FAU poll has Biden edging Trump, but former president draws major share of younger voters

It's happiness, stupid.

In one of the first polls issued since Joe Biden and Donald Trump clinched their party's nominations, the incumbent president edges out his predecessor in what remains a "dead heat" — but it's the candidates' standing with discontented and disaffected younger voters that one pollster called revealing.

The poll released Tuesday by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research has President Biden topping former President Trump 47% to 45% among likely voters. The result, however, is firmly within the poll's 3-percentage point margin of error.

But Trump showed significant, if not surprising, strength among voters under 50 years old.

Those between the ages 18 and 34 chose Trump by a landslide 54.4% to 36.6%. The gap narrowed but still favored the former president in the 35 to 49 bracket, 48% to 43.6%.

"This is where the head-scratching begins," said Robert Gutsche Jr., associate professor in FAU's School of Communication and Multimedia Studies.

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Why are younger voters leaning toward Trump? Happiness.

Gutsche noted the results seem counterintuitive, considering that younger voters generally are more concerned with climate change, gun-safety measures and reproductive rights, issues in which Democratic positions seem more popular. But he said the poll results point to the way economic issues, from housing unaffordability to crushing student loan debt, are eroding their consumer confidence and outlook.

"Youth, in particular, are balancing a lot of these things against what they're interests are with (the) Second Amendment, Supreme Court decisions, and surrounding courts and trials" Gutsche said. "There's a great amount of uncertainty among these younger generations where they're very attuned to what their concerns are. … A lot is on their shoulders."

For example, asked if they believe the "conditions" of their life is "excellent," 58% of the overall respondents said they either strongly agreed, agreed or slightly agreed. But among those 18 to 34, nearly half, 47.8%, said they either strongly disagreed, disagreed or slightly disagreed. In the 35 to 49 age group, 43.8% also responded with a negative answer.

Another question asked each respondent if they are "satisfied" with their life, and 60% of the total population said they either strongly agreed, agreed or slightly agreed. But among those 18 to 34, 66% said they either strongly disagreed, disagreed or slightly disagreed, while 48.3% in the 35 to 49 group responded in similar fashion.

"We're finding the intersection between happiness and political decisions," Gutsche said. "You have the youth who seem to be really struggling to find happiness, which is unusual, and possibly seeing Donald Trump as the answer to that."

It's a different outlook for more partisan electorates, however. Among those who told pollsters they planned to vote for Biden, 75% responded that they were at least “slightly satisfied” with their lives, while just 62% of Trump voters said likewise.

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The 'never' voters more adamant against Trump than Biden

The poll also revealed some striking differences among those most turned off by both major party presumptive nominees, especially the apparent adamant position of the so-called "never" Trump voters.

Of those saying they would not cast a ballot for Trump, 67% said they would not reconsider that decision. By contrast, just 43% of those who said they were supporting Biden said their view is not changeable.

"The whole notion of never Trump has really taken hold," said FAU professor and pollster Carol Bishop Mills. "People may not like Biden. They may have issues, concerns about Biden, maybe his age, whatever, but the people that find Trump problematic is really problematic."

Biden's approval rating in this poll, however, appears to be an outlier. Most polls have Biden under 40%. But the FAU-Mainstreet survey had it at 47% approval, 51% disapproval rating.

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at [email protected]. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: FAU Mainstreet poll has Trump trouncing Biden among young voters