Government shutdown on Wednesday: Full recap of news on the odds of a shutdown

Editor's note: This page is the news of a potential government shutdown from Wednesday, Sept. 27. For live updates on the latest news on the odds of a government shutdown, read our live updates for Thursday, Sept. 28.

This story has been corrected to clarify the U.S. Postal Service is not affected by a possible government shutdown and workers would be paid normally during a government shutdown.

WASHINGTON?Congress has three days to cut a deal and prevent a government shutdown that would impact millions of Americans.

As of Wednesday morning, lawmakers have made little progress towards averting a crisis that would hit homes across the country Oct. 1.

While it wouldn't be as far reaching as the debt ceiling threat in late May, a shutdown would deeply impact Americans who need the most help: newborns who rely on WIC for infant formula, children who need nutrition assistance, low-income families who rely on Head Start programs for preschool, college students who receive federal grants to pay for their education, people who receive food stamps and more.

As lawmakers continue to fight on Capitol Hill, the country they serve is bracing for a government shutdown that would delay and disrupt American life.

Here’s the latest on the government shutdown fight, where lawmakers are and how it affects you.

How does the government shutdown affect me?

Millions of Americans would be impacted by a government shutdown.

Federal workers would be furloughed without pay. "Essential" federal workers, such as those who work for the Federal Aviation Administration, would work without pay ? but would receive backpay once a shutdown ends. Numerous subcontractors would be out of work and would not receive backpay.

The impact would stretch far beyond federal workers though. It would also be felt in millions of homes across America.

Here are some ways a government shutdown would impact your family:

• Funding for WIC ? the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children ? would stop immediately

• Food stamp benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would remain intact in October but could be impacted after that

• Children from low-income families would lose access to Head Start preschool programs

• College students could see delays in their student loans

• The Food and Drug Administration would delay nonessential food safety inspections

• The Occupational Safety and Health Administration would limit its work

• Travelers could see delays with receiving passports

• National parks could close

• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) would have no money for disaster relief

?Candy Woodall

U.S. Postal Service not affected by a possible government shutdown

The Postal Service is an independent entity generally funded by the sale of its products and services ? not tax dollars ? and it will not be impacted by a government shutdown, USPS said in a statement. Because it's not impacted, employees will be paid normally.

"Postal Service operations will not be interrupted in the event of a government shutdown, and all Post Offices will remain open for business as usual," the statement said.

?Candy Woodall

Biden says government shutdown not ‘inevitable,’ urges House Republicans ‘do their job’

President Joe Biden said Americans need House Republicans to “do their job” as he held out hope Wednesday that a government shutdown can be avoided before the end-of-week deadline for congressional action.

“I don’t think anything is inevitable in politics,” Biden said, speaking in San Francisco at the president’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, which recommends federal policy on science and technology.

Biden said a government shutdown would impact “vital work in science and health” including cancer research and food-safety policies.

“The American people need our Republican friends in the House of Representatives to do their job: Fund the government,” Biden said.

– Joey Garrison

Will military get paid in October?

Military pay for millions of active-duty service members and reservists could dry up with a government shutdown – a major difference between the current threatened shutdown and previous recent suspensions of non-essential spending.

“Military personnel will not be paid until such time as Congress appropriates funds available to compensate them for this period of service,” the Defense Department said in a September memo to Pentagon leaders preparing for a potential lapse in spending.

But the department said personnel would continue working regardless. Federal workers are traditionally reimbursed for lapses in funding once Congress agrees to resume spending, but the lapse in paychecks can be difficult for staffers without savings.

“Military personnel on active duty, including reserve component personnel on Federal active duty, will continue to report for duty and carry out assigned duties,” the department said in a Sept. 12 announcement in preparation for a shutdown.

The government has about 1.3 million active-duty service members and 800,000 reservists.

?Bart Jansen

Will a government shutdown affect flights?

The deepest impact would not be on your flight or cruise.

Funding to agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration, Transportation Security Administration and Customs and Border Protection would be on hold. However, the agents who you typically interact with at airports and seaports, and the controllers who oversee your flights are considered essential and will be working without pay during the shutdown.

Impacts on those agencies have more to do with things like hiring and training. All the crucial safety functions like inspections and air traffic control continue.

Consular operations in the U.S. and internationally will also continue normally “as long as there are sufficient fees” collected to support them, according to the most recent guidance from the State Department. “This includes passports, visas, and assisting U.S. citizens abroad.”

There could be economic repercussions, though. A government shutdown is estimated to cost the country's travel economy as much as $140 million per day, according to an analysis for the U.S. Travel Association.

