A government shutdown could make Trump transition 'chaotic'

WASHINGTON ? The most lasting impact of a government shutdown for Washington could be felt by President-elect Donald Trump himself as shuttered federal agencies stall the transition to a new administration on January 20, a top White House aide and legal experts said.

The massive behind-the-scenes work of shifting the federal government from Democratic to Republican control could soon grind to a halt if Congress fails to reach a deal to keep the lights on after Trump and his multi-billionaire advisor Elon Musk tanked a bipartisan budget measure on Wednesday and the House voted down a replacement Thursday night.

More: Which 38 Republicans voted against Trump's plan to keep the government running?

A government shutdown would snarl everything from security clearances to laminating the ID badges of incoming Trump administration staffers.

"There never has been a shutdown at this time. The only sure thing is that if the shutdown occurs and is prolonged, it will make the transition even more chaotic,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional scholar at Berkeley Law School, told USA TODAY.

More: Trump's agenda in trouble? What the Republican revolt on spending bill tells us

'This is the reality'

Trump's transition team was already in a time crunch.

It formally signed a memorandum of understanding with the Biden administration in late November when candidates normally get on board by September, before a winner is even known. Only once that agreement was signed can background checks start on critical personnel and Trump “landing teams” head into agencies to survey their new digs.

The Trump transition won't totally be put on hold if a shutdown happens at midnight Friday.

Senators will likely still be able to consider the former and future president's Cabinet nominees.

Trump's inauguration will also occur as required under the Constitution on January 20. But a shutdown at this point of the presidential transition is unprecedented in U.S. history and raises questions that the executive and legislative branches of government haven't had to consider before.

More: No stranger to shutdowns: A look into Trump's history with government closures

“A great deal will depend on how long the shutdown lasts and what exceptions exist," Chemerinsky said.

Trump this week torpedoed a bipartisan spending agreement days before spending authority runs out and the government closes. A narrower secondary plan, which House leaders negotiated with Trump, was spurned by more than 30 Republicans and fell apart. Negotiations continued Friday.

One of Trump's top confidants, billionaire Elon Musk, who used his massive social media following to help kill the spending bill, even suggested Congress leave the government closed until Trump takes office next month, and a handful of Republican hardliners in the House agreed.

Such a move would have tremendous ripples not just for the billions of dollars it would cost taxpayers or the direct affects on people's lives. Legal experts told USA TODAY it would also hinder a smooth transfer of power.

More: Government shutdown live updates: Funding deal takes shape. Can it pass?

A Trump transition team spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

At her Friday briefing, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the Biden administration is committed to a smooth transfer to Trump but will be constrained if there's a shutdown.

"This is the reality: Transition activities will be restricted and with limited exceptions such as (preventing) imminent threats to the safety of human life or the protection of property," she said. "We're doing everything to ensure a smooth transition, but the choice to allow a transition to move forward is in the hands of Republicans in Congress."

"We can continue to have this smooth transition of power if they stop threatening a shutdown," Jean-Pierre said.

Time crunch

Preparations between administrations go far beyond showing new people where the bathrooms are and where to get a cup of coffee. It also includes briefings on national security threats, who to work with in state government agencies or how federal grants are approved and what regulations are being considered.

A shutdown means furloughed federal employees would not be available to help prepare Trump's transition landing teams, and the thousands of his incoming staffers, for their new roles. Furloughed employees wouldn't be allowed to respond to calls or emails either.

The federal office buildings where Trump's landing teams have been given space to work could also largely be closed to non-essential employees.

More: Timeline of more than 20 U.S. government shutdowns over nearly 50 years

"There are binders that are presented for incoming personnel. There are briefings for nominees. There are briefings that are given to members of the transition team," said Florida State University law professor Michael Morley, who worked in the Pentagon during Barack Obama's transition.

"The less time there is to gather that material, to process that material presented, the harder a position the incoming administration will be in once they take power," he said.

Current administration employees in every federal agency began preparing months ago to ensure the transition is smooth, but that information has to all be transmitted in just a handful of weeks.

If the current administration employees are furloughed during a government shutdown "that would undermine and hinder the transition process (and) quite likely delay the ability of the incoming administration's transition team to be able to get up to speed and be able to hit the ground running once inauguration day rolls around," Morley said.

Does a delay matter?

Thousands of incoming staff need key cards, identification badges, security clearances and background checks just to walk in the door on their first day.

“Getting people into their jobs, security clearances in the jobs they need… is basically halted,” Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution scholar and former White House staffer, told USA TODAY.

The delays can have disastrous consequences.

The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, which studied how the federal government missed the preparations for the 9/11 terror attacks, cited a delay in confirming and preparing national security officials caused by the fight over who won the 2000 election as a reason the country's intelligence community didn't identify the threat in time.

Can the Senate still consider nominees?

Senate committees are expected to begin confirmation hearings for Trump's nominees, starting with Cabinet secretaries, soon after they return Jan. 3. Control of the Senate will flip from Democrats to Republicans.

Congress can keep operating during a shutdown, though most attention normally focuses on negotiations to reopen the government. Committees can hold confirmation hearings and the full Senate can vote to confirm Trump's nominees.

An FBI spokesperson said that the work of the FBI security division is considered essential, so background investigations will continue.

What does it mean for the inauguration?

The inauguration still happens, but what it looks like might change a bit.

Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration is jointly managed by the incoming president's inaugural committee, which handles things like organizing the parade and inaugural balls, and the federal government, which handles logistics like security, constructing the massive platform the president and guests stand on during the ceremony and moving the new president and his family into the White House.

Security at inaugural events would be provided by the government regardless of what is planned, Georgetown University law professor David Super, an expert on congressional procedure, told USA TODAY, but there might be less pomp and circumstance than people are used to if there is a shutdown.

"You might have it somewhat truncated, which does suggest that if we have a government shutdown that stretches into January, that Mr. Trump may have some motive to resolve it,” Super said.

Kamarck said much of the work is done by the inaugural committee and it shouldn't be too much different because of a shutdown.

"There’s going to be a lot of other people who are raising the money and planning the parties” who aren’t on government salaries and will still be working, she said.

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, which handles logistics for the congressional luncheon held to recognize the new president as well as the inauguration speech and swearing in ceremony at the Capitol, expects its role to continue regardless of a shutdown.

“If we experience a government shutdown this close to the Inauguration, it will be an extremely unfortunate and unprecedented situation," said Eliza Duckworth, a spokesperson for the committee.

Still, she said, the committee will work to help "peaceful transfer of power to continue."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: A shutdown could mean Trump administration isn't prepared on day one