paul Honig, who seeks to flip the seat held by Republicans since 1967. The 28th Senate District features Republican Sen. Tony Hwang challenged by newcomer Rob Blanchard, a Democrat, testing the suburbs' political leanings. In the 36th Senate District, Republican Sen. Ryan Fazio contends with Democrat Nick Simmons, a former deputy chief of staff for Gov. Ned Lamont. The 22nd House District showcases Republican Rep. Francis Cooley battling Democrat Rebecca Martinez, who aims to reclaim her seat after a narrow loss. The 65th House District sees Democrat Rep. Michelle Cook go against Republican Joe Canino. In the 81st House District, Democrat Rep. Chris Poulos is up against Republican James Morelli. Lastly, in the 138th House District, Republican Rep. Rachel Chaleski battles Democrat Ken Gucker, who seeks to reclaim his former seat.
What’s at stake: These races could reshape Connecticut's political landscape as demographics shift and voter turnout spikes during the presidential election. With several traditionally GOP districts in play, the outcomes will determine whether Connecticut leans further left or sees a Republican resurgence.
— Jeremy Yurow, USA TODAY NETWORK
Delaware
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Current U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester faces Republican Eric Hansen and independent Dr. Mike Katz. Hansen is a Wilmington resident and businessman, while Katz is an anesthesiologist and former Delaware state senator.
What’s at stake: Both of Delaware’s seats in the U.S. Senate have been held by Democrats since 2001, so a win by Hansen or Katz, while unlikely, would be a major upset. Katz specifically would be the state’s first independent U.S. Senator. If Blunt Rochester is elected, she would be the first Black Delawarean and the first woman to represent The First State in the U.S. Senate – and possibly the third Black woman ever in the country’s history.
The race: U.S. House
Who is running: Democratic state Sen. Sarah McBride faces Republican political newcomer John Whalen III, a retired state police officer.
What’s at stake: Delaware’s sole House seat is up for grabs without an incumbent in the race for the first time since Lisa Blunt Rochester, now running for Senate, was elected in 2016. A Republican hasn’t held the seat since 2011, and the odds appear to be against Whalen. If McBride wins the race, she will be the first transgender person elected to federal office, as well as the youngest elected official Delaware has sent to Washington since President Joe Biden’s U.S. Senate win in 1972.
The race: Governor
Who is running: New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer won the Democratic nomination after a tight primary race with the current lieutenant governor. He faces Delaware House Minority Leader Mike Ramone.
What’s at stake: Democrats have held the governor’s office in Delaware since 1993, with current Gov. John Carney – now running uncontested for mayor of Wilmington – winning his last election with nearly 60% of votes. Ramone, who has held a seat in the statehouse since 2008, is running on a platform of bipartisan leadership to challenge the state’s “single-party rule.”
— The News Journal, USA TODAY NETWORK
Florida
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is seeking a second six-year term against former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democrat who served just one term in Congress before being defeated by U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Miami.
What's at stake: At stake is a seat that could decide which party controls the upper chamber, with the power to approve or block appointments to the judicial branch in the next administration. Each has harshly criticized the other on perceived vulnerabilities heading to the Nov. 5 election. Scott slammed Mucarsel-Powell as an “open-border socialist” while Mucarsel-Powell called Scott an “extremist” who would put social safety net programs at risk and push for a federal abortion ban.
The race: Amendment 3
What’s on the ballot: Recreational marijuana
What's at stake: In Florida, voters statewide will decide on Amendment 3, which seeks to legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21 and older. As with all proposed constitutional amendments in the state, the measure requires no less than a 60% majority to pass. It would allow people to purchase, possess and use marijuana, but would not allow home growing. Its passage could align Florida with the 24 other states that have already legalized recreational marijuana, potentially affecting the state's economy and criminal justice system. Gov. Ron DeSantis and other top conservatives in the state oppose the measure, with the governor saying it could lead to prolific pot smells, among other criticisms.
The race: Amendment 4
What’s on the ballot: Abortion access
What's at stake: This ballot initiative aims to guarantee abortion access in Florida. It’s generated the most attention, especially since the Florida Supreme Court gave its OK to a six-week abortion ban in the state. Florida Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, have come out in force against the amendment. If approved, abortion access would be assured up to fetal viability, or how soon a fetus can survive outside of its mother's womb, generally considered 24 weeks. It would also allow abortions when necessary to protect a patient’s health, as determined by a health care provider. Opponents say that’s too vague and will lead to an unregulated abortion industry, but proponents dismiss those claims as “scare tactics.”
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Georgia
The race: Georgia House District 42
Who is running: Gabriel Sanchez, a 27-year-old Democratic Socialist, and Republican Diane Jackson are both vying for their first term in the Georgia legislature.
What’s at stake: Sanchez is the first Democratic Socialist to win a state primary in Georgia, according to the Atlanta chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. In the May primary, he defeated incumbent Rep. Teri Anulewicz, who has served in the House since 2017. District 42 has not been represented by a Republican since 2012 and overwhelmingly voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, meaning Sanchez will likely be the first Democratic Socialist state lawmaker in Georgia’s history.
The race: Georgia House District 53
Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Deborah Silcox, a Republican, is vying for her second term representing District 53 against Democrat Susie Greenberg.
What’s at stake: This race is one of the most competitive in the state, and one of the most expensive legislative battles. Silcox flipped the district Republican in the last election, winning by fewer than 1,500 votes. Greenberg has raised nearly $432,000, according to her most recent campaign filing, more than four times Silcox’s $103,000 from this year’s campaign. Silcox previously represented House District 52 but lost to Rep. Shea Roberts, a Democrat, in 2020. Silcox notably refused to concede for over six months following the election, after a lawsuit was filed by a Sandy Springs resident alleging that voter fraud had occurred in the district. The case was eventually dismissed by the Georgia Supreme Court.
The race: Georgia Senate District 48
Who is running: Incumbent Sen. Shawn Still, a Republican, is defending his seat from Democratic challenger Ashwin Ramaswami
What’s at stake: Still was one of 19 people indicted in Georgia as part of former President Trump’s fake elector scheme, having served as a secretary who signed and filed false documents in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. His opponent, Ramaswami, has been campaigning on his experience in election cybersecurity and other progressive issues, and has raised more than five times as much as Still, according to recent campaign filings. If elected, Ramaswami would be the first Indian American and first Gen Z lawmaker in the Georgia Senate.
— Maya Homan, USA TODAY NETWORK
Hawaii
The race: Hawaii Island mayor
Who is running: Incumbent Mayor Mitch Roth is seeking a second term against challenger Kimo Alameda. Roth, a former Hawaii County prosecutor, has over 40 years of public service experience, while Alameda, a psychologist and former VP at Hawai‘i Island Community Health Center, has deep ties to the island and has been compared to the late Mayor Billy Kenoi.
What’s at stake: Key issues include affordable housing, homelessness, permit backlogs, and infrastructure upgrades. The race is closely watched due to the split endorsements from labor unions, with Roth supported by private-sector unions and Alameda backed by public-sector unions. In the August primary, Roth led with 38% of the vote, but Alameda’s 28% and the 34% secured by four other candidates make this a competitive race, as those voters could swing the outcome in November.
The race: Office of Hawaiian Affairs Board of Trustees
Who is running: Six candidates are running for three seats on the Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) Board. For the at-large trustee seat, incumbent Keli‘i Akina is being challenged by Lei Ahu Isa. In the Kauai-Niihau seat race, incumbent Dan Ahuna faces Laura Lindsey. For the Molokai-Lanai seat, incumbent Luana Alapa is running against Kunani Nihipali. Additionally, Kaiali‘i Kai” Kahele has already secured the at-large trustee seat for Hawaii County in the primary election.
What’s at stake: The OHA Board directs significant resources to Native Hawaiian communities through scholarships, loans, and grants. These trustees play a vital role in shaping programs that promote education, business development, and community support for Native Hawaiians across the state.
The race: Hawaii legislative races
What’s at stake: Hawaii's Legislature is set for a major shakeup, with at least 11 new members joining the upcoming session. With all 51 House seats and 13 of 25 Senate seats up for election, a wave of retirements, primary defeats, and shifting political dynamics are driving significant turnover.
Key races: One of the most notable upsets occurred in House District 25, where progressive Kim Coco Iwamoto ousted House Speaker Scott Saiki, leaving a leadership vacancy that will be addressed after the election. In other key House races, Ikaika Hussey unseated longtime Rep. May Mizuno in District 29, while Shirley Ann Templo defeated Rep. Sonny Ganaden in District 30, signaling growing ideological diversity within Hawaii’s Democratic Party. The race in District 50, where Mike Lee will face Republican Timothy Connelly, could also see a competitive challenge from the GOP. In the Senate, Democrat Cedric Gates is battling Republican Samantha Decorte in Senate District 22, a district that has been trending more conservative, offering the GOP a rare opportunity in a predominantly Democratic state.
What's at stake: These contests reflect broader trends of political shifts in Hawaii, with an incoming class that could tilt the legislature in new directions on housing, education, and economic policy. Whether the state moves further left or sees a surge in conservative momentum will depend on the outcomes of these races, marking a pivotal moment for the future of Hawaii’s politics.
The race: Constitutional amendments
What’s on the ballot: Voters in Hawaii will consider two significant state constitutional amendments. The first proposal aims to remove the legislature's authority to limit marriage to opposite-sex couples, contingent upon a reversal of the U.S. Supreme Court's 2014 decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. The second proposal seeks to streamline the judicial appointment process by aligning the selection of district court judges with that of Supreme Court justices and higher court judges, enhancing consistency and efficiency in the judiciary.
What’s at stake: These amendments mark a notable shift from Hawaii's recent trend of maintaining legislative control over such matters. They represent the first constitutional amendments on the ballot since 2018, following a long period of inaction where the legislature rejected hundreds of proposals, including 68 in the current biennium. Given Hawaii's stringent requirements for passing amendments — requiring a two-thirds vote in both chambers or consecutive majority votes — the outcome could have lasting implications for the state’s legal framework and judicial system.
— Jeremy Yurow, USA TODAY NETWORK
More: Hawaii voters to decide on marriage law authority and judicial appointment process
Idaho
The race: Proposition 1
What’s on the ballot: Idaho voters will weigh in on an initiative to institute a top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting. Under a top-four primary system, all the primary candidates appear together on the same primary ballot, regardless of their party, and the top four vote-getters from that pool move on to the general election.
What’s at stake: Idaho’s Republican, Libertarian and Constitution Party primaries are currently closed, meaning that only registered members can vote in them. The Democratic Primary is open, meaning anyone can vote regardless of their affiliation. According to Boise State Public Radio, almost a third of all registered voters in Idaho today are unregistered, which means they can’t vote in most primaries.
The race: Idaho Senate District 15
Who is running: Incumbent Sen. Rick Just, a Democrat, is defending his seat against Republican former state Rep. Codi Galloway in a rematch of a race from 2022. District 15 is a swing district in the western part of Boise.