? Zach Wichter and Nathan Diller

Would a government shutdown affect Social Security?

Social Security recipients will continue to receive checks in the event of a government shutdown and Medicare benefits will not be interrupted.

However, employees in the Social Security Administration are likely to be furloughed and government food assistance benefits could see delay.

A few services that are not directly related to Social Security payment benefits and direct-service operations would be temporarily suspended.

? Marina Pitofsky and Sudiksha Kochi

Will a government shutdown affect food stamps and WIC?

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as SNAP, will continue for at least the month of October, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said in a press briefing Monday. But he warned that “if the shutdown were to extend longer than that, there would be some serious consequences to SNAP.”

Funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children ? better known as WIC ? will stop “immediately when the shutdown occurs,” he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a contingency fund that may extend the program for a day or two, and some states may have leftover WIC benefits not spent that could extend the program for a week or so in that state.

“But the vast majority of WIC participants would see an immediate reduction and elimination of those benefits, which means the nutrition assistance that’s provided would not be available,” Vilsack said.

?Sudiksha Kochi

What happens to the IRS in a shutdown?

The IRS may have to partially close starting this weekend if there is a government shutdown.

While the agency initially said it would be able to continue operations and pay employees through a shutdown, the IRS reversed course last week, telling the National Treasury Employees their new contingency plan would include some furloughs.

Millions of Americans are still waiting for their tax refunds from the last filing season, and there is concern a shutdown and IRS closure would escalate this backlog.

? Savannah Kuchar

What is the deadline for the government shutdown?

The U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 1 if lawmakers don't pass a continuing resolution or a federal budget by Sept. 30.

The continuing resolution, a stopgap measure that would temporarily fund the government while lawmakers work to pass a comprehensive budget, would prevent a shutdown from occurring on Oct. 1.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said the House will vote Friday on a continuing resolution, but it's unclear if it has enough votes to pass.

?Sudiksha Kochi

Does a government shutdown affect state employees?

A shutdown could impact state employees whose employers depend on federal funds to operate and must shut down certain activities that the government has deemed non-necessary.

In this case, certain state employees could be furloughed until a shutdown passes.

But state employees who receive salaries from private employers who do not rely on federal funds wouldn’t necessarily be impacted.

-Sudiksha Kochi

How does a government shutdown affect the stock market?

While a potential shutdown isn’t expected to have much of an impact on the stock market, experts say it has contributed to the S&P 500's more than 5% dip so far this month, to 4,275.

It's “one of the reasons why you've seen the market weaken,” according to Marc Zabicki, chief investment officer of LPL Financial. But after the potential shutdown begins, “I don't know that you're going to get any stark reaction from asset markets come Oct. 2 next week. I think it's already largely been built into prices.”

While the looming shutdown is contributing to the recent market dip, it’s not the only driver.

September is also a historically weak month for stocks, according to Jeffrey A. Hirsch, CEO of Hirsch Holdings and editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Meanwhile, there are a "lot of other items going on" that are affecting the market, including higher interest rates, looming student loan payments, the United Auto Workers strike, rising oil prices and more, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices

“We're in a very volatile time now," Silverblatt said.

There have been six partial or full government shutdowns since 1990. While some were resolved in less than a week, the most recent in late 2018 and early 2019 lasted over one month.

When looking at the S&P 500’s median performance one month after the shutdown compared with one month prior, the benchmark gained a median of 5.5% with positive returns five out of six times, according to a Wednesday note from Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey.

“Like the people that occupy the chambers of Congress, past shutdowns have been a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing,” the note reads.

In other words, the looming shutdown is "more of a headline event than a bottom-line event," according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. Past shutdowns, he said, left "angered tourists more than disappointed traders."

A Sept. 13 Wells Fargo report led by global strategist Gery Schollberg and analyst Jennifer Timmerman notes that while the S&P 500 tends to sag before and through the early part of longer shutdowns, “it did not take long for stocks to regain composure after the government reopened in each instance.”

“This time, however, a shutdown risks aggravating other potential body blows to the economy … leaving stocks more exposed to volatility and to extended weakness.”

The report's authors said they believe a shutdown, if it does occur, has the potential to last at least a few weeks because of hardened positions in an increasingly polarized Congress.

"The longer it goes, the more difficult it will become economically and also from an asset market perspective," Zabicki of LPL said, adding that Washington's polarization "increases the risk that something could go wrong."

However, he said recent history shows that "these are typically not long-lasting events.”

? Bailey Schulz and Daniel de Vise

What is a government shutdown?

A government shutdown means all federal agencies and services officials don’t deem “essential” have to stop their work and close their doors.

