Exclusive poll: For Trump, a strengthened hand but skepticism on tax cuts, tariffs

President-elect Donald Trump is in a stronger political position now than he was when he was poised to be sworn in for his first term, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll finds, but he has yet to convince most Americans about the wisdom of some of his key campaign promises.

The survey taken on the cusp of his inauguration shows both the potential and the landmines as Trump becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to win the White House, lose his reelection bid and then rebound to win it again.

"Keeps going back to the economy ? I want him to fix it," said Brandon Porria, 30, a political independent and information technology specialist from Hollister, California, who voted for Trump in November. He was among those called in the poll. "The one thing I don't want him to do is, you know, be petty and … waste time going after people that might have had ill feelings toward him."

Addressing the economy was overwhelmingly the public's top priority on a list of seven issues, cited by 47%. Only immigration, at 21%, also broke into double digits.

The top two issues that voters said they didn't want Trump to address were investigating Biden administration officials and congressional Democrats (24%) and issuing pardons for those indicted or convicted in connection with the Jan. 6 insurrection (23%).

The poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone from Jan. 7 to 11, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

"My hope is that he becomes a little bit more like a team player; I hope he's more middle ground," Ashley Oliver, 38, an independent from Birmingham, Alabama, who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris, said of Trump. Oliver was encouraged when she saw the president-elect and former president Barack Obama chatting and smiling at last week's state funeral for former president Jimmy Carter.

But she added, "My fear is that he's gonna not do that."

Trump continues to generate strong feelings, positive and negative.

While 31% said they felt "excited" about Trump taking office again, an equal 31% said they felt "afraid."

Even so, that's a more positive reading than in December 2016, in response to a similar question, when only 16% felt "excited" and 38% were "alarmed" by the prospect of Trump's first term.

Americans skeptical of tax cuts, tariffs

Trump has said that one of his first legislative initiatives will be to extend and expand the tax cuts passed in his first term, now set to expire after this year.

But in the survey, a 53% majority of voters said Congress should focus on cutting the federal budget deficit, even if it meant not extending the tax cuts. Just 28% said Congress should extend the tax cuts even if it means increasing the deficit.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the 2017 Trump tax cuts added $1.9 trillion to the national debt.

Enthusiasm for tax cuts was relatively restrained even among Republicans: 46% put a higher priority on cutting taxes, and 38% on curbing the deficit.

Trump's vow to impose tariffs on imports also faced public skepticism.

Just 2% of those surveyed said it should be the new president's top priority, while 11% chose it as their top choice for something he shouldn't do.

The second time around, Trump's strengthened hand

While voters are still split on Trump, he comes into office in a stronger position than he had in 2017 ? and a stronger one than he had when he was preparing to leave office in 2021.

Those surveyed by 52% to 45% said they approved of the job Trump did as president during his first term. That's a rosier assessment than he ever received in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll when he was in office.

His favorable-unfavorable rating is now tied at 47% to 47%. While the even split isn't exactly glowing, it is better than his favorability in surveys taken in December 2016 when his rating was a net negative by five points, and in December 2020 when he had a net negative of 15 points.

The change over the past four years was particularly significant among independent voters.

"Donald Trump essentially wiped out his overwhelming negative personal popularity between December 2020 and today among independents," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Trump went from a whopping minus 22 (35% favorable ? 57% unfavorable) to a negligible minus 5 (42% favorable ? 47% unfavorable)" among the group that typically swings elections.

How will history judge Trump?

Twenty percent of those surveyed predicted he will be seen as a "great" president, and 19% as a "good" president. Another 27% said he would be judged a "fair" president and 44% a "failed" president.

Those are somewhat more positive ratings than he received in 2020, when fewer (16%) had predicted he would be a "great" president and more (50%) had said he would be seen as a "failed" president.

Trump has one significant advantage over his predecessor. Americans by 84% to 12% said he was legitimately elected president, including three-fourths of those who voted for Harris. Debunked accusations by Trump that the 2020 election was "stolen" from him dogged Biden throughout his tenure.

"He's not really president," Alex Martinez, 60, a Republican and a schoolteacher from Federal Way, Washington, said of Biden. "I call him a puppet president, answering to billionaire George Soros and the shadow government." Martinez, who voted for Trump, predicted Biden was "going to go down as the worst president" in history.

For Biden, harsh judgments

Biden leaves office amid low assessments of his tenure.

Just 5% of those surveyed said history would rate him as a "great" president, 21% as a "good" one, and 27% as a fair one. But 44%, a plurality, predicted he would be seen as a "failed" one.

The most frequent response when asked to name Biden's biggest achievement as president was "undecided," at 23%, followed by investing in infrastructure, at 19%. Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, a public health and economic crisis when he took office, was cited by just 10%.

Asked about his biggest failure as president, 31% cited his handling of immigration and 20% the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.

Today's negative judgments will be tempered with time, predicted Herman Cole, 79, comparing Biden to Carter.

"People said that, you know, (Carter) was one of the worst presidents that ever lived, and it was proven later on that he really wasn't; he really was a good president," Cole, a retired Air Force colonel who is now vice mayor of Titusville, Florida, said in a follow-up phone interview after being polled. A Republican, he voted for Harris in November. "I think that when people look back in history, they're going to determine that Biden was a good president for the time that we had."

Biden's pardon of his son, Hunter, of federal gun and tax charges was opposed by a 2 to 1 margin, 61% to 31%. The idea he's considering of issuing preemptive pardons to officials Trump has vowed to investigate was also opposed by double digits, 52% to 38%.

As Trump's favorable-unfavorable ratings have improved over the last four years, Biden's have worsened.

As he prepared to take office in December 2020, Biden's rating was 49% to 39%, a net positive one by 10 points. He leaves office with a rating of 34% to 58%, a net negative by 24 points.

Ukraine, vaccines and what's ahead

Americans were split, 47% to 48%, over whether the government should reexamine vaccine mandates for some diseases. That's something Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his nominee to head the Department of Health and Human Services, have said they support.

Voters narrowly supported, by 50% to 44%, another Trump promise, to reduce military aid to Ukraine and press for a negotiated settlement with Russia.

And they are opposed by more than 2 to 1, 61% to 29%, to the idea of privatizing the U.S. Postal Service so it is no longer part of the government. Trump has said he's considering that.

There were some questions on which Americans were broadly united.

Two-thirds of voters, 66%, said the divisions in the country are deeper than they were in the past. That view is held across partisan lines, by 73% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.

By 54% to 32%, those surveyed said the country was on the wrong track, not headed in the right direction. That's gloomier than the already-gloomy views Americans had four years ago and eight years ago.

Dissatisfaction with the status quo and a desire for change were seen as a major reason for Trump's victory.

"He's a disrupter, and that's why we elected him back in 2016," Cynthia Harrison, 57, a Republican retiree from Stowe, Vermont, said with delight. "He's going to shake up Washington."

Which has made Christy Rangel, 51, a legal secretary from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, feel "really nervous" about what's ahead. A political independent, she voted for Harris in November.

"I think he's going to divide people further," she said of Trump. "I know in my own family ? I can't discuss politics or current events with my dad, and that's something that I always used to love to discuss with him. But we are on opposite ends, and it turns into a fight."

(This story has been updated to correct a typo.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Poll: For Trump, a stronger hand but skepticism on tax cuts, tariffs