What’s at stake: Spending on this race has been the highest among any state legislature race this year, Idaho Education News reported. Close to a quarter million in spending between the two candidates works out to almost $6 per resident in the district. Just won the seat in 2022 by less than 2 percentage points, a little more than 300 votes which, if that’s any indication of how this race will go, makes him perhaps one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the legislature this cycle.
The race: Idaho Senate District 6
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Foreman is fending off a challenge from Democrat Julia Parker. In 2022, Foreman ousted incumbent Democrat David Nelson in a tight race decided by little over 400 votes.
What’s at stake: This might be one of the best opportunities in Idaho for Democrats to flip a seat in the state Senate, which is dominated by Republican lawmakers by a four-to-one margin. Foreman had run against Nelson twice, in 2018 and 2020, before finally winning in 2022, showing how competitive the district is.
— George Russell, USA TODAY NETWORK
Illinois
The race: 17th Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Eric Sorenson faces off with challenger Joe McGraw, a retired Rockford judge running on the Republican ticket.
What’s at stake: This race, which covers majority of northern/northwestern and parts of central Illinois has been hotly contested the last few races, with the Democrats winning in tight races. The race is seen as a potential seat where Republicans can make a gain. Of the 17 seats in the congressional delegation, 14 are held by Democrats.
The race: 13th Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Nikki Budzinski faces off with Joshua Loyd, a political outsider running on the Republican ticket.
What’s at stake: This race is another one which was seen as a potential seat that could flip from blue to red in the Springfield area. In August, Democrats across the state poured “seven figure investments” into two races, this being one of them. Loyd is a West Point graduate and fervent backer of the Second Amendment.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Indiana
The race: Governor
Who is running: This is an open seat, since outgoing Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb is term-limited. Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun is giving up his Senate seat to run against Democrat Jennifer McCormick, a former state Superintendent of Public Instruction; and Libertarian Donald Rainwater, who previously garnered 11% of the vote in the 2020 gubernatorial race, a record for Indiana Libertarians.
What’s at stake: The race is Braun's to lose, in a solidly red state where Democrats haven't won a statewide office since 2012 or the governor's office since 2000. But since recent polling has shown Braun underperforming compared to other Republicans in Indiana, the race has suddenly seemed more competitive in the eyes of national observers and each party's governor associations, which have chipped in hundreds of thousands of dollars to each candidate in the last few weeks. A Democratic win is still unlikely, but there are signs that a solid performance by McCormick could mark the beginning of a pendulum shift for the balance of power in Indiana in elections to come.
The race: Indiana Attorney General
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Attorney General Todd Rokita is seeking a second four-year term against Democratic challenger Destiny Wells, an Indiana Army National Guard lieutenant colonel who has quickly risen to prominence in the state Democratic Party. Rokita has been a mainstay in Indiana Republican politics for the last two decades, serving in both the U.S. House and as Indiana Secretary of State. Wells has not held elected office but ran for Indiana Secretary of State back in 2022.
What’s at stake: There’s been a lot of attention on the race in the context of Indiana’s near-total abortion ban. Rokita is an ardent anti-abortion candidate who faced a national firestorm over his comments on Fox News about an Indiana doctor, Caitlin Bernard, who gave an abortion to a 10-year-old rape victim back in 2022. Wells has campaigned with Bernard and has pitched the race as a way for Hoosiers to weigh in on abortion rights since the state lacks a ballot referendum process.
The race: 1st Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan is seeking a third term in the U.S. House. He is being challenged by Republican Lake County Council member Randy Niemeyer, who has been endorsed by high-profile national Republicans and tapped as a “Young Gun” race to watch by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Libertarian Dakotah Miskus, a 25-year-old from LaPorte County, is also running in this election.
What’s at stake: The district is one of only two Democratic congressional districts in all of Indiana and the 2024 race is the second election cycle that Republicans have eyed the seat as a potential flip to grow their party’s majority in the House. In the 2022 midterms, Mrvan won reelection by 6 points over his Republican challenger in a race closely watched by national political analysts. Democrats have held the 1st District for nearly 100 years, but the area is made up of working-class Rust Belt communities where former President Donald Trump typically performs well.
— The Indianapolis Star, USA TODAY NETWORK
Iowa
The race: 1st Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in a rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan.
What’s at stake: Iowa’s 1st Congressional District could be the sleeper swing district in a state that has turned decidedly red in recent elections. Active voter registrations favor Republicans, and Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan in 2022 by about 7 percentage points. But in this rematch, national Democrats have funneled money into the race to capitalize on what they see as Miller-Meeks’ weakness with independents and even some Republicans. The limited publicly available polling of the race suggests Bohannan might have the edge.
The race: 3rd Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn is being challenged by Democrat Lanon Baccam, both of whom are veterans.
What’s at stake: Iowa’s 3rd District was anticipated to be its most contested after Nunn squeaked into office with a victory of less than 1 percentage point in 2022. In a state where Republicans hold all four congressional posts, it’s perhaps Democrats’ best chance of flipping a seat. It’s got a narrower Republican voter registration advantage than other districts in the state, and it’s home to some of Iowa’s largest urban metro areas, which tend to favor Democrats. But Nunn has avoided major missteps, and Republicans remain confident in their chances.
— The Des Moines Register, USA TODAY NETWORK
Kansas
The race: House District 52
Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Jesse Borjon, R-Topeka, faces challenger Jacquie Whitney Lightcap, D-Topeka.
What’s at stake: The biggest issue in Kansas elections is whether Republicans can retain or Democrats can break the GOP supermajorities in the legislature. National Democrats early on identified Borjon’s seat as a key pickup opportunity, but Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s PAC did not endorse in the race.
The race: House District 102
Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Jason Probst, D-Hutchinson, faces challenger Kyler Sweely, R-Hutchinson.
What’s at stake: The biggest issue in Kansas elections is whether Republicans can retain or Democrats can break the GOP supermajorities in the Legislature. Republicans believe they can grow their supermajorities and identified Probst’s seat as a key pickup opportunity.
The race: Senate District 10
Who is running: Incumbent Sen. Mike Thompson, R-Shawnee, faces challenger Andrew Mall, D-Shawnee.
What’s at stake: Johnson County, the state’s most populous county, is widely viewed as the most important electoral battleground, and this race could be a barometer for others in the Kansas City suburbs. Thompson is an affable former television weatherman, but has established himself as one of the most conservative lawmakers with high-profile questioning of climate science and election integrity.
The race: Senate District 11
Who is running: Incumbent Sen. Kellie Warren, R-Leawood, faces challenger Karen Thurlow, D-Stilwell.
What’s at stake: This is another high-profile race in Johnson County. Warren was a significant figure behind Value Them Both, an anti-abortion constitutional amendment that voters decisively rejected in 2022. The race could show whether reproductive rights continue to be a winning issue for Democrats.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Kentucky
The race: Amendment 2
Who is running: Kentucky voters will weigh in on a constitutional amendment that, if passed, would let state lawmakers direct spending toward non-public education, including through charter school and voucher programs.
What’s at stake: While proponents of the change say this would allow Kentucky students to have wider access to a variety of schools that may better suit their educational needs, critics allege that the amendment would leave a devastating financial impact on the state's public school system.
— The Courier-Journal, USA TODAY NETWORK
Louisiana
The race: 4th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson doesn’t face a serious challenge in what is considered a safe GOP seat, but his race and reaction after will be closely watched because of his close ties to former President Trump.
What’s at stake: Johnson’ previous defense of Trump both during his impeachment and following the 2020 election that Trump lost has raised questions as to whether the leader of the House will certify the 2024 presidential election if Trump loses again.
The race: 6th Congressional District
Who is running: Democratic state Sen. Cleo Fields, who served in Congress in the 1990s, and former Republican state Sen. Elbert Guillory are familiar faces on the ballot, but they are joined by newcomer Quentin Anthony Anderson, a Democrat and executive chairman of a social justice nonprofit, who is also running a district-wide campaign.
What’s at stake: Louisiana’s new 6th District boundaries created a court-ordered second majority-Black district that favors Democrats and caused incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Garret Graves to bow out of race. A victory here by Democrats would cut into the Republicans’ slim majority in the House.
The race: Amendment No. 1 to the Louisiana Constitution
What’s on the ballot: The proposed amendment would expand the dedication to the Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund to add federal money the state receives from offshore wind, solar and other alternative or renewable energy sources generated in federal Gulf waters off the state’s coast.
What’s at stake: Louisiana has lost 2,000 square miles of land since the 1930s, about the size of Delaware. The state’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Fund provides money for projects to restore and preserve the Louisiana coast.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Maine
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden is being challenged by Republican Austin Theriault
What’s at stake: Golden is running for his third term in Congress, but as a Democrat in a Trump-won district, he is particularly vulnerable to a Republican challenge. Not only are the party demographics stacked against him, but he also recently changed his position on assault weapons after Maine’s deadliest ever shooting in Lewiston last October. A district with a high proportion of gun owners, this may come back to hurt him in the election. While Golden is a blue dog, conservative Democrat, Theriault, a Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver, has tried to tie him to national Democrats as well as criticized him on the gun issue. The race will be an important one for determining which party will take control of the US House of Representatives.
The race: Maine state legislature
Who is running: Every representative and senator in the Maine state legislature
What’s at stake: Maine currently has a Democratic trifecta in state politics, with Democrats controlling the governorship, the state House, and the state Senate. The governor has two more years left of her term, but every seat in the legislature is up for reelection. Maine also has term limits on its legislators — they are elected to two-year terms and are limited to four consecutive terms — making the races more volatile and open than other states. While Democrats are the favorites to retain control, these factors along a national election with Trump on the ballot is causing Republicans to feel hopeful of capturing one of those chambers this year, more likely the House.
The race: Flag question
Who is running: Measure to change Maine’s state flag
What’s at stake: This measure would replace the current official Maine state flag, which is blue with the state’s coat of arms, with the former state flag, which features a green pine tree and the North Star on a light tan background. The former state flag, commonly known as the Pine Tree Flag, was originally adopted in 1901 before being replaced by the current flag in 1909. It’s become a slightly controversial ballot measure, with some conservatives see changing the flag as a sign of “wokeness,” as the current flag features two white men next to the coat of arms. However, the Pine Tree Flag is already an iconic image, appearing on souvenirs, clothing and many flag poles.
— Margie Cullen, USA TODAY NETWORK
Maryland
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, are seeking the U.S. Senate seat held by Sen. Ben Cardin, who is not seeking reelection after serving three terms.
What’s at stake: The eyes of the nation are on Maryland as the Senate race may help might decide the balance of power in the chamber. Though Larry Hogan has said he won't vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, the shadow of presidential race holds major sway over this contest. Alsobrooks leads by double digits in many polls, but this one should still come down to the wire.
The race: Legislatively referred abortion amendment
What's on the ballot: In 2023, the Maryland General Assembly passed legislation to refer an amendment to the state’s Constitution on abortion to voters. The state’s voters approved a related measure in 1992 with a majority voting to make the procedure legal. If the measure is passed, any future changes would require a future General Assembly to put the issue again before voters. If the measure fails, the procedure would still be allowed under current state law.
