Democrats plot a path back to victory in Nevada after Trump ends 20-year streak

LAS VEGAS — Democrats just suffered a bruising defeat at the presidential level in Nevada for the first time in 20 years, fueled by a swing toward Republicans among working-class voters.

The outcome has prompted a reckoning with how they failed. In interviews, top Democrats and their allies cited “messaging” problems, the late switch to nominating Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump’s unique ability to capitalize on the pain of post-pandemic rising costs, which hit hard for many voters.

Yet they remain upbeat about their prospects in Nevada, noting that the red wave ended with Trump and failed to translate to other Republicans in the state. The peculiar outcome is helping them map out the strategy to paint Nevada blue again in 2028.

“I certainly believe he is, I’m going to say, very gifted at targeting certain groups of society and telling them what they want to know,” said Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., who said she won a district that backed Trump. “And I think the proof will be in the pudding — if he can deliver on those promises.”

If Republicans fail to improve their lives, Lee said, “it’s going to come back to haunt them in two years and then again in four years.”

While Democrats’ presidential nominee lost, Sen. Jacky Rosen won re-election, and Democrats in all three closely divided Las Vegas-area House districts won. Democrats also held their ground in the state Legislature, falling just shy of supermajorities.

Ticket-splitting and partial nonvoting in Nevada’s “none of the above” ballot option had impacts.

Harris lost Nevada despite winning about 4,000 more votes than Rosen did. The key difference? Many Trump backers refused to check the box for Rosen's opponent, Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown. Brown won nearly 75,000 fewer votes than Trump.

A working-class message

“Trump is a phenomenon. He’s a brand. And he’s been at it for 30 years with 'The Apprentice,' appearing on WWF, et cetera,” said Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the influential Culinary Union in Las Vegas. “When you lose the top of the ticket, you normally have damage. It didn’t happen.”

With its large population of Latinos and voters without college degrees, Nevada was ground zero for the two demographics that helped Trump sweep all seven battleground states.

According to NBC News exit polls of Nevada, Trump lost Latinos by 26 percentage points in 2020, but he won them by 2 points this year. Among Nevada voters without college degrees, Trump extended his lead from 2 points in 2020 to 10 points this year.

Pappageorge, whose union represents the blue-collar workers who staff the glamorous hotels and casinos of Sin City, said Democrats were hurt by “messaging issues” that let Trump appeal to working-class voters by running against “elitism.”

“Democrats have to get back to the basics of fighting for working-class issues and values,” he said, including “working-class white, Black and Latino workers,” both men and women. “Working-class voters don’t pay attention to politics. They’re not watching CNN and Fox or all that. They’re worried about taking care of their families," he said.

Even as Trump carried Nevada Latinos by 2 points, they voted for Rosen by 7 points, according to NBC News exit polls.

Republican hopes for the future

Republicans say Nevada’s vote for Trump marks the beginning of a shift toward their party that the GOP can build on.

"It’s a really big deal. We’ve seen Republicans have success at the state level since 2004, but the presidential had eluded us," said Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist who has worked on Nevada races. "When you look at 2020, 2022 and 2024, you see a trend that would be foolish for anyone to ignore."

Asked about the GOP’s failure to convert down the ballot, Hughes said: "It’s still a work in progress. Beating incumbents is hard. But success will build on success if we continue executing in 2026 and beyond."

He added that Republicans can start proving Democrats wrong by re-electing GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo in 2026.

Other Republicans said resources were a problem down the ballot.

“Brown was badly outspent. He closed the gap, but the cavalry probably arrived about a week too late,” said a national Republican strategist working on Senate races, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak frankly about his party.

The strategist said the House GOP machine “didn’t spend a penny” in Nevada this year but added: “Republicans should be optimistic for Nevada down the road. The voter registration trends tell the story."

The Democrats' road map

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., who defied headwinds to win in 2022, said Democrats must get a handle on the growing number of unaligned voters.

“We now have more nonpartisans or independents in the state of Nevada than we’ve ever had before, over a third of them. And so we have to know who they are,” she said. “You’ve got to focus your message on those voters at the end of the day and talk about the issues that they care about. That’s why Jacky won.”

“Nevada’s races are always competitive and close. That’s not going to change. We’ve always had close presidential races,” Cortez Masto said. “But at the end of the day, do I have confidence in the Democratic ground game and the infrastructure and the knocking on the doors and talking to our voters? I do have confidence in that. And that is part of why we are so successful.”

Rosen said she won because she delivered results for tourism, wildfire mitigation, infrastructure, a new Veterans Affairs hospital in Reno and solar, wind and geothermal jobs.

Harris, she said, was hamstrung by bad luck.

“There’s a lot of larger questions, of course. I’ll say this as a woman: Are people ready for a woman president?” Rosen said. “This was a unique election cycle because of the way that President Biden stepped back 100 days before the election.”

Josh Marcus-Blank, a Democratic operative who worked for Cortez Masto in 2022 and on Harris’ 2024 campaign, said his party retains “the road map to win in Nevada” with a diverse coalition of voters and an agenda focused on economics, housing and the cost of living.

“At the same time, it’s a state where voters have consistently stood up for reproductive freedom, and, whether it’s on the ballot or not, abortion rights will continue to be a big piece of Democratic campaigns going forward,” he said.

Pappageorge praised Harris for running a strong campaign against long odds. He said that while the Biden-Harris policy record on blue-collar workers is strong, many aren’t perceiving it.

“Joe Biden was the most pro-union, pro-worker candidate and president that we’ve ever had in our lifetimes,” he said. “But overall, the Democratic Party missed the mark, and they’re going to have to re-evaluate that commitment to working-class voters.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com