Some of those essential services include the U.S. Postal Service delivering mail and people receiving Medicare and Social Security benefits. Those will continue whether or not the government shuts down.

But so-called “non-essential” work can still have significant impacts for federal employees and Americans across the country. Thousands of federal workers would be furloughed, government food assistance benefits could be delayed and some food safety inspections could also be put on pause.

– Marina Pitofsky  

What is the meaning of furloughed?

A furlough occurs when an employee is required to take a mandatory and temporary unpaid leave of absence from their work. An employer can furlough employees to cut back costs or manage operations during a potential government shutdown.

A furlough is different from a layoff, which are permanent terminations in which employees can’t return back to work.

-Sudiksha Kochi

When would a government shutdown start?

A government shutdown would start Sunday if lawmakers cannot pass a federal budget or stopgap measure by Sept. 30.

The stopgap, known as a continuing resolution, would prevent an Oct. 1 shutdown by temporarily extending government funding.

?Savannah Kuchar

'Are we going to shut down this weekend? I believe we will'

A government shutdown, some Republicans say, is inevitable at this point given the time crunch Congress is facing and the gridlock between lawmakers.

McCarthy has committed to voting Friday on a stopgap bill to keep the government open, but even if House Republicans pass it along party lines, it’s a non-starter with the Democratic-controlled Senate.

When asked if the two chambers could reconcile their differences ahead of the Sept. 30 funding deadline, Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., a senior appropriator, told reporters, “We all know the answer to that: No, there’s not enough time.”

“Are we going to shut down this weekend? I believe we will and I think conventional wisdom should tell you that,” Womack added. He said he hopes lawmakers could have an “epiphany” and avert a shutdown in the waning days.

? Ken Tran

Senate blames fractured House GOP caucus for looming government shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on the Senate floor Wednesday morning that McCarthy is aiming for a government shutdown by adhering to ultraconservatives in his party.

He encouraged the House speaker to work in a bipartisan way to pass a stopgap measure in the lower chamber and said the California lawmaker has “twisted himself into pretzels” to “avoid his responsibility of governing.”

“Every bill House Republicans have pushed has been partisan. Every C.R. has been aimed at the hard right and every path they’ve pursued to date will inevitably lead to a shutdown,” Schumer said.

McConnell echoed Schumer’s call for bipartisanship, saying on the Senate floor Wednesday that shutting down the government “isn’t an effective way to make a point." For Congress to move forward on unresolved funding priorities, they must avert a shutdown, he said.

? Rachel Looker

What's the probability of a government shutdown?

Hold off on placing any bets. If lawmakers in the House and Senate can reach a compromise by Sept. 30 on a dozen bills that would fund the government, a shutdown is off the table. Congress could also pass a temporary measure to keep the government funded, known as a continuing resolution.

But both of those options are unlikely as of Wednesday afternoon. Lawmakers haven’t agreed on all 12 bills they would need to pass, and a group of conservative House Republicans have insisted on hardline spending cuts that have no chance of passing in the Senate, which is currently controlled by Democrats.

Last week, House Democrats and moderate Republicans appeared to start working on a fallback plan, but it’s not clear the rare bipartisan push would receive enough support to dodge a shutdown.

– Marina Pitofsky

What are the 12 appropriation bills?

In order to fund the government, lawmakers must pass 12 appropriations bills – each tailored to a specific government function.

The appropriations bills are handled by their respective subcommittees in both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees. For example, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense steers the Defense spending bill, which provides funding for the Department of Defense and other related activities.

In previous years, Congress passed an “omnibus” package – a massive bill combining all 12 appropriations bills into one piece of legislation. The change this year is among the concessions House Speaker Kevin McCarthy made to hardline conservatives in his bid for the job in January when he promised to pass all 12 bills separately.

Hard-right lawmakers have argued a vote on each bill would allow for more transparency in the spending process. But with three days left before a government shutdown, it is virtually impossible for Congress to pass all 12 bills in time considering the House has only passed one of the 12 and the Senate hasn't passed any.

The only likely resolution to avert a shutdown is a short-term stopgap measure to keep the government open and buy lawmakers more time to move through the appropriations process.

? Ken Tran

Latest updates on the government shutdown

GOP lawmakers emerged from a closed-door weekly conference meeting Wednesday, deriding the Senate’s version of a temporary funding bill for its lack of border security provisions. It's the major sticking point for most House Republicans in the government shutdown fight who say any funding measure must include border security language.

“The Senate is going to have to realize that the House is not going to move something that doesn't have border security at its core,” Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D., a key negotiator and chair of the centrist Republican Main Street Caucus, told reporters Wednesday morning.

