Elections analysts move 2 Iowa U.S. House races to 'toss-up' after Kamala Harris surge
Nonpartisan elections analysts at the Cook Political Report have moved two Iowa congressional races into their most competitive category after previously favoring Republicans to win.
The 1st and 3rd District U.S. House races in Iowa are now considered true "toss-ups," the group said Friday, indicating either party could win. They had previously been rated as "leaning" toward Republicans.
The change follows weeks of significant upheaval in the nation's political landscape. After Democratic President Joe Biden ended his reelection effort and Vice President Kamala Harris earned the party's nomination, the presidential race appears to have narrowed significantly in Iowa.
A September Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows former Republican president Donald Trump leading Harris by 4 percentage points after he'd previously led by Biden by 18 percentage points.
Democrats in the state hope the closer margin will help boost down-ballot candidates.
"In House races across the Midwest, Harris appears to be matching Biden's 2020 margin — or in some places, even gaining some ground," Erin Covey, Cook Political Report's House Editor, wrote in her analysis. "That's particularly true in Iowa's 1st and 3rd Districts, held by GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. We're moving both districts, currently rated Lean Republican, into the Toss Up column. Though the 1st District is slightly more Republican leaning than the 3rd, Miller-Meeks is a uniquely weak incumbent."
Miller-Meeks, who represents the 1st District in southeast Iowa, is facing Democrat Christina Bohannan after a relatively narrow primary win. In June, a relatively unknown Republican challenger took 44% of the vote in his bid to unseat her.
Bohannan, who is running against Miller-Meeks for the second time, has been a strong fundraiser, consistently bringing in more donations per quarter than her opponent.
The September Iowa Poll also showed that 49% of likely voters in Iowa's 1st District prefer a Democratic candidate for Congress and 46% prefer a Republican candidate. In every other district, likely voters prefer a Republican.
Nunn's race in the 3rd District, where he is challenged by Democrat Lanon Baccam, has been expected to be the most closely contested. Nunn won by just half of a percentage point in 2022. Baccam, too, has proven to be an aggressive fundraiser.
National Republicans have recently sent in reinforcements, funneling an additional $4.2 million in ad spending to the two districts. The money comes from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC endorsed by House Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leadership.
“We’re fully committed to Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn winning in November," Congressional Leadership Fund President Dan Conston said in a previous statement.
Analysts at Sabato's Crystal Ball so far have kept both races in the "leans Republican" column, even as they note the dynamics may be shifting in Iowa. Analysts noted the recent Iowa Poll showing Trump ahead by 4 percentage points.
"If Harris ran markedly better in Iowa than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, these two districts would likely be voting for her instead of Trump," Kyle Kondik wrote in his analysis.
He noted that Trump won Iowa's 3rd District in 2020 by just 0.3 percentage points, and he won the 1st District by about 3 percentage points.
"However, we’re a little skeptical that Harris’s actual position in Iowa is as strong as that poll suggests, which also gives us some caution about seeing either of the key Iowa House races as true toss-ups," he wrote.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts rated 'toss ups' by Cook Political Report