A Democratic ex-mayor is running for Senate in one of the most Republican US states. Does he have a chance?

The man in the blue shirt leveled his gaze at Glenn Elliott, who had just walked into his yard in the quiet, conservative town of Moundsville and introduced himself as a candidate to represent West Virginia in the US Senate.

“It would take a lot to make me like any politician right now,” the man replied.

It wasn’t an unfamiliar sentiment for Elliott, a former city mayor running as a Democrat to represent a state that has become one of the most Republican places in the country in recent years. Voter disenchantment is inevitable in West Virginia, which ranks at or near the bottom in most quality of life measures, from childhood poverty rates to overdose deaths. But Elliott has his ways of keeping the conversation going.

“Well, I’m running against Jim Justice,” he replied. The man’s interest was piqued, and when he agreed to accept a flyer from Elliott, the tall, silver-haired 52-year-old exclaimed, “So, you’re saying there’s a chance!”

Justice is the state’s Republican governor, who, because of West Virginia’s strongly conservative tilt, is viewed as a shoo-in for the seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, a one-time Democrat who is leaving the Senate after acting as a thorn in the side of Joe Biden during the first two years of his presidency.

Democrats are scrambling to maintain their 51-seat majority in Congress’s upper chamber, a task made harder by Manchin’s decision last year not to run again, and by the fact that their best pathway to another two years in the majority requires the re-election of Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and Montana’s Jon Tester, two senators representing red states.

Recent polls have shown the latter coming up short against his Republican challenger, and the party is now hoping for perhaps even more unlikely victories by candidates in Florida and Texas. Should those efforts fail and Republicans take the Senate as Trump returns to the White House, they could confirm his rightwing picks for supreme court, cabinet and powerful federal regulatory agencies. Even if Harris wins, a Republican-controlled Senate could block her choices for the same positions.

The former president definitely has the attention of a lot of voters who feel like they’re being ignored. I’m not running against him, I’m running against Jim Justice

Glenn Elliott

West Virginia was for decades a Democratic stronghold, but after giving Trump two of his biggest victories of any state in 2016 and 2020, the party’s leaders have essentially written off its Senate seat. The party’s decline was confirmed earlier this year, when Manchin switched his registration to independent, meaning there are no longer any Democrats in statewide office.

Elliott is on a mission to change that, and prove Justice wrong. He argues that Justice, whose businesses are enveloped in a legal storm of lawsuits and unpaid bills, is not as popular as he appears, and is pressing on with his campaign despite little support from national Democratic power brokers.

There are few polls of the race in West Virginia, but those that exist show Elliott, who Manchin has endorsed, badly trailing. Justice was up 62% to Elliott’s 28% in an August survey by MetroNews West Virginia, and another poll, commissioned by the Democrat’s campaign that same month, showed him doing only slightly better, with Justice’s lead at 58%.

“I’ve never thought it was a high probability race, but I’ve always known there’s a chance,” Elliott said during an interview in his storefront campaign headquarters in downtown Wheeling, the city in West Virginia’s northern panhandle he led from 2016 until June. “Perhaps I’m naive, but I do believe that West Virginia voters can see the contrast in me and Governor Justice just in the way we’ve run this campaign.”

Elliott may be on to something, though there are no indications it amounts to enough to win the race. In an interview with the Guardian, the man with the blue shirt, who did not want to give his name but said he was a registered independent and Donald Trump supporter, made clear he loathed politicians – Justice included.

“Jim Justice is for those who are against us,” he said. Holding Elliott’s flyer, he said he would think about voting for him.

Trump’s strength in West Virginia has political forecasters predicting no surprises in November. GOP candidates are expected to sweep the governor’s mansion and federal offices up for grabs, and party fundraisers and campaign organizations have sent little money to Elliott or any other candidate.

“I think it absolutely was an error,” said Shawn Fluharty, a West Virginia house delegate who has managed to hang on to his seat representing Wheeling for the past 10 years, even as the state has grown more Republican.

“I think that Jim Justice is not as well liked as he was probably two years ago when they started polling that race. And I believe there was an opportunity. If Glenn had the full backing of the DNC, this race would be a hell of a lot closer than what the polls currently show.”

A businessman with interests in coal and agriculture, Justice was a Democrat as recently as 2017 then changed parties to become a reliable Trump ally, signing an abortion ban and a law banning transgender athletes from participating in public school female sports.

But West Virginians have also grown used to hearing stories of his companies being sued or not paying their bills. Last year, the justice department sued the governor, alleging his family companies owed more than $7.5m in unpaid penalties, and this year, a helicopter owned by one of his businesses was auctioned off to satisfy a judgment that resulted from a lawsuit involving a Russian mining firm.

“I knew that there’s some vulnerability there, and frankly, thought that I could outwork him and work hard to overcome what would be a pretty built-in advantage for him as the incumbent governor with an R next to his name,” said Elliott.

Polls of the Senate race found solid majorities of voters did not know much about Elliott, who has put issues such as healthcare, abortion rights and support for organized labor at the center of his campaign. In an effort to change that, he has visited every county in the state since winning his primary in May, knowing full well that to win, he would need to convince West Virginians who were sure to vote for Trump to also vote for him.

“The former president definitely has the attention of a lot of voters who feel like they’re being ignored,” he said. “I’m not running against him, I’m running against Jim Justice.”

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On a sunny Wednesday afternoon, he followed the highway that curves south along the Ohio river from Wheeling to go door knocking in Moundsville, arriving at the door of 86-year-old retired coalminer Bob Parsons. When Parsons learned that Elliott was a Democrat, he asked the former mayor to name one good thing Biden and Harris had done.

Elliott mentioned that the president’s policies had helped pay for new sewage infrastructure in Wheeling. “They definitely missed opportunities and they screwed up the border,” he added.

Though Parsons was a devout Trump supporter – he kept a sticker reading “It’s not my fault, I voted for Trump” on the back of his pickup truck’s camper shell – he also split his ticket between the parties, and was not impressed with Justice.

“I just don’t see Jim going to DC much,” he said.

Further down the street, Elliott encountered Melody Vucelick, a Democrat whose faith in the party was waning. Biden had disappointed her with his handling of immigration, and Vucelick said she was “totally against” Harris.

“I really want Trump to get in there to close that border,” the 71-year-old retiree said in an interview. “Small towns like this, I feel for my own safety, being alone.”

But in this one instance, Elliott need not worry. Vucelick said she still planned to support Democrats for every other spot on the ballot, and he will have her vote.