Early tropical disturbance forms, fizzles as experts warn of bad Atlantic hurricane season

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
·2 min read
16

The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory of the year on Wednesday, a month before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The advisory was issued for a tropical disturbance that was far out to sea, and has since dissipated, the hurricane center said late Wednesday.

The otherwise nondescript system was notable for being the first sign of what's expected to be a ferocious hurricane season in the Atlantic, with potentially dozens of storms.

Preseason forecasts from top hurricane experts point to a "hyperactive" or "explosive" season. One group Wednesday from the University of Pennsylvania predicted a record-breaking 33 named storms this year.

The most active year on record was 2020, when 30 storms formed. A typical season sees 14 storms.

Forecasters cite unusually warm ocean water as one factor. Hurricanes and tropical storms gain their power from warm ocean water.

Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic region in late April, as seen in this sea-surface temperature anomaly map built by the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine with NOAA data.
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic region in late April, as seen in this sea-surface temperature anomaly map built by the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine with NOAA data.

“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming,” said University of Pennsylvania meteorologist Michael Mann, who led the research group.

Other teams, such as AccuWeather and Colorado State University, are also predicting above-normal hurricane activity this year. Federal forecasters from NOAA will release their forecast in late May.

Where was the disturbance?

The disturbance was located in the Atlantic Ocean, about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, the hurricane center said. It had produced "a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since Wednesday morning."

The hurricane center gave it a "low" chance for development into a tropical cyclone, and that came to fruition late Wednesday as the system dissipated: "Additional development is not expected," the hurricane center said.

The hurricane center will issue daily tropical outlooks beginning May 15, unless a disturbance worth monitoring appears earlier in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin covers the northern Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

A special tropical outlook is issued — as was the case Wednesday — if something develops ahead of May 15.

When does the hurricane season start?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1. However, "preseason" storms have formed with regularity in May over the past decade. One — Tropical Storm Arlene in 2017 — formed in April.

This year, the first hurricane name will be Alberto.

Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: First NHC advisory issued; Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1

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