‘Doomsday scenario:’ Debate over LA's fitness to host 2028 Olympics widens amid wildfires

LOS ANGELES – Bathed by a full moon, the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum this week looked ready for action.

Floodlights shone. So did the Olympic rings on a sign at the front of the 77,500-seat stadium. But confidence in the city’s ability to host the 2028 Olympics appears to have dimmed.

The devastating wildfires in Los Angeles have fueled a growing debate over whether the city will be prepared to host the 2028 Games as planned. Not to mention 2026 World Cup games and the 2027 Super Bowl.

“Of course there is a doomsday scenario that would force the cancellation of such major sports events,’’ Gary Roberts, a retired longtime sports law expert familiar with the international sports landscape, told USA TODAY Sports. “The issue is not yes or no, but rather how severe the situation would have to get before a relocation decision would be made, and by whom and through what process would such a decision be made.’’

Los Angeles city officials and Olympic officials have limited their comments about the Games and focused on the plight of the victims and rebuilding that lies ahead.

Two leading sports economists and professors, Andrew Zimbalist of Smith College and Victor Matheson of Holy Cross, expressed confidence the 2028 Games can be held in Los Angeles as scheduled.

“As horrific as the fires have been, I think LA28 will be ok,’’ Zimbalist told USA TODAY, referring to the organizing committee for the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympics.

None of the venues selected for the 2028 Games is in the path of the fires this month. But that didn’t stop conservative commentator Charlie Kirk this week from writing on his X account, “The Los Angeles Olympics should be cancelled. If you can't fill a fire hydrant, you aren't qualified to host the Olympics.’’

A city bursting with athletic venues

Casey Wasserman, chairman of LA28, has touted the organizing committee's pledge to use private funds and stay within a budget of approximately $7 billion. If that plan fails, Los Angeles and and the state of California would be responsible for hundreds of millions in overruns.

So far, no city or state officials have addressed at length whether taking that risk would be too much now to face given the costs of rebuilding. An independent research team at the financial services company J.P. Morgan has projected rebuilding will cost billions.

But Zimbalist and Matheson, the two sports economists, expressed no serious concerns about the impact of the wildfires on the Olympics.

“My guess is this has little effect on the Games other than making insurance expensive," Matheson said.

Of the more than 12,000 structures destroyed by the fires, Matheson said the destruction represents "only" 0.2% of the larger city. He noted none of the Olympic venues has been damaged.

He also cited history.

The 1948 Summer Games, Matheson observed, took place in London only four years removed from the city being regularly bombed in World War II. He also noted Mexico City hosted the 1986 World Cup the year after 10,000 people died in that city died during an earthquake.

"...mega-events have frequently taken place shortly after disasters,'' Matheson said.

The Olympic venue in the greatest danger of fire damage is the Riviera Country Club, selected to host golf for the 2028 Games. It’s in the Pacific Palisades, one of the areas hardest hit by the fires.

But even if it’s torched, Zimbalist noted, it would have 3-1/2 years to recover, “and if that doesn't work, there are over 20 championship courses in the area that can be used.’’

That reflects what Zimbalist described as a city bursting with athletic venues that could be used as replacements.

Said Zimbalist, “Bottom line: as horrific as the fires have been, I think LA28 will be OK.’’

Will it be au revoir for 2028 LA Games?

Gary Hall Jr., the former U.S. Olympic swimmer, said he lost all of his Olympic medals last week when a home he was renting in Pacific Palisades burned to the ground. This week, during an interview with USA TODAY, he joined the debate over the 2028 Olympics.

He criticized Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and state government, taking issue with their handling of the wildfires.

"I don't have faith that the mayor is going to handle this in a way that we will be able to rebound and really prepare ourselves," he said.

"I just have very little confidence in state and city leadership. If it were just up to them, I would bet against the Olympics being held successfully,'' he continued. "But It's too early to tell if the gloom that hangs in the air thicker than smoke is substantial.''

Hall competed in three Olympics – the 1996 Atlanta Games, 2000 Sydney Games and 2004 Athens Games – and won 10 Olympic medals the International Olympic Committee said it will replace.

“The Olympic medals to me represent resilience," Hall said. “That's what it takes to get those things. And that's what the organization is all about.

“I think that the International Olympic Committee and the athletes that comprise that organization are more resolved than any other group or organization in the world. And if there's a challenge, these are the people that can tackle it.’’

But as the debate continues, Mark Dyreson, Penn State professor and sports historian, told the New York Post of the 2028 Olympics, “They could go back to Paris.”

That city shined during the 2024 Paris Games. And as the L.A. wildfires continue to smolder, it’s still unclear if the city of Los Angeles, to the prospect of hosting the 2028 Olympics, might have to say “Au revoir.’’

Contributing: Nancy Armour

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: LA fires spur debate over city's fitness to host for 2028 Olympics