What's at stake: Though this ballot measure in bright blue Maryland is almost certain to pass, by how wide a margin could have a big impact on Maryland's U.S. Senate race. Ads supporting Democrat Angela Alsobrooks have continuously singled out Republican Larry Hogan's personal opposition to abortion, though Hogan's campaign has stressed that he has publicly opposed to a federal abortion ban and as far back as when he first ran for governor, Hogan promised not to change Maryland’s laws protecting abortion access.
— Keith Demko, USA TODAY NETWORK
Massachusetts
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is being challenged by Republican John Deaton
What's at stake: Warren has gained a national profile in her two terms as senator, compiling one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate. She's been willing to break with party leadership on key issues such as immigration — voting earlier this year against a bipartisan Senate immigration bill and criticizing President Joe Biden's executive order on tightening the border. Deaton moved to Massachusetts from Rhode Island only months before the primaries. The cryptocurrency lawyer has highlighted his rough childhood in the Detroit area while presenting a moderate stance on issues such as abortion — at times infuriating conservative Republicans in the process.
The race: Ballot Question 2, Eliminating the MCAS Graduation Requirement
What's on the ballot: For more than 20 years, students have been required to pass the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System tests in math, science and technology, and English in order to graduate from a public high school in Massachusetts. If it is passed, Ballot Question 2 would eliminate the requirement.
What’s at stake: The question has divided some of the most prominent Democrats in the state. Supporters include Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Reps. Ayanna Pressley, James McGovern, Lori Trahan and William Keating. Opponents include Gov. Maura Healey, Lt. Gov. Kimberly Driscoll and Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell. Supporters of the ballot question, including the state's teachers unions, say the test is a one-size-fits-all exam that does not properly evaluate student performance and achievement. Opponents, who include business-aligned groups as well as the state superintendents association, say removing the requirement would lead to a lowering of standards across the board.
The race: Ballot Question 5, Minimum Wage for Tipped Workers
What's on the ballot: Current law allows employers of service workers such as servers, bartenders and nail technicians to pay them as little as $6.25 an hour, as long as tips raise the workers’ pay to at least the regular minimum wage of $15. If they do not, employers must make up the difference. Question 5 would gradually eliminate the difference between tipped workers' minimum wage and the standard minimum wage.
What's at stake: If the question passes, by Jan. 1, 2029, the statewide minimum wage would apply to all workers. The measure would also allow employers to pool tips to distribute to all their workers, as long as everyone on the payroll is paid the state minimum wage. Supporters of the ballot question say that tips should be a reward for good service, and not a subsidy for employers who pay less than minimum wage. The ballot question has been fiercely opposed by the restaurant industry, which warns passage will lead to higher menu prices for consumers, and will force restaurants to cut staff or even close.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Michigan
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Three-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who served as a CIA officer in Iraq and as a Pentagon official, faces Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who served seven two-year terms before leaving in 2015 and rose the rank of House Intelligence Committee chairman.
What’s at stake: This is one of a handful of open seats in the U.S. Senate, the result of Democratic U.S. Debbie Stabenow’s decision last year not to run for a fifth six-year term, so it could play into which party ends up with majority control of the chamber. Democrats (and the independents they caucus with) currently have a one-seat majority. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Spencer Abraham in the Republican wave of 1994. But with Michigan clearly in play as a presidential battleground, Republicans are hoping Rogers can ride what they are hoping is former President Donald Trump’s strength in a state he won in 2016 to a victory.
The race: 7th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett, a former Army helicopter pilot, faces former state Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr., a member of a well-known Michigan political family who was a key aide to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
What’s at stake: Two years ago, Barrett lost to Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin in one of the most expensive House races in the nation in a redrawn district centered in and around Lansing, the state capitol. Slotkin is running for U.S. Senate this year and Barrett is back figuring that Hertel may be an easier opponent than his former rival who was known for raising scads of money and doing well in tossup districts like this one. Hertel, meanwhile, is trying to capitalize on Barrett’s previous stance as an all-out abortion opponent, even though he says he will vote for anything that crosses protections put into the state constitution in 2022. With control of the U.S. House possibly in play, millions in outside spending have already poured into this race again.
The race: 8th Congressional District
Who is running: Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet faces Paul Junge, a former assistant prosecutor, TV anchor and official with the Homeland Security Department during the Trump administration.
What’s at stake: Like the race in the 7th District, this is one which, if U.S. House races are close nationally, could determine which party holds majority control of the chamber. Right now, Republicans hold an eight-seat majority in the U.S. House. Even though this district, anchored by Flint, Bay City and Saginaw in mid-Michigan, has been trending more Republican in recent years, it was considered a likely Democratic hold until U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee last year announced he would leave at the end of this term, his sixth. KIldee’s late uncle, Rep. Dale Kildee, sat in the seat before him for 18 two-year terms.
The race: 10th Congressional District
Who is running: Republican U.S. Rep. John James, in his first term in Congress, faces a rematch with Carl Marlinga, a Democratic former Macomb County judge and prosecutor.
What’s at stake: This district, which includes much of southern Macomb County and parts of neighboring Oakland County, was widely seen as trending Republican when it was redrawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. As such, Democratic groups largely stayed away, figuring James, a businessman and former Army helicopter pilot who had run two strong but ultimately unsuccessful U.S. Senate races, would easily win. It was anything but easy in the end: Marlinga, who has been in and around Macomb County politics for decades and presents himself as a pragmatist and a moderate Democrat, came within about one-half of 1% of beating James, despite being outspent by a 6-to-1 margin. James is running on his record, saying he has worked to bring projects back to the district; Marlinga, now with some Democratic support behind him, is trying to portray James’ conservativism as out of step with the district.
— Detroit Free Press, USA TODAY NETWORK
Minnesota
The race: Minnesota House of Representatives District 14B
Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Dan Wolgamott, DFL-St. Cloud, is looking to keep his seat in the Minnesota legislature, which he first won in 2018. He is being challenged by Republican Sue Ek, who previously ran for office in 2005.
Why it matters: The Minnesota statehouse is completely controlled by the DFL, which is Minnesota's Democratic party. Republicans are looking to flip the House to end the DFL trifecta, and St. Cloud is historically a political battleground, with some candidates in District 14A winning by fewer than 200 votes. Wolgamott came under fire last fall after he got a DWI. Meanwhile, his Republican opponent is labeled as extreme with her vocal opposition against same-sex marriage, contraceptives and abortion access. LGBTQ+ issues remain a hot topic in the state. The DFL trifecta passed a law banning conversion therapy for LGBTQ+ youth last legislative session. In addition, the state passed gender-affirming care legislation for minors.
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking reelection. She is challenged by Republican Royce White, Independent-Alliance Party candidate Joyce Lacey and Libertarian Rebecca Whiting.
What's at stake: Minnesota's U.S. Senate race is sparking a conversation about morals. White, a former NBA player, has been criticized for allegedly using past campaign funds at strip clubs. At a St. Cloud appearance, he told voters he is transphobic, alleged the "woke left" are trying to villainize Christians and said he's further right than former President Donald Trump. This in part caused former Republican, current Independent-Alliance Party candidate Joyce Lacey to run, saying conservatives needed another option. Despite the conversations, incumbent Klobuchar is polling significantly behind her 24-point margin of victory in 2018. Current 2024 polls show the Democratic senator having an 8- to 11-point lead.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Mississippi
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is on the ballot: Democratic candidate Ty Pinkins, a Delta native, is seeking to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, a Pontotoc native who has been in office since 2008. If Pinkins' wins, he would be the first Democrat to occupy the office since John C. Stennis, who retired in 1989. While Pinkins' name became more common due to the 2023 Mississippi Secretary of State race in which Pinkins lost, he is polling at a mere 1% against Wicker.
What's at stake: Pinkins' challenge to Wicker, if successful, would contribute to the Democratic defense of their majority in the U.S. Senate. A Pinkins victory would also take Mississippi's congressional ratio from five Republicans and one Democrat to four Republicans and two Democrats. While a Democratic win in this race is a long shot, how far Pinkins closes the 99-point gap with Wicker by Nov. 5 will be used as a starting line for future Democrats running for Mississippi's congressional seats.
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is on the ballot: Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson is running against Republican challenger Ron Eller, who has never won a political race. Thompson, who is favored to win, has been in office in Washington, D.C., since 1993 and has become something of an institution among national and state Democrats. Notably, Thompson has served as the chair of the Jan. 6 Investigative Committee, trying to unfold the chain of events surrounding a Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.
What's at stake: Thompson is the only Democrat from Mississippi in the U.S. Congress right now and has been so since 2011. If he were to lose to Eller, the state's largest Black and Democratic district would go red and Mississippi would not be represented by any Democrat in Washington, D.C., if Republican U.S. Reps. Trent Kelly and Mike Ezell, and Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker don't lose to their respective races.
The race: Mississippi Supreme Court Central District, Place 1
Who is on the ballot: Incumbent Jim Kitchens faces a challenge from four opponents for one of the state's supreme court judge seats. Kitchens was appointed to his seat in 2009, and it is uncommon for a judge to win a seat as a challenger to incumbents in Mississippi, according to state election records.
What's at stake: Of Kitchen's opponents, one, state Sen. Jenifer Branning, R-Philadelphia, has been endorsed by the Mississippi Republican Party. The race, as well as the Mississippi Supreme Court, is supposed to be nonpartisan. With an endorsement from the state GOP, a Branning victory could mean a more conservative lean on the court. Kitchens is listed as a nonpartisan candidate, as well as Ceola James and Byron Carter, who are also running in that race.
The race: Mississippi Supreme Court District 2, Place 2
Who is on the ballot: Incumbent Dawn Beam has served on the court since she was appointed by former Republican Gov. Phil Bryant in 2016. She faces just one challenger, David Sullivan, a South Mississippi attorney.
What's at stake: Like in other races this year, the Mississippi GOP has endorsed Beam to beat Sullivan, who himself has so far been outraising Beam for the court seat. Judge positions in Mississippi and judicial races are known for being nonpartisan. Considering the endorsement for Beam, a Sullivan victory could signify a political shift. It would also represent a break from how judges usually win a Supreme Court seat, which is to be appointed and then reelected as an incumbent.
— The Clarion-Ledger, USA TODAY NETWORK
Missouri
The race: Amendment 3, abortion rights
What’s on the ballot: A ballot initiative amending the state Constitution to establish a “right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives” without government interference. While establishing a constitutional right to abortion, the amendment would still allow government regulation of the practice as well as restrictions on abortions that take place after fetal viability.
What’s at stake: Missouri was the first state to outlaw abortion after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, enacting a trigger law passed in 2019. The heavily-funded effort to get the abortion rights initiative on the ballot has been opposed by Republican legislators and elected officials at every step, with the state Supreme Court weighing in at the 11th hour to keep it on the ballot.