But House GOP requests for an aggressive border security package have almost no chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate. That's why Johnson and other Republicans are pinning the blame on Democrats for refusing to cede to their demands even though the House has been consumed by GOP infighting for the past weeks in spending negotiations.

“If they’re not willing to accept that fact, they are standing in the way of us funding this government,” Johnson said.

?Ken Tran

What would happen if the government shuts down?

In a government shutdown, all federal agencies that are not "essential" — think U.S. Postal Service, Medicare and Social Security — would stop work.

This means thousands of federal employees would be on furlough and Americans would go without government benefits such as food and housing support.

Air travel will be generally spared: Air traffic controllers and TSA agents will continue working, though without pay. Travelers may also contend with longer wait times and flight delays.

? Savannah Kuchar

How long would the government shutdown last?

Government funding is set to expire on Oct. 1. How long a potential shutdown would last depends on how soon the House and Senate are able to pass a new appropriations plan that President Joe Biden signs.

The length of past government shutdowns have varied, lasting from five days to 21 days.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-FL., said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that if the departments of Labor and Education "have to shut down for a few days as we get their appropriations in line, that’s certainly not something that is optimal.”

“But I think it’s better than continuing on the current path we are to America’s financial ruin,” Gaetz said.

?Sudiksha Kochi

How long was the last government shutdown?

The last government shutdown lasted from Dec. 22, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019. Spanning 35 days, it was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

It was also the third federal shutdown to occur during the Trump administration; the first lasted three days in January 2018, and the second lasted only a few hours in February 2018.

?Olivia Munson

Government shutdown history chart

Over the last five decades, there have been 21 federal shutdowns:

• 1976: Under President Gerald Ford. Lasted for 11 days.

• 1977: Under President Jimmy Carter. Lasted 12 days.

• 1977: Under President Carter. Lasted eight days.

• 1977: Under President Carter. Lasted eight days.

• 1978: Under President Carter. Lasted 17 days.

• 1979: Under President Carter. Lasted 11 days.

• 1981: Under President Ronald Reagan. Lasted two days.

• 1982: Under President Reagan. Lasted one day.

• 1982: Under President Reagan. Lasted three days.

• 1983: Under President Reagan. Lasted three days.

• 1984: Under President Reagan. Lasted two days.

• 1984: Under President Reagan. Lasted one day.

• 1986: Under President Reagan. Lasted one day.

• 1987: Under President Reagan. Lasted one day.

• 1990: Under George H.W. Bush. Lasted four days.

• 1995: Under President Bill Clinton. Lasted five days.

• 1996: Under President Clinton. Lasted 21 days.

• 2013: Under President Barack Obama. Lasted 17 days.

• 2018: Under President Donald Trump. Lasted three days.

• 2018: Under President Trump. Lasted several hours.

• 2019: Under Trump. Lasted 35 days.

-Olivia Munson

Why Moody's says a government shutdown could hurt U.S. credit rating

The country’s credit rating could face additional pressure if the government shuts down next week, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service.

While a short-lived shutdown would not impact government debt service payments and isn’t expected to disrupt the economy, Moody's said it would “underscore the weakness” of U.S. institutional and governance strength compared to countries with similar credit ratings.

“In particular, it would demonstrate the significant constraints that intensifying political polarization put on fiscal policymaking at a time of declining fiscal strength,” Moody's report reads.

If the potential shutdown does drag on, it would "likely be disruptive both to the US economy and financial markets," although Moody's notes that any government shutdown is more likely to be brief and concentrated in areas with a large government presence, like Washington, D.C.

? Bailey Schulz

Does Congress get paid during a shutdown?

Members of Congress will still get paid during a government shutdown. Some lawmakers however, have introduced bills in the past to withhold pay for lawmakers during a shutdown. Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., introduced legislation doing just that last Wednesday.

“I’m introducing legislation to block Member pay during a McCarthy shutdown, because it’s ridiculous that we still get paid while folks like TSA workers are asked to work without a paycheck,” Craig said in a statement.

Their staffers however, will not receive pay. Like other federal employees, Congressional staffers and aides considered essential work without pay and receive their paychecks retroactively after the shutdown ends.

? Ken Tran

Majority of Americans want Congress to prevent government shutdown: poll

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday found over 60% of Americans want Congress to compromise to avert a government shutdown.Americans polled reported they do not feel President Joe Biden or lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are looking out for Americans.According to the poll, 43% of Americans would hold Republicans most responsible for a shutdown. Others, 27%, place the blame on Biden while 21% are pointing fingers at Democrats.? Rachel Looker

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Possible government shutdown 2023: How a shutdown affects you