How dangerous is the bird flu outbreak? Here's what I'm telling my patients.

I have tracked deadly, massive outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry for the past two decades. Hundreds of millions of birds have died, and there has been frequent spillover to other species, including mink, seals, foxes, skunks and even dogs and cats.

This week, the nation's largest supplier of eggs stopped production after birds at a plant in Texas tested positive. About 2 million chickens were slaughtered to prevent spread of the illness. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also reported that a person in Texas had contracted the flu but is displaying only mild symptoms.

The public has worried at times about a massive human pandemic, but since 2005, the structure of the bird flu virus has not changed significantly.

That is extremely good news, especially when you consider that gain-of-function research conducted in Dr. Ron Fouchier’s lab in the Netherlands in 2011 revealed the mutations needed for bird flu to pass from human to human. Monitoring of the virus in nature has shown that those mutations have yet to occur.

I spoke this week with CDC Director Mandy Cohen, who told me that the current spillover of bird flu to cattle has not shown any significant genetic changes. That is also good news.

The outbreak has occurred only in a few states (Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Texas), but cattle are brought from state to state and could have picked up the virus from birds. Dr. Cohen told me that the cattle have shown mild upper respiratory symptoms.

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Person with bird flu experienced mild symptoms

The patient in Texas also had mild symptoms – conjunctivitis and upper respiratory symptoms. She said the man was treated with Tamiflu and quickly got better.

People in close contact with him also were given Tamiflu, as a precaution against further spread.

Dr. Cohen said there is potential for cattle to become the first mammals to become a reservoir of the bird flu. The CDC is working closely with the U.S. Department of Agriculture to track cattle that have or have been exposed to the illness to determine if there is any sustained spread.

Over the past two decades, more than 400 million birds either have died from the disease or been culled to prevent transmission. Yet, human cases remain rare, with only 2,634 cases and about 1,000 deaths.

Bird flu pandemic? Experts look at worst-case scenarios.

Don’t get me wrong: It is the potential for the virus to adapt to human transmission over time that keeps many scientists and public health specialists up at night. But far too often, those experts are looking at worst-case scenarios to the detriment of public perception.

Fear is at the heart of public and media reactions to the potential of bird flu and other viruses to become a much-deadlier threat to humans.

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David Nabarro, a senior World Health Organizations expert on infectious diseases, warned the public in 2005 that up to 150 million people could die of bird flu. And though his prediction was far from reality, it was taken seriously at the time.

Since then, there have been intermittent flare-ups of public fears, stoked by the idea that bird flu will become the WHO’s so-called Disease X, a virus with a high death rate that spreads easily and quickly.

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But the species barrier that protects us from bird flu is still in place, and the risk to the public remains extremely low, according to the CDC director.

That is not only reassuring now but also is likely to continue to be the case. The greater danger remains the fear of the virus rather than the virus itself.

But there is one major caveat. The road map, developed by Dr. Fouchier, for a mutation deadly to humans could end up in the wrong hands. And that risk is enough to keep everyone up at night.

Dr. Marc Siegel, a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors, is a professor of medicine and medical director of Doctor Radio at New York University's Langone Health. His latest book is "COVID: the Politics of Fear and the Power of Science." Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @DrMarcSiegel

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can humans get bird flu? Why outbreak isn't cause to fear pandemic