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is seeking a second term after flipping Missouri’s second Senate seat in 2018, when he defeated Democrat Claire McCaskill. Though polls still show Hawley favored to win, Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce, a former Marine, has closed the gap while significantly outperforming Hawley in fundraising. In addition, independent candidate Jared Young, who formed his own Better Party when establishing his candidacy, is running with the endorsement of former Republican Sen. Jack Danforth.
What’s at stake: Republicans have established a significant advantage in Missouri over the past two decades and now control every statewide elected office, as well as both seats in the U.S. Senate. How competitive the race turns out to be is likely to highlight Hawley’s vulnerability as well as the effectiveness of Democrats’ strategy — Kunce is the second Missouri Democrat with a military background to run competitively for Senate. Young’s performance, meanwhile, could point to desire among moderates and conservatives for a return to a more balanced approach.
The race: Governor
Who is running: Republican Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe faces Democrat Crystal Quade, who is termed out in the state House of Representatives, where she has served as minority floor leader.
What’s at stake: Missouri last elected a Democratic governor in 2012, when moderate Jay Nixon won a second term. In the years since, Republicans have taken every statewide office and hold supermajorities in the legislature. Kehoe, endorsed by outgoing Gov. Mike Parson, is heavily favored to win, but the race against Quade — a well-liked leader who has helped flip several seats for Democrats in conservative southwest Missouri — will show how much ground progressives need to make up to be competitive again. With abortion rights on the ballot and Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket, conditions are as favorable as they’re likely to get for Quade to close the gap.
— Amos Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK
Montana
The race: U.S. Senate:
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for his fourth term against Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. Sheehy currently leads by 7 points, according to RealClearPolitics polling average.
What’s at stake: Tester is one of the last remaining Democrats in a heavily Republican state. His loss could almost guarantee a GOP Senate majority. Despite trailing in the polls, Democrats are heavily investing in Tester’s campaign, with outside groups spending tens of millions of dollars. Native American voter turnout, which played a crucial role in Tester’s previous victories, could be a deciding factor. Sheehy's comments about Native Americans and questions about his past have provided Democrats with attack lines. The outcome will likely come down to turnout and the effectiveness of both candidates’ ground games.
More: These congressional races could decide which party leads the US Senate and House
The race: Montana's Second Congressional District
Who's running: Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke is seeking reelection, facing Democrat Monica Tranel in a rematch from 2022. Zinke, a former Navy SEAL and interior secretary under Donald Trump, won that race by 4 points. Tranel, a former Olympic rower and energy lawyer, is giving it another shot after her narrow loss.
What's at stake: This race could play a key role in deciding control of the House, where Republicans hold a slim majority. Zinke has moved further to the right, aligning closely with Trump on issues like the border and "cancel culture." Tranel, once a Republican herself, has positioned her campaign as a fight for accountability and transparency in government. The district includes both Democratic hubs like Missoula and Republican strongholds, making it a competitive battleground.
The race: Montana Supreme Court justices
Who is running: Voters in Montana will elect two new justices to the state Supreme Court in 2024. The race for chief justice features Jerry Lynch, a former federal magistrate, and Cory Swanson, an attorney with military experience. For the associate justice position, Katherine M. Bidegaray, a district court judge and ranch owner, is running against Dan Wilson, a former justice of the peace.
What's at stake: The upcoming election is crucial as it could shift the ideological balance of the Montana Supreme Court. Currently, the court has three liberal-leaning justices, two conservative-leaning justices, and two swing voters. If both conservative candidates win, the court may lean conservative for the first time in years. However, if at least one liberal candidate secures a seat, the court will maintain its existing balance. Partisan groups are already making endorsements: Democratic-aligned organizations support Lynch and Bidegaray, while Swanson and Wilson receive backing from prominent conservatives, including Gov. Greg Gianforte.
The race: Montana abortion access
What’s on the ballot: Montana voters will decide whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution. This measure seeks to protect a 1999 Montana Supreme Court ruling, which asserts that the right to privacy includes the right to a pre-viability abortion by a provider of the patient’s choice.
What's at stake: This initiative comes as Republican lawmakers have tried to overturn the Supreme Court ruling since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. The Montana Legislature passed a law in 2023 stating that the right to privacy does not safeguard abortion rights. Supporters collected over 81,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot, while opponents attempted to block it. With abortion access becoming a hot button issue nationwide, the outcome in Montana could set a precedent for similar measures in other states.
— Jeremy Yurow, USA TODAY NETWORK
Nebraska
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon is seeking a fifth term in a race against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha.
What’s at stake: The race between Bacon and Vargas is seen as one of the most competitive House races in the country this year and is being eyed by national Democrats as an opportunity to flip a Republican seat in its attempt to regain a majority in the House. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is deeply moderate and has gone for Bacon since 2016, despite flipping for President Joe Biden in 2020. Vargas ran against Bacon in 2022 and lost by nearly three points. Vargas has been polling just points ahead of Bacon in recent weeks and the Cook Political Report identified the race as a toss up in late September.
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer is seeking a third six-year term against former union leader, steamfitter and independent candidate Dan Osborn.
What’s at stake: A few months ago, the race appeared to clearly favor Fischer, who has broad financial and political backing in the deeply Republican state. That was the case until this summer, when polls conducted by Osborn’s campaign showed him and Fischer in a dead heat. Outside groups are pouring advertising money into both campaigns and the Cook Political Report recently changed the race’s leaning from solid-R to likely-R.
The race: Dueling abortion-related ballot initiatives
What’s on the ballot: Dueling abortion-related ballot initiatives: one aiming to expand abortion access in the state and the other looking to limit it.
What’s at stake: While multiple states will see abortion on the ballot this election, Nebraska is the first since the overturning of Roe v. Wade to put competing measures before voters. One measure backed by Protect Our Rights, a coalition of reproductive rights groups in the state, aims to enshrine the right to abortion when it is “needed to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient,” as well extend abortion access up to fetal viability. However, it does not list a specific number of weeks. The other sponsored by Protect Women and Children would enshrine Nebraska’s current 12-week ban in the state Constitution with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the pregnant woman. It would allow the state legislature to pass narrower or complete bans in the future.
The race: Ballot measure on the legalization of medical cannabis
What’s on the ballot: Two measures aimed at legalizing medical marijuana.
What’s at stake: Nebraska is one of the last states where the use of medical cannabis is still illegal. To combat Nebraska’s single-issue law, the group is sponsoring two separate measures. One would decriminalize the use of medical marijuana and create protections for patients and caregivers. The other would legalize possessing, manufacturing, distributing, delivering and dispensing cannabis for medical purposes and create a state commission to regulate the drug.
— Maya Hoff, USA TODAY NETWORK
Nevada
The race: U.S. Senate
Who’s running: Incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown
What's at stake: Democrats’ majority in the U.S. Senate is hanging by a thread, and Nevada’s seat up for election this year is considered competitive. Rosen, who prides herself on being one of Congress’ most bipartisan members, has an edge in the polls against Brown, an Army veteran who’s fully in former President Donald Trump’s camp. If Trump wins Nevada — the presidential race is within a single percentage point in the polls — his coattails could help Brown. In 2022, Catherine Cortez Masto — a well-liked incumbent Democrat with support from numerous prominent Republicans — won her U.S. Senate race by only about 8,000 votes. The Senate race may be a squeaker again.
The race: Ranked-choice voting
What’s on the ballot: A “yes” vote on the initiative would create primaries where the top five candidates regardless of party would move on to the general election.
What's at stake: This ballot race could upend Nevada politics for years to come by allowing nonpartisans — who outnumber Republicans and Democrats in the state — to participate in partisan primaries for state and federal races. Currently only Republicans and Democrats can vote in their own party’s primary races. Supporters think the initiative will create less extreme candidates because candidates will need to appeal to voters across the political spectrum, and they say voters will have more choice because often only the two candidates with the most money get on the November ballot. Opponents say it’ll create confusion and could diminish the chances of independent candidates who would now have to compete with major party candidates in primaries. Only three states currently have ranked-choice voting: Alaska, Maine and Hawaii.
The race: Washoe County Question 1 — library funding
What’s the ballot: Continue a dedicated funding stream for the Washoe County Library System or give the county commission more oversight of library programs.
What's at stake: As part of the culture wars in a swing county of a swing state, Reno-area libraries have been the scene of heated protests and increased security. Of the 22 book challenges last year in Nevada libraries — most of those over LGBTQ+ content — all were in Washoe County. This summer, the library system ended Drag Queen Story Hours at its libraries, citing “violence against staffers … perpetrated by a small group of very vocal, very aggressive protesters.” A Drag Queen Story Hour protester — Bruce Parks, chair of the Washoe County Republican Party — co-authored the official ballot argument against continuing the library’s dedicated funding stream. The dedicated funding stream represents about a quarter of the library system's budget. If the initiative fails, the library would have to appeal to elected officials to make up that shortfall.
— Reno Gazette Journal, USA TODAY NETWORK
New Hampshire
The race: Governor
Who is running: Republican former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte faces Democrat former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in an open seat race to succeed Gov. Chris Sununu, who has been the state’s popular Republican governor for eight years.
What’s at stake: Democrats are hoping to take back the governor's office in New Hampshire for the first time since 2016. The most competitive governor’s race in the country, Ayotte benefits from name recognition, while Craig is bolstered by Vice President Kamala Harris’ popularity in the state. Ayotte’s poor relationship with Trump as well as his lack of popularity in the state means she will likely have to run far ahead of the former president to win the seat. She has also faced attacks on her past votes on abortion policies, while Craig has faced attacks over homelessness in Manchester. While the state has trended more Democratic in federal elections in recent years, the state government has been controlled by Republicans. Ayotte currently holds a narrow lead over Craig in the polls.
The race: 1st Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas is seeking a fourth two-year term to represent New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District against Republican former New Hampshire Executive Councilor Russell Prescott.
What’s at stake: While New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District has historically been a swing district, the moderate Pappas has dominated in recent years, proving his ability to win over voters from both parties. It is currently rated likely Democratic by the Cook Political Report. But Prescott is a less pro-Trump Republican opponent than Pappas has faced in the past, and his supporters hope this will help him unseat the popular incumbent and allow Republicans to take one of the two congressional seats.
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Maggie Goodlander faces Republican Lily Tang Williams in this open race seat to replace retiring Rep. Annie Kuster.
What’s at stake: This seat leans likely Democratic, but features two unique candidates. A political newcomer, Goodlander is a former senior White House aide in President Joe Biden’s administration as well as the wife of National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. She won a hard-fought primary against Kuster’s endorsed successor, Colin Van Ostern, proving herself to be a savvy campaigner and fundraiser. She is favored over Lily Tang Williams, whose American dream-esque story of escaping communist China allowed her to emerge victorious from a field of 13 Republican candidates.
The race: New Hampshire Executive Council District 3
Who is running: Republican incumbent Executive Councilor is seeking a third term to represent the Seacoast of New Hampshire in the five-body Executive Council. She is being challenged by Democrat former state Sen. Jon Morgan.
