Debbie who? Poll reveals Democrat facing FL Sen. Rick Scott is starting with a big hurdle.
Florida Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell may face even tougher odds than previously thought in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Rick Scott.
A new USA TODAY/Ipsos poll published Saturday finds that 74% of Florida voters have never heard of Mucarsel-Powell. That includes an overwhelming 61% of the state’s Democratic voters and 78% of the independents the Democratic candidate is relying on to narrow her opponents lead in the race.
Scott edged Mucarsel-Powell 36%-26% in the poll, fielded between April 5 through April 7.
The results may dampen Democrats' hopes that the Florida Supreme Court’s recent abortion ruling would boost Mucarsel-Powell’s chances in the conservative-leaning state. In early April, the court upheld Florida’s 15-week abortion ban and OK’d a ballot measure that, if passed, would protect access to the procedure in the state.
At the time of the ruling, experts suggested that the abortion ballot measure could incentivize liberal-leaning voters to head to the polls in November – which would help Democratic candidates like Mucarsel-Powell.
But, with eight months to go until the election, Mucarsel-Powell’s low name recognition across the state could prove to be a major barrier in an already difficult-to-win race.
Mucarsel-Powell, 53, represented Florida’s 26th District, which includes parts of Miami, for one term in Congress between 2019 and 2021. After leaving office, Murcarsel-Powell joined the gun violence prevention organization Giffords, founded by former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, as a senior adviser. She's previously worked in academic administration, including as an associate dean at Florida International University.
She’s facing off against Scott, who is a longtime fixture in Florida politics. He served as the state’s governor between 2011 and 2019 and went on to beat out Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson to win his Senate seat in 2018.
A Democratic candidate hasn't won statewide in Florida since 2018.
In this year's Senate race, the USA TODAY/Ipsos poll shows that more than 20% of Democrats don’t know who they’ll vote for yet. But, more Democrats (9%) than Republicans (3%) say they don’t plan on casting a ballot in the November Senate race.
And 8% of Democrats surveyed said they were willing to cross party lines to vote for Scott, compared to just 2% of Republicans who were willing to do the same for Mucarsel-Powell.
The Florida race could play a pivotal role in the battle for control of the Senate. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the chamber, but are facing a slate of challenging races in 2024. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement heavily favors a Republican to take his seat in deep-red West Virginia, and races in Montana, Nevada and Ohio are all considered toss-ups. A Democratic pick-up of Scott's seat in Florida would be a major upset.
Susan MacManus, a retired political science professor at the University of South Florida, argued that even with abortion on the ballot, Mucarsel-Powell will need name recognition to win the Senate race.
“It’s not impossible to get name ID, but name ID requires money and publicity and news,” MacManus said. “That's why there's such a big push to get the Biden administration, the DNC and their deep-pocketed Democrats to pour money into Florida.”
In 2022, Republicans outspent Democrats in Florida by more than $100 million and GOP candidates, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, outperformed their Democratic competitors. If Democrats want to even the playing field this year, MacManus argued that they’ll need to up their investment.
She also cautioned that Democrats like Mucarsel-Powell need to do a better job of communicating with young voters, who typically aren’t affiliated with a political party.
“They have to have a high turnout in a fairly cohesive vote among younger voters. In this state to be able to win statewide because the older voters leaned a little bit more Republican and their higher turnout,” she said.
Scott narrowly leads Mucarsel-Powell among independent voters in the state 28% to 25%, according to the USA TODAY/Ipsos survey. More than 20% of those polled said they don’t know who they’ll support in the race and 12% said they don’t plan on voting.
When reached for comment, Mucarsel-Powell's campaign pointed out that 48% of people polled in the USA TODAY/Ipsos survey viewed Scott unfavorably, arguing that Mucarsel-Powell has room to gain ground with dissatisfied Floridians in the next seven months.
"Voters know that Rick Scott is an extremist who has proudly backed Florida's unpopular near-total abortion band and come for their Social Security benefits," said Campaign Spokesperson Lauren Chou. "That's why a plurality of voters disapprove of him."
The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.1%.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell faces big hurdle in FL race against Rick Scott