Who decides NC legislature’s most closely watched race? Key voters for Cotham vs. Sidman

North Carolina House Rep. Tricia Cotham’s political future likely rests in the hands of a few key voter blocs in her redrawn Mecklenburg County district, multiple political experts say.

Cotham is running for reelection for the first time since she switched political parties from Democrat to Republican, a move that gave the GOP a veto-proof supermajority in Raleigh and enabled the passage of new abortion restrictions.

In addition to running in a new party, she’s also running in a new district. House District 105 was redrawn in 2023 to cover parts of south and east Mecklenburg County, including swaths of Mint Hill and Mathews.

Data indicates the district leans Republican, but the controversy surrounding Cotham energized supporters of her Democratic opponent, Nicole Sidman. The election result is expected to influence whether the GOP keeps its supermajority.

Certain “prize constituencies,” especially unaffiliated voters and women, could make the difference for either candidate.

“If they swing dramatically in either direction, the candidate who attracts them is going to be the winner,” said Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at UNC Charlotte.

Who are the voters of House District 105?

The new House District 105 is 51.3% Republican to 46.5% Democrat according to the website Dave’s Redistricting, which uses a composite of election results from 2016 to 2022.

As of 2020, the district’s population was 85,671, according to the website. Demographically, it’s 73.5% white, 9.6% Black, 8% Hispanic, 7.2% Asian, 1.7% Native American and 0.1% Pacific Islander.

The redrawn district includes parts of both Matthews and Mint Hill. Matthews has a median household income of $103,405, according to census data. Mint Hill has a median household income of $92,102. Both are higher than Mecklenburg County’s and North Carolinas’ medians.

Political scientist Chris Cooper cautioned that while existing data provides some insights into the breakdown of the district, population growth in Mecklenburg County could have affected the dynamics in ways that haven’t been measured yet.

“They’re the question marks,” said Cooper, a professor at Western Carolina University, of new residents.

Key voter blocs that could swing Cotham vs. Sidman

Traditionally, the demographics of the new District 105 would favor a Republican. But, Cooper noted, things are different now.

“We used to think that it was income that mattered. Now we’ve realized in today’s post-Trump world, it’s education … A more educated district would tend to suggest some positives for any Democratic candidate and some negatives for any Republican candidate,” he said.

“Suburban, high-education areas” similar to District 105 “have been shifting towards the Democrats during the Trump era,” Heberlig said.

About 52.4% of Matthews residents and 38.7% of Mint Hill residents have at least a Bachelor’s degree. That’s compared to 46.6% in Charlotte, 51.6% of all Mecklenburg County residents and 36.8% of all North Carolinians, according to Census data.

“The question is whether it’s shifting enough,” he said of Sidman’s chances.

Women in particular are likely to be a key demographic, especially because abortion, the economy and education are key issues this election cycle, Davidson College political scientist Susan Roberts said. Cotham was a key vote in the wake of her party switch for North Carolina’s ban on abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy.

Unaffiliated voters are also “a key bloc” in the district, Heberlig said. As of October, those voters now outpace registered Democrats and registered Republicans in Mecklenburg, according to state data.

While unaffiliated voters often lean toward one party, there may still be rare “swing voters,” Cooper said.

“Most campaigns in North Carolina are about mobilization and not persuasion. They’re about getting your voters out more so than about persuading somebody to come to your side,” he said. “But I think given what we know about the large number of in-migrants in the district, what we know about the fact that they are relatively educated, I think this may be a rare case where persuasion can matter.”