What’s at stake: New Hampshire’s little known Executive Council has been dominated by a Republican majority of 4-1 thanks to heavy gerrymandering and has faced controversy for the Republican’s repeated rejection of funding for Planned Parenthood and other reproductive clinics in the state that provide basic, low-cost reproductive health care. Stevens is favored to hold onto her seat in the Republican-leaning district, but Morgan’s record of winning in similar partisan districts means he could be a legitimate threat.
— Margie Cullen, USA TODAY NETWORK
New Jersey
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Rep. Andy Kim, a Democrat, faces Republican Curtis Bashaw.
What’s at stake: The contest will determine the future of the seat long held by former Sen. Bob Menendez, who was convicted on federal bribery charges earlier this year and resigned from the Senate. Gov. Phil Murphy appointed George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to fill the seat until a successor is elected. Bashaw, a Cape May hotelier and businessman who is gay, has framed his campaign around moderate Republican positions familiar to New Jersey voters. Bashaw is pro-choice and has made his focus on government accountability and lowering spending. Kim, who has served in Congress since 2018 and was a diplomat in the administrations of former presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, prevailed in a competitive primary in which he held off a challenge from New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy. Kim is focused on ensuring America’s global economic competitivesness and stabilizing affordability.
The race: 7th Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Rep. Tom Kean Jr. Faces Democrat Sue Altman
What’s at stake: New Jersey’s sprawling 7th Congressional District is a microcosm of the Garden State itself and stretches across 95 municipalities in six diverse counties. The district includes urban, suburban and rural communities. Kean, first elected in 2022 after a career in the New Jersey Senate, is a moderate Republican who is focused on affordability and lowering government spending. Kean has endorsed former President Donald Trump. Altman, the former executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Party, is running on a platform that espouses women's and reproductive rights, safeguarding democratic institutions and asserting America’s leadership on the world stage. The race is tight, but registered Republicans in the district outnumber Democrats by more than 14,000.
— USA TODAY NETWORK - New Jersey
New Mexico
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez faces Republican Yvette Herrell
What’s at stake: As a result of redistricting in 2020, New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District stretches from its traditional boundaries encompassing the conservative southeastern part of the state to include portions of blue-leaning central and northern New Mexico. The seat has bounced back and forth between the parties since Republican Steve Pearce left it to seek election to the U.S. Senate, with Yvette Herrell gaining the seat in 2020 from Democrat Xotchitl Torres Small, who she challenged in 2018. Herrell then lost it in 2020 to Gabe Vasquez. Herrells’ loyalty to Trump is reflected in her stand on abortion and enthusiasm for domestic drilling of crude oil and natural gas resources, positions in direct opposition to the governor and majority Democratic state legislature.
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich faces Republican Nella Domenici
What’s at stake: Martin Heinrich has been at the forefront of developing New Mexico’s green energy transition, committing federal funds to establish wind and solar farms. Nella Domenici, daughter of Pete Domenici, a Republican who held New Mexico’s Senate seat for six terms, is following in her father’s conservative footsteps. Domenici says New Mexico should trade on its position in the Permian Basin, one of the largest oil producing regions in the U.S.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
New York
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, in office since 2009, is seeking another six-year term against Mike Sapraicone, a Long Island resident who owns a private security company.
What’s at stake: While Gillibrand is widely favored to win, New York state has seen some shifts in places from blue to red. Her margin of victory and where her numbers might slip from the 2018 election will be telling about New York’s political trends.
The race: Proposition 1
What’s on the ballot: New York has one statewide ballot question for voters to decide this fall: whether to add abortion and LGBTQ rights to the state Constitution. New York's would ban discrimination based on "reproductive healthcare" and a host of other reasons unrelated to abortion, such as sexual orientation, national origin and age.
What’s at stake: At a time when such rights are under attack in much of the country, this ballot measure’s fate will be instructive.
The race: 17th Congressional district
Who’s running: First-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawler faces former Rep. Mondaire Jones.
What’s at stake: The 17th Congressional District, one of the nation's most hotly contested swing districts — a seat Democrats lost in 2022 and need to recover to regain a House majority. Lawler eked out a narrow upset win in the suburbs north of New York City two years ago. If he retains his seat, that would reflect a reddening of these areas where residents have been concerned about immigration and crime. Jones is a former House member who saw his previous seat disappear in redistricting earlier this decade.
The race: 19th Congressional District
Who’s running: Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is seeking a second term in a rematch against Democratic challenger Josh Riley, former Dutchess County executive and a former state Assembly member.
What’s at stake: In early autumn, this was the most expensive House race in the country, reflecting the importance of the seat in terms of which party will control Congress in 2025 and 2026.
— USA TODAY NETWORK - New York
North Carolina
The race: Governor
Who is running: Mark Robinson, the current Republican lieutenant governor, has caused shock waves in North Carolina and national politics for his incendiary comments, most recently after a CNN article alleged he made racist and sexual posts on a pornography message board, which he denies. Robinson, 56, is running against Josh Stein, the 58-year-old lawyer and current attorney general.
What’s at stake: Abortion and education have become key aspects of this race. Although he’s flipped on his abortion stance, Robinson in the recent past has supported tighter restrictions. Stein is an outspoken reproductive rights supporter and is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Votes! South Atlantic. These candidates are also on opposite ends when it comes to funding education. Stein is fighting for fully funding public schools, and Robinson is supporting taxpayer funded private school vouchers. Robinson also used his time in office to investigate possible indoctrination of schools.
The race: Superintendent of Public Instruction
Who is running: Republican Michele Morrow is a former missionary and homeschool curriculum developer and nurse who is running against Democrat Maurice (Mo) Green, a previous superintendent of Guilford County Schools and general counsel and deputy superintendent for Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools.
What’s at stake: Morrow, 53, has become a controversial candidate for her presence at the Jan. 6 riot and incendiary remarks posted on social media, recently posting on X that the “+” in LGBTQ+ stands for “Pedophilia.” Morrow supports private school vouchers and has said she wants an audit of federal money in North Carolina schools, claiming their money often comes with strings attached, WRAL reports. Green’s campaign has called Morrow a “dangerous” choice for students, and he supports fully funding public schools and rejects using taxpayer money for private school vouchers. Green, 56, also hopes to partner more with outside community organizations to support children's education.
The race: North Carolina Supreme Court
Who is running: North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs is looking to keep her seat on the state’s high court after Gov. Roy Cooper appointed Riggs, a Democrat, to fill former Justice Mike Morgan’s slot on the bench in 2023, following his retirement. She is running against Jefferson Griffin, a Republican on the state court of appeals.
What's at stake: Republicans already hold a 5-2 majority on the state’s highest court, which in recent years has upheld gerrymandered maps that could give Republicans even greater control in the U.S. House. But if Riggs, a Democrat wins, her party will have the opportunity to regain that majority in 2028. Griffin is close with N.C. Supreme Court Justice Paul Newby. (Newby won his seat in 2020 by just 401 votes against Cheri Beasley.) So far this election, Griffin has raised $1.3 million, to Riggs’ $1.1 million.
The race: Buncombe County Board of Commissioners chair
Who is running: Former Buncombe County Sheriff Van Duncan is running for chair of the county board of commissioners as an unaffiliated candidate. His opponent, Commissioner Amanda Edwards, a Democrat, faces a steep fundraising gap.
What's at stake: Duncan, a former Democrat, is trying to toe the line between parties. But he’s received sizable campaign contributions from notable area Republicans like former Congressman Charles Taylor. Buncombe County is home to Asheville and was hard hit be Tropical Storm Helene. Whoever wins will likely play a major role in the county's Helene recovery efforts.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
North Dakota
The race: Initiated Statutory Measure No. 5
What’s on the ballot: The measure creates a new chapter of the North Dakota Century Code related to the legalization of cannabis and related regulation, according to North Dakota’s Secretary of State website.
What's at stake: If approved, it would allow for the production, processing, and sale of cannabis and the possession and use of various forms of cannabis by individuals who are 21 years of age and older. It would also allow the state to regulate the industry and preserve employer rights regarding the use of cannabis products by employees, among its provisions. The measure includes revenues of $10,227,600, expenses of $8,324,275, and “an undetermined amount of additional costs associated with behavioral health and social impacts for the 2025-2027 biennium,” the website states.
The race: Governor
Who is running: Michael (Coach) Coachman, an independent; Kelly Armstrong; a Republican; Merrill Piepkorn; a Democrat.
What's at stake: North Dakota caught a bit of attention this election season, when current Gov. Doug Burgum ended up on the short-list as a vice-presidential candidate for former President Donald Trump. Last year, Burgum briefly sought the Republican presidential nomination and in January, he announced he would not seek a third term as governor, leaving the race wide open.
— Shelly Conlon, Argus Leader, USA TODAY NETWORK
Ohio
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Three-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican businessman Bernie Moreno
What’s at stake: Brown is one of the most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot this year ? second only to Montana Sen. Jon Tester ? and the outcome in Ohio could determine which party controls a closely divided U.S. Senate come January. Former President Donald Trump also won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 and 2020. Polls show Trump easily winning Ohio again. This is the first time Brown has been on the ballot the same day as Trump, who has endorsed Moreno.
The race: State Issue 1
What's on the ballot: A group called Citizens Not Politicians crafted a new way to draw districts and put the constitutional amendment on the ballot as Issue 1.
What's at stake: The proposal would replace the current politician-run commission with a 15-member citizen commission of five independents and five members each from the top two political parties, currently the Republicans and Democrats. Members couldn't be elected officials, lobbyists or political consultants. During the last redistricting cycle, lawmakers and elected officials repeatedly drew legislative maps deemed unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court. Currently, Ohio Republicans dominate the redistricting process and hold supermajorities in the state House and Senate.
The race: 3 seats on the Ohio Supreme Court
Who is running: Cleveland Democrat Melody Stewart and Cincinnati Republican Joe Deters, both incumbent justices, are facing off. Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Deters to an unexpired term but Deters decided to challenge Stewart for a full term. Cleveland Democrat Michael Donnelly, an incumbent, is being challenged by Cincinnati Republican Megan Shanahan, a Hamilton County Common Pleas Court judge making her first statewide run. Cleveland Democrat Lisa Forbes, an 8th District Appellate Court judge, and Columbus Republican Dan Hawkins, a Franklin County Common Pleas Court judge, are both running for the seat left open by Deters' decision to challenge Stewart.
What’s at stake: Republicans have held majority on the court for nearly 40 years. The Democrats are trying to reelect two incumbent justices and win an open seat. The GOP wants to expand its majority by sweeping all three races, which would give Republicans six of seven seats. Who controls the court has a major impact on issues including abortion and redistricting.
— The Columbus Dispatch, USA TODAY NETWORK
Oklahoma
The race: Oklahoma Corporation Commission
Who is running: Republican Brian Bingman faces Democrat Harold Spradling and Libertarian Chad Williams in a race to replace outgoing Commissioner Bob Anthony. Bingman was the secretary of state until he stepped down last year to campaign for corporation commission.
What’s at stake: The influential Corporation Commission regulates public utilities, oil, gas and other energy sources, commercial transportation and petroleum storage tanks. The three-person commission has been the subject of recent turmoil after witnesses reported seeing Commissioner Todd Hiett grope a man while Hiett was extremely intoxicated at a conference in June. Hiett has refused to step down, and Anthony launched an investigation into his colleague’s behavior. Anthony’s replacement will now help determine how the commission moves forward.
The race: State Question 834
What’s on the ballot: A measure put on the ballot by Republican lawmakers asks voters to tweak part of the state Constitution that defines who can vote as a “qualified elector.”
What’s at stake: While only a few words would change, supporters say the move is needed to make clear only people who are legal citizens of the U.S. can vote in Oklahoma elections. Critics say the proposed change is targeting issues that don’t exist — routine audits of election results and voter rolls show the state’s election system is accurate and secure.
The race: 5th Congressional District, representing Oklahoma City and parts of central Oklahoma
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice faces a challenge from Democrat Madison Horn, a cybersecurity expert.
What’s at stake: While Oklahoma is a solidly red state, the metro area district Bice and Horn are vying to represent is turning purple. If voters send Horn to Washington, D.C., she would be the state’s lone Democratic representative in Congress. Her odds remain long, however. While Democrats are gaining ground in and around Oklahoma City, they’re still outnumbered by Republican voters. Republican incumbents are on track to retain Oklahoma’s four other seats in the U.S. House.
— The Oklahoman, USA TODAY NETWORK
Oregon
The race: Measure 118
What’s on the ballot: Measure 118, known as the Oregon Rebate, would raise the minimum corporate tax rate.
What’s at stake: Oregonians will decide whether to raise the minimum tax rate by 3% for corporations with Oregon sales above $25 million a year and distribute the proceeds to every Oregonian, beginning in 2025. Passage would make Oregon the first state with a universal basic income program. State analysts estimate the measure would increase corporate tax revenue by $1.3 billion during Oregon’s two-year budget cycle. Proponents say the measure would decrease the state poverty rate by “rebating” some $1,600 a year to every resident. Opponents say the measure would result in increased costs and loss of businesses.
The race: 5th Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Janelle Bynum is challenging incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer, R-Oregon.
What’s at stake: In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer was the first Republican woman elected to represent Oregon in the U.S. House. Bynum twice beat Chavez-DeRemer for the Oregon legislature and seeks to flip the seat. Polls have designated the race as a “toss-up.”
The race: Oregon attorney general
Who is running: Republican Will Lathrop and Democrat Dan Rayfield
What’s at stake: The race is Oregon’s first attorney general election since the state’s 2020 drug decriminalization measure was passed and later dismantled. Lathrop previously served as a deputy district attorney in Yamhill and Marion counties, while Rayfield has been a member of Oregon’s House of Representatives since 2015 and served as speaker of the House from February 2022 until the end of the 2024 legislative session. Democrat Ellen Rosenblum, who has been attorney general since 2012, announced her retirement in 2023. With more than $2 million in combined spending, the race is the most expensive of Oregon’s three statewide elections. Oregon’s last Republican attorney general left office in 1993.
The races: Mayor of Portland and Portland city councilors
Who is running: There are 19 people running for mayor, including three city commissioners, a trucking company leader, a stripper/author, and a nonprofit director. Ninety-eight candidates are running for 12 Portland City Council seats.
What’s at stake: The 2024 election will be the first using ranked-choice voting for the mayoral, auditor and city council races in Portland, Oregon's largest city. The new Portland mayor also will have a new job description. A voter-approved change in 2022 means the mayor will not have a vote on the Portland City Council unless there is a tie and will mostly serve in an administrative role.
— USA TODAY NETWORK
Pennsylvania
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey is vying for his fourth term against Republican Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and high-ranking Treasury Department official during former President George W. Bush's administration.
What’s at stake: The Pennsylvania Senate seat is a must-win for Democrats seeking to retain control of the upper chamber, which they hold by a razor-thin margin. Casey, a fixture in Pennsylvania politics, has breezed through his past reelection battles. But McCormick does have the advantage of voter discontent with President Joe Biden and has worked hard to implicate Casey in the Democratic administration's perceived shortcomings on immigration and the economy. While the incumbent is favored, the race has narrowed, and a handful of polls show the two candidates locked in a dead heat.
— Bethany Rodgers, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 10th Congressional District
Who is running: Six-term incumbent Republican Scott Perry is facing perhaps his strongest opponent so far, Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson, a popular former TV news anchor.
What’s at stake: Control of the U.S. House could be on the ballot in this race. Perry, a former chair of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, has not faced strong opposition during his tenure in Congress in a conservative district. But Stelson, a Republican turned Democrat, has hammered Perry for his positions on reproductive rights and has cast the election as a choice between anti-democratic views and her commitment to democracy. Perry was on the front lines of President Donald Trump’s fight to overturn the 2020 election, an effort that led the U.S. Justice Department to launch an investigation and seize Perry’s cell phone via a search warrant. That investigation has not resulted in any charges, and Perry has denied any wrongdoing. Political observers predict a close race in a district that became more competitive after the most recent redistricting. Polls show the race in a dead heat.
— Mike Argento, York Daily Record, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 1st Congressional District
Who is running: Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking a fifth term against Army veteran and Apache helicopter pilot Ashley Ehasz, who lost against Fitzpatrick in 2022 but now has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a “top-tier candidate” to flip a longtime red district in the Philadelphia suburbs.
What's at stake: The 1st District is one of 33 congressional races the DCCC has highlighted in its Red to Blue campaign to maintain or bolster control of the House. The southeastern Pennsylvania district has been under Republican leadership since 2011, with Fitzpatrick cementing a reputation as the most bipartisan member of congress. Ehasz’s campaign has pushed back on that neutral image, saying the incumbent’s bipartisanship won’t extend to reproductive rights and threats to democracy.
— Chris Ullery, Pennsylvania state investigative team, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: Pennsylvania Senate, 49th District
Who is running: Two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Laughlin faces a challenge from the former chair of the Erie County Democratic Party Jim Wertz, a first-time candidate.
What's at stake: Democrats see district, which covers nearly all of Erie County, as being among the seats they can flip to take over the state Senate. Laughlin and Wertz, who used to trade emails about politics, also are engaged in a civil lawsuit. Laughlin claims the weekly Erie Reader and Wertz defamed him by publishing an opinion piece by Wertz — who was a contributing editor and writer for the publication before his state Senate bid — that accused Laughlin and U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly of seeking a pardon over the 2020 election. Laughlin had signed an amicus brief that specifically stated it was not taking the side of either the plaintiff or the defendant in the case Texas v. Pennsylvania, which was a hail-Mary attempt to overturn the results of the presidential election.
— Matthew Rink, Pennsylvania state investigative team, USA TODAY NETWORK
Rhode Island
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is seeking a fourth term against Republican state legislator Patricia Morgan, who lists her occupation as "financial advisor."
What’s at stake: Whitehouse, 68, a former U.S. Attorney and Rhode Island attorney general, has been in the Senate since 2007, after he ousted Republican Lincoln Chafee. He is known for warning about the perils of climate change and "dark money" in campaign finances. Whitehouse was named Senate Budget Committee chair last year and turned much of its focus toward climate issues. More recently, he’s been one of the louder voices in Washington on term limits for the U.S. Supreme Court. Morgan is a former state Republican chair, House minority leader – and unsuccessful 2018 primary candidate for governor – who has served in the legislature off and on for 12 years. She has attacked Whitehouse for supporting President Joe Biden on immigration and federal spending, among other issues. In announcing her candidacy, she took aim at inflation, the economy and "massive and wasteful federal spending."
The race: Ballot Question 1
What's on the ballot: Question 1 will determine whether there will be a constitutional convention
What’s at stake: If voters approve Question 1 on Nov. 5 there will be an election to choose 75 delegates who will meet at a time and place to be determined to recommend amendments to the state Constitution that would be put up for approval at another statewide election. The last time voters called for a convention was 1984, and past conventions have taken on many shapes and sizes, from the 1973 convening that lasted a month to the 1964 affair that lasted four years. The last one cost taxpayers $891,000, or about $2.5 million in today's money.
— Providence Journal, USA TODAY NETWORK
South Carolina
The race: Proposed constitutional amendment on voting
What’s on the ballot: South Carolina voters will see a proposed amendment to section 4 of Article II of the state Constitution reading “Must Section 4, Article II of the Constitution of this State, relating to voter qualifications, be amended so as to provide that only a citizen of the United States and of this State of the age of eighteen and upwards who is properly registered is entitled to vote as provided by law?”
What’s at stake: The proposed change would alter one word of the state Constitution to have it read “only a citizen of the United States and of this State of the age of eighteen and upwards who is properly registered is entitled to vote as provided by law.” Although an investigation found no noncitizens were voting in the state’s elections, lawmakers call the initiative a “belt and suspenders” approach to ensure there is no way South Carolina’s Supreme Court could rule noncitizens can vote in the elections. Critics of the proposal say this is a solution to a non-problem and could lead to future restrictions in voting.
The race: 4th Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Kathryn Harvey is looking to unseat GOP incumbent William Timmons. Timmons almost lost to his primary challenger Adam Morgan in June and only secured a win by a little over 2,200 votes.
What’s at stake: Though the Upstate is an area of South Carolina with a GOP stronghold, Harvey outraised Timmons. Harvey brought in $268,393 and Timmons raised $88,609. Supporters argue this shows Harvey has a chance to claim the seat in Congress. But Timmons has also been in key swing states campaigning for Trump and suspended campaign activity to focus on recovery after Hurricane Helene trampled the district.
The race: State Senate District 41
Who is running: State Rep. Matt Leber, R-Charleston, unseated Sen. Sandy Senn, one of three GOP “Sister Senators” who blocked a near-total abortion ban in 2023, in the June primaries earlier this year. Rita Adkins is the Democratic nominee in the race.
What's at stake: All three GOP Sister Senators were ousted this year. Charleston’s State Senate District 41 was won by the GOP in 2020 by 378 votes, meaning the race could be close this year.
— Savannah Moss, The Greenville News, USA TODAY NETWORK
South Dakota
The race: Amendment G
What’s on the ballot: Amendment G would establish a constitutional right to abortion and outlines a legal framework for regulating abortions.
What’s at stake: South Dakota banned abortion, except "to preserve life of [a] pregnant female," after a 2005 trigger law went into effect when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. The law did not allow for exceptions in the case of rape or incest while also making it a class 6 felony to administer or procure an abortion for someone. South Dakotans have a history of voting to repeal abortion bans and turning down proposed prohibitions. Amendment G would allow pregnant women to obtain an abortion through the first trimester, or first three months of pregnancy. The state would not be allowed to implement regulations on "a pregnant woman's abortion decision" nor on the carrying out of an abortion during this stage of pregnancy. The state would be allowed to impose limited regulations on abortion during the second trimester, but "only in ways that are reasonably related to the physical health of the pregnant woman." The state would be allowed to regulate or prohibit abortions in the third trimester, except if the life and health of the mother is threatened. Amendment G would supersede the 2005 abortion ban if enshrined into the state's constitution.
— Dominik Dausch, Argus Leader, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: Initiated Measure 29
What's on the ballot: If passed, the measure would allow those aged 21 and older to “possess, grow, ingest and distribute marijuana or marijuana paraphernalia,” according to Attorney General Marty Jackley’s explanation.
What’s at stake: Proponents say IM-29 is a “common-sense policy” that would boost the state’s revenue with licensed businesses as opposed to black market sales and allow law enforcement to eliminate prosecuting non-violent marijuana offenses to focus on “real crime.” Voters originally opted for and passed the legalization of marijuana in 2020. But the measure was challenged by Republican Gov. Kristi Noem and two law enforcement officers. Ultimately, it was extinguished in 2021 by the South Dakota Supreme Court, citing the ballot measure at the time violated the state Constitution’s requirement that amendments do not encompass more than one subject.
— Vanessa Bender, Argus Leader
The race: Initiated Measure 28
What’s on the ballot: If enacted by voters, the measure would prohibit South Dakota "from collecting sales or use tax on anything sold for human consumption."
What’s at stake: South Dakota is one of only two states that tax groceries at the maximum allowable rate without any tax credits — a status that some, most recently Gov. Kristi Noem, have tried to change to no avail. Proponents of the measure say it's a long-needed respite for low-income families from an "unfair" tax on groceries in the state. Opponents call it an "irresponsible" move that — especially because of confusing definitions — could strain local communities' funding and potentially lead to a state income tax.
— Trevor Mitchell, Argus Leader, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: Referred Law 21
What’s on the ballot: The law would enable carbon pipeline developers in general to install pipeline infrastructure without having to work around restrictive zoning and land use rules and ordinances put in place by townships and counties.
What’s at stake: The law would also codify various protections for South Dakota's rural landowners whose fields and properties would be crossed by a hazardous liquid pipeline, but opponents of the referred law argue it cancels out local governance and does little to protect landowners who would be impacted by a pipeline. The passage of this law, pending the outcome of the November vote, has implications for Summit Carbon Solutions, an Iowa carbon dioxide pipeline developer. The company plans to build an $8 billion, 2,500-mile carbon pipeline across South Dakota and the Midwest. Summit Carbon's pipeline network would be the largest of its kind in the U.S., with the specific purpose of capturing liquified carbon dioxide as a waste byproduct from Corn Belt ethanol plants.
— Dominik Dausch, Argus Leader, USA TODAY NETWORK
Tennessee
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is seeking a second six-year term against state Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, whose political profile shot to national prominence last year amid gun control protests and the Tennessee Three expulsion hearings.
What's at stake: Blackburn is the favorite in what has become a solidly red state with low voter turnout. No Democrat has won statewide since 2006, and only one Democrat has cracked 40% of the vote since then. A Johnson win is a long shot, but many will be watching whether Johnson can capitalize on the gun safety reform energy to improve Democratic margins and possibly illuminate a path forward for progressives in future election cycles in Tennessee in future cycles.
— Melissa Brown, The Tennessean, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: Tennessee’s House District 75
Who is running: First-time candidate Allie Phillips is running a well-funded campaign against incumbent Rep. Jeff Burkhart, R-Clarksville, in a vulnerable district for the Republican supermajority.
What's at stake: Tennessee Democrats are eager for any chance to flip a seat to their caucus, though Democrats are unlikely to pose a serious threat to the GOP supermajority this cycle. But the House District 75 race could also emerge as a potential bellwether on reproductive and abortion rights as a winnable issue in the first election cycle since Tennessee began enforcing its near-total abortion ban. Phillips became an outspoken critic of Tennessee’s law after she was unable to get medical termination for a dangerous pregnancy in the state, and she later joined an ongoing lawsuit challenging the law.
— Melissa Brown, The Tennessean, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: Tennessee House District 97
Who is running: Democrat Jesse Huseth is challenging incumbent Rep. John Gillespie, R-Memphis, in the Shelby County district that has turned increasingly purple in recent election cycles.
What's at stake: Democrats aren’t expecting to reduce the GOP caucus to even a simple majority this cycle, but they are eyeing a handful of competitive seats that could energize their voter base and set the stage for 2026 battles. In 2022, Republican lawmakers effectively redistricted most of the state, clinching voter bases where they needed them to retain control. But redistricting did little to shore up support for Gillespie in Shelby County, home to the Democratic stronghold of Memphis. Meanwhile, Republican leaders such as House Speaker Cameron Sexton, R-Crossville, have set their sights on the county after pointed attacks on Nashville ended in multiple court losses. Sexton and others continue to lash out at the Shelby County district attorney and threaten to withhold tax revenue from the city over a non-binding referendum asking voters to weigh in on gun safety reforms. A Democratic win in District 97 wouldn’t materially affect the GOP supermajority in Nashville, but it could intensify the GOP-Shelby County battle.
— Melissa Brown, The Tennessean, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: A transit referendum in Nashville
What’s on the ballot: The $3.1 billion “Choose How You Move” plan would levy a half-cent sales tax increase to fund transit projects such as doubling cross town bus routes, extend bus service routes and connect existing bus transit centers to each other, streamlining travel across capital of Tennessee.
What's at stake: Nashville Mayor Freddie O’Connell tapped the referendum as his signature issue for his first year in office, setting a tight deadline to get it before voters in a presidential year. The plan would include new park-and-ride facilities, 86 miles of sidewalk improvements and dozens of miles of upgraded road corridors, among other features. O’Connell has positioned the referendum as the city’s “last best chance” to address the city’s transit infrastructure, which in many ways lags behind similar cities in the U.S. In 2018, Nashville voters resoundingly voted against a $5.4 billion transit referendum, which carried an overall price tag of $9 billion. The main draw of the 2018 plan was light rail, though, which drew criticism that the plan did not do enough to serve the city’s existing transit users. O’Connell’s slimmer plan focuses on bus routes, sidewalks and improving traffic signals, and the new plan has already attracted support from some notable 2018 opponents.
— Melissa Brown, The Tennessean, USA TODAY NETWORK
Texas
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Republican Ted Cruz is seeking his third term against Democrat Colin Allred, a member of Congress from Dallas who is foregoing a reelection effort to challenge the highly polarizing incumbent.
What's at stake: Cruz was able to fend off a spirited challenge from Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018, winning by only 2.6 percentage points in state where Democrats have not elected a U.S. senator since 1988. Allred is looking to hold together the Democratic base while broadening his appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. Cruz has sought to soften his hard-right image by appealing to Democrats concerned about border security and by aligning himself closely with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. An Allred upset would boost Democratic chances for holding control of the Senate.
— John C. Moritz, Austin American-Statesman, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 34th Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, a four-term incumbent, is in a rematch with Republican former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores in a district that stretches from the Rio Grande north along the Gulf of Mexico through several counties of South Texas farm and ranch land.
What's at stake: South Texas has long been a Democratic stronghold, but Flores managed to win a special election by 2,100 votes in June 2022 to replace Democrat Filemon Vela, who retired. Gonzalez had represented District 15, but he switched to District 34 after it was redrawn for the 2022 general election. He defeated Flores by more than 11,000 votes. Republicans have been slowly making inroads into South Texas and this district could be a bellwether in that effort.
— John C. Moritz, Austin American-Statesman, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 28th Congressional District
Who is running: Henry Cuellar, a 20-year congressional veteran who is considered among the most conservative Democrats in the U.S. House, is being challenged by Republican retired naval officer Jay Furman for district anchored by the border city of Laredo.
What's at stake: Cuellar, a proven vote-getter who was elected to the Texas House eight times before winning his first election to Congress in 2004, was made vulnerable after a federal indictment in May accused him and his wife of accepting $600,000 in bribes and money laundering. The Justice Department alleges that the money had come from Azerbaijan’s state-operated oil and gas company. The Cuellars have insisted they are innocent of the charges, but Furman has run late-campaign ads accusing Cuella of using his office “to enrich himself and empower cartels.”
— John C. Moritz, Austin American-Statesman, USA TODAY NETWORK
Utah
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich, a professional skier and environmental activist, is facing off against Republican U.S. Rep. John Curtis in an open seat. Incumbent Sen. Mitt Romney announced last year he wasn’t running for reelection.
What’s at stake: Utah is a conservative state but Democrats aren’t conceding the seat even in the face of relatively steep odds. Romney, a moderate Republican, is retiring amid pushback from the hard-right wing of the party over his criticism of former President Donald Trump. His replacement, whether it’s Gleich or the Curtis, who is more conservative than Romney but not a hardliner, will make a difference in the ideological tilt of the Republican caucus in the Senate.
The race: Utah House District 10
Who is running: Democratic incumbent Rosemary Lesser is defending her seat against Republican challenger Jill Koford in a rematch of 2022.
What’s at stake: Lesser has been serving in the Utah House since being elected in 2020. District 10 saw one of the closest elections in the state House in her last run in 2022, also against Koford, which Lesser won by 500 votes, a margin of less than 5 points. Holding onto this seat will be important for Democrats to maintain a voice in the chamber, which is dominated by Republicans by more than four-to-one.
The race: Governor
Who is running: Incumbent Republican Gov. Spencer Cox is defending his seat against Democratic challenger Brian King.
What’s at stake: Independent polling from early September shows Cox ahead by more than two-to-one. But a poll from September sponsored by King’s campaign found that, when unaffiliated write-in candidate Phil Lyman is factored in, King is only 11 points behind, 24% to Cox’s 35% and Lyman’s 19%. While Cox is widely considered a safe favorite, this might signal a more competitive race than some might have expected. Lyman had won the GOP endorsement at the state Republican Convention in April but lost in the primary elections in June. He filed a failed state Supreme Court challenge to get onto the ballot as a Republican.
— George Russell, USA TODAY NETWORK
Vermont
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Incumbent independent Bernie Sanders is seeking his fourth term, and faces Republican Gerald Malloy, fellow independent Steve Berry, Libertarian Matt Hill as well as EPIC Party candidate Mark Stewart Greenstein and Green Mountain Peace & Justice Party candidate Justin Schoville.
What’s at stake: Sanders, who twice sought the Democratic nomination for president, is the odds-on favorite in this race. Jim Jeffords, who retired in 2007, was the last Republican to represent Vermont in the Senate. The GOP has had a tough time in this deep-blue state with a progressive tint, with Democrats dominating both houses of the legislature as well as holding all statewide offices except governor.
The race: U.S. House
Who is running: Incumbent Democrat Becca Balint is seeking her second term, and faces Republican and Libertarian Mark Coester, Green Mountain Peace & Justice Party candidate Jessy Diamondstone and Independent Adam Ortiz.
What's at stake: In 2022, Balint, in her first outing as a statewide candidate, won the seat with 60.45% of the vote to become the first woman to represent Vermont in Congress. Coester garnered just 0.44% of the vote when he ran for the U.S. Senate as an independent in 2022, when Democrat Peter Welch successfully sought the seat long held by Sen. Patrick Leahy who retired.
The race: Governor
Who is running: Republican Phil Scott is seeking his fifth term governor, and faces Democrat-Progressive Esther Charlestin, Green Mountain Peace & Justice candidate June Goodband and independents Kevin Hoyt and Eli "Poa" Mutino.
What's at stake: Scott is an anomaly in this deep-blue state: a Republican in a statewide office. He remains deeply popular in the state. In April, Morning Consult tagged him as the most popular governor in the country. Charlestin, who has both the Democratic and Progressive nomination, is making her first bid for statewide office. She was previously a member of the Middlebury Selectboard. Charlestin is the first Black woman in Vermont to win a major party gubernatorial nomination.
The race: Lieutenant Governor
Who is running: Democrat-Progressive David Zuckerman is seeking his fourth term as lieutenant governor and faces Republican John S. Rodgers and Green Mountain Peace & Justice candidate Ian Diamondstone.
What's at stake: Zuckerman is perhaps the most vulnerable of the Democratic incumbents in a statewide office. In 2022, when the other successful party compatriots won at least 60% of the voter, Zuckerman eked out 51.41%. Rodgers formerly served as a Democratic state senator and state representative from Glover, positions he held for a total of 16 years. in 2018, he made a write-in bid for the Democratic nomination for governor.
— Burlington Free Press, USA TODAY NETWORK
Virginia
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine is seeking reelection to his third term in the U.S. Senate. Republican nominee and retired Navy Capt. Hung Cao is seeking to unseat Kaine.
What’s at stake: Kaine is ahead of Cao in the polls by more than 10 points and the Cook Political Report has rated Kaine’s seat as “solid Democrat.” But Cao has made waves attempting to break the blue stranglehold, taking swipes at the Democratic positions on diversity, equity and inclusion and promoting Trump’s agenda, including tariffs, in a state with overwhelmingly strong Republican districts.
— Elizabeth Beyer and Kevin Hogan, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: The one-term incumbent, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, is seeking to defend her seat from her Democratic challenger, Missy Cotter Smasal. Cook Political Report has rated this race as “leans Republican” but Democrats are keen to flip the seat.
What’s at stake: The district is one of two in the state that are considered competitive and could help to determine the control of the U.S. House. Both candidates are Navy veterans seeking to represent a southern Virginia coastal district that includes military bases and a population with a high percentage of active-duty members along with veterans.
— Elizabeth Beyer, USA TODAY NETWORK
The race: 7th Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson are both seeking the open seat, currently held by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger announced in late 2023 that she would not seek reelection to Congress and is instead running for governor in 2025.
What’s at stake: It's anticipated to be the closest race for Congress in Virginia. Inside Elections moved the district to a “toss up,” and the Cook Political Report moved the district from “leans Democrat” to “Democrat toss-up.” Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have named this district as one of interest when seeking the House majority.
— Elizabeth Beyer, USA TODAY NETWORK
Washington
The race: 3rd Congressional District
Who is running: Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running for reelection in a Republican-leaning district that she narrowly won in 2022. It’s a rematch against Republican Joe Kent, a veteran who ousted the district’s six-term Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in 2022 after she was one of the few GOP votes for Donald Trump’s impeachment.
What’s at stake: This district, in the southwest corner of the state, had been reliably Republican until Gluesenkamp Perez, an auto body shop owner who ran on a moderate, blue-collar image, won by just more than 2,000 votes in 2022. Polls show the race as essentially tied in a district where Trump has shown consistent leads in polling, making it a district where Republicans could gain back a House seat.
The race: Initiative 2117, repealing the Climate Commitment Act
What's on the ballot: A citizen-sponsored initiative to the Legislature, one of four that Washington voters will decide, would undo a piece of legislation passed by the state’s Democratic majority. The Climate Commitment Act created a cap-and-pay system on industrial polluters, with the revenue directed to all kinds of infrastructure projects around the state, intended to deal with climate change and related issues, like transportation. Critics say the plan has been too costly to residents, mainly by driving up the price of gas.
What’s at stake: If voters approve the initiative, the Climate Commitment Act would be repealed and an estimated $3.8 billion in state revenue that comes from carbon allowance auctions would go away, and eliminate $1.7 billion in planned expenditures. It would also bar state agencies from creating a market for carbon allowances to be traded or taxed, which is designed to lower emissions, and eliminate certain air quality programs in Washington state.
— David Nelson, USA TODAY NETWORK
West Virginia
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Republican Jim Justice, the current governor of West Virginia, is running against Democrat Glenn Elliot, the previous mayor of Wheeling. Also on the ballot is Libertarian candidate David Moran. All three candidates are vying to fill the open seat left by Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent who is not seeking reelection.
What’s at stake: Democrats are seeking to keep control of the Senate while Republicans are looking to flip it in their favor. Whoever wins the race will fill the gap left by Manchin and would give the Democratic or Republican Party an extra member in the Senate.
The race: Secretary of State
Who is running: Republican Kris Warner is facing off against Democrat Thornton Cooper.
What’s at stake: Secretaries of state play a key role in overseeing the election administration process and organizing how ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections are administered. Although it is likely that Warner will win the race in deep red West Virginia, he has not previously acknowledged that the 2020 election results were legitimate. Both candidates have made election integrity a big part of their campaigns.
The race: 2nd Congressional District
Who is running: Democrat Steven Wendelin is facing off against Republican Riley Moore.
What’s at stake: This seat is open after Republican incumbent Alexander Mooney decided to pursue a Senate bid. The last time a Democrat held the seat was in 2001. If Wendelin wins, he would be the first Democrat in over a decade to hold the seat, and his victory would provide an extra boost for Democrats to take back control of the House. If Moore wins, it would help Republicans preserve their majority in the House.
The race: Governor
Who is running: Democrat Steve Williams and Republican Patrick Morrisey. Third-party candidates on the ballot include S. Marshall Wilson, Erika Kolenich and Chase Linko-Looper.
What’s at stake: This seat is open after Republican incumbent Gov. Jim Justice decided to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. The last time the state had a Democratic governor was in 2017. If Williams wins, he would flip control of the governor’s position, helping break the trifecta in the state. If Morrisey wins, he would help preserve the trifecta of GOP dominance in the state.
— Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY
Wisconsin
The race: U.S. Senate
Who is running: Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seeking her third term in the U.S. Senate. The Republican challenger, Eric Hovde, is a banking mogul and real estate executive making his second run for Senate in Wisconsin.
What’s at stake: The Senate race in Wisconsin has moved into Cook Political Report’s toss-up category and will help determine which party takes control of the Senate. Hovde and Baldwin are on opposite sides on whether to end the filibuster: Hovde wants to keep it, while Baldwin supports changing the process so Democrats can protect access to abortion. Hovde, who says the federal debt is one of his top issues, has called for closing the federal Department of Education and suggested raising the Social Security eligibility age for those under 40. Baldwin has cited her work on the Affordable Care Act and is endorsed by the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation, the first Democrat in 20 years to receive the endorsement.
The race: Senate District 8
Who is running: Republican state Sen. Duey Stroebel, who is running in a new district after Wisconsin’s legislative maps were redrawn this spring, faces Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin, an attorney, who narrowly lost a special election last year.
What’s at stake: Wisconsin’s new legislative maps give Democrats a chance at gaining more seats in the state Legislature, and possibly flipping the state Assembly. But this Senate race is among the most-watched because of the sheer spending: It’s on track to cost $3 million, the most expensive race in state legislative history. The district is partly in Ozaukee County, one of the Republican “WOW” counties that is now shifting Democratic faster than any other county in the state. Both support tax relief but disagree on issues like abortion, education funding and PFAS.
The race: Eligibility to Vote Referendum
What’s on the ballot: The referendum asks if the language in the state constitution should be changed from “every” citizen can vote to “only” citizens can vote. Seven other states have similar questions on the ballot. Republicans want to prevent Wisconsin municipalities from allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections in the future, while Democrats worry the question promotes the false perception that noncitizens vote fraudulently, which is extremely rare.
What’s at stake: Wisconsinites have seen five referendum questions this year, all placed on the ballot by Republicans as a roundabout to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ veto. Voters approved two earlier this year that prevent clerks from accepting outside funding, largely a reaction to “Zuckerbucks” in 2020. But voters rejected two questions in August that would have limited the power of the governor to spend federal funds, a victory for state Democrats who messaged heavily on the measure. If the November referendum passes, it would have little effect, because nowhere in Wisconsin currently allows noncitizens to vote in local elections. With less attention on the November measure, it will be interesting to watch whether the result correlates with Democratic or Republican turnout, especially since referendums had mixed results earlier this year.
— Hope Karnopp, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, USA TODAY NETWORK
Wyoming
The race: Property tax reform
What's on the ballot: A constitutional amendment on property taxes
What's at stake: Property tax reform is one of the biggest issues in Cowboy State politics at the moment, with housing costs rising approximately 30% statewide between 2017 and 2023, according to the Wyoming Economic Analysis division. The constitutional amendment looks to reclassify “residential real property” as a separate class, and is the result of a bill from the 2023 legislative session. Residential property is currently in the same tax category as industrial and commercial property, which serves as a barrier to changes on how homes in Wyoming are taxed.
The race: Wyoming House District 11
Who is running: Republican Rep. Jared Olsen’s House seat came into play when he announced his candidacy for Wyoming state Senate. Former legislator and Democrat Sara Burlingame, director of the state’s best known LGBTQ-focused nonprofit, Wyoming Equality, will square off against newcomer Jacob Wasserburger, who defeated Seth Ulvestad in Wyoming’s August primary.
What’s at stake: Wyoming’s deep-red 93 seat legislature currently boasts seven Democrats, and the conservative makeup of the Cowboy State offers few chances to pick up seats. The August primary pushed the state further to the right and toward the control of its growing Freedom Caucus. Cheyenne, the state capital, is something of a wildcard, with some moderate Republicans squeaking out primary victories, and others falling to further-right challengers. The unpredictability might offer Burlingame, a well-known name in Wyoming politics, the chance to return to the Capitol as a rare liberal voice.
The race: Wyoming House District 33
Who is running: Republican incumbent Sarah Penn, a member of the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, will face off against Democratic challenger Ivan Posey, a longtime member of the Eastern Shoshone Business Council. Penn clinched the spot by unseating Northern Arapaho legislator Andi Lebeau in 2022.
What’s at stake: House District 33 encompasses much of Wyoming’s Wind River Indian Reservation, which is home to the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho nations. With the incoming exit of Navajo State Senator Affie Ellis (R-Cheyenne), a loss from Posey, who has both Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho ancestry, would mean no Indigenous representation in the Wyoming legislature. Penn is a member of Wyoming’s growing far right, was motivated into public service by covid restrictions, and holds hardline conservative stances on issues from abortion to DEI programming. Posey bills himself as a “conservative Democrat,” and, citing the unique issues facing Native Americans today, says that it is vital the reservation is represented by someone with deep knowledge of its communities.
— Cy Neff, USA TODAY NETWORK
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election 2024: The key races to watch in